The disturbance that brought the strong storms and heavy rain to the ArkLaTex is moving away and the threat of flooding is ending. We will see warmer and drier conditions Friday and the return of some scattered storms Friday night into Saturday.
Where was the rain heaviest?: We had some rather impressive rainfall totals over much of the ArkLaTex Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most of NW LA received at least two inches with many locations in Caddo and Bossier Parishes receiving 5-6 inches. The heaviest rain in the past 24 hours fell in a swath from the Shelby/Panola County line east into central DeSoto Parish. The areas in purple likely received anywhere from six to nearly nine inches of rain. To illustrate just how impressive these totals are, consider that in a typical May, our area receives about 4.5” FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH!!
Futurecast: Futurecast shows that we will likely see drier conditions tonight and Friday. Expect a mostly cloudy sky tonight. Any breaks in the clouds that develop late Thursday will quickly give way to the return of low clouds tonight. Friday will begin with a cloudy sky and will likely end with a mix of sunshine and clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible but rain chances are looking low. Futurecast goes on to show relatively dry conditions Friday night and Saturday, but other hi-res models show another increase in rain chances late Friday night through Saturday. It is possible that storms that develop to our west Friday afternoon may pose a marginal severe weather risk Friday night if they make it to our area. We will continue to see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through the middle of next week. As of right now, rain chances are looking highest Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday.
How much more rain? It still appears that we will continue to see weakness in the upper-level pattern to our west that will keep moisture feeding into our area. This will likely continue through this weekend. By Monday, one final disturbance will usher in some drier air. This will end our rather wet pattern by the middle of next week. Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the coming ten days. Highs will likely remain in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and lower 70s through the weekend and then retreat to the low to middle 60s by the middle of next week. It is possible that we could see the return of some rain by the end of next week.
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