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Rain will return to the ArkLaTex Wednesday night and could continue off and on into Saturday. The heaviest rain will likely be on Thanksgiving afternoon. Warmer temperatures return by the middle of next week.  This could lead to a chance of strong to severe storms.

A mild Thanksgiving:  While it will rain on Thanksgiving, at least the temperatures will not be quite as chilly.  Temperatures on Thanksgiving morning will likely begin in the low to middle 50s over most of the area. Thanks to the expected rain, we won’t see much of a warm-up as daytime highs will range from the 50s over the northwest edge of the area to the middle 60s over the south.

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Clouds and heavy rain on Thanksgiving:   Futurecast still shows that rain will increase over the northwest half of the area Wednesday night.  Thanksgiving day will see lots of rain that could last all day over most of the area and likely will be heaviest during the afternoon.  If severe weather occurs in our region, it will likely be to our south over SW LA and SE TX.  The rain will likely decrease some Thursday night and much of Friday.  As the main upper-level low approaches the area late Friday and Friday night, we will likely see another lengthy round of rain that could last into Saturday morning.  Once the rain moves out Saturday, we will get a couple of days to dry out.

Rainfall potential:  Models continue to indicate some rather impressive rainfall totals from now through Saturday.  Futurecast has backed off a little on its projections showing totals of 1 to 2.5 inches.  A blend of models shows that two to three inches of rain will be possible over all of the ArkLaTex.

Above-normal temperatures & potential severe storms next week:  Once the disturbance responsible for Thanksgiving’s rain finally moves out, we will see a nice warm-up by the end of this weekend and early next week.  By next Tuesday, highs could return to the 70s! 

The price of having the warmer air return is that it will coincide with the arrival of another potentially strong disturbance. Most long-range models agree that severe weather will be on the table with all severe weather threats possible. As of right now, it appears that our risk will be highest late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center is already alerting about this severe weather risk.  It’s somewhat rare for that to happen this far ahead of an event.  Behind this system, we will cool back to the low 60s with another round of rain possible late next week into next weekend.

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