A round of heavy rain still looks likely for Thanksgiving Day. Rain could continue off and on into Saturday. Warmer temperatures return early next week and could lead up to a round of potentially strong to severe storms by the middle of next week.
More mild temperatures are here to stay: Thanks to the return of some sunshine, Tuesday was a warmer day around the ArkLaTex. Temperatures have climbed into the 60s over pretty much all of the area. This more mild air will hang around. With clouds returning Tuesday night, expect temperatures to be warmer than last night. Lows will likely dip into the lower 40s. Daytime highs Wednesday will return to the low to middle 60s. On Thanksgiving day, lows will be above normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Daytime highs will return to the lower 60s despite widespread rain.
Clouds and heavy rain on Thanksgiving: Futurecast still shows that we will begin Tuesday night with a clear sky. Clouds will return to the area Tuesday night. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Wednesday with a chance for some scattered showers over the northwest half of the area. That rain will increase Wednesday night from northwest to southeast. As a front eases into the area on Thanksgiving Day, the rain will likely reach its peak with areas of heavy rain looking likely. We likely will hear some thunder, but severe weather is looking highly unlikely. Look for the threat of rain to continue Thursday night. It will likely become more scattered Friday and Friday night before finally ending Saturday.
Rainfall potential: Models continue to indicate some rather impressive rainfall totals from now through Friday. Futurecast shows that much of the area will receive anywhere from two to three inches of rain. A blend of forecast models also shows rainfall potential of at least two inches for most of the area. Amounts could be slightly lower over the NW quarter of the area.
Above-normal temperatures & strong storms next week: Once the disturbance responsible for Thanksgiving’s rain finally moves out, we will see a nice warm-up by the end of this weekend and early next week. By next Tuesday, highs could return to the 70s! The price of having the warmer air return is that our next disturbance will approach the area by next Wednesday. With the warmer air in place, strong to severe storms will be possible. Obviously, it’s a bit early to speculate on the extent of any severe weather threat. Just be aware that it will be a possibility. Stay Tuned!