A strong upper-level disturbance will approach the ArkLaTex from the northwest Monday and will likely produce strong to severe storms over most of the area Monday evening and Monday night. The mild temperatures will stick around with more rain Thursday night.
A stormy Monday night: Futurecast shows that thunderstorms will develop over the western half of the area late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The storms will gradually move east through the area with some of the storms becoming strong to severe. The storms will move out of the area late Monday night. As the main upper-low moves through the area Tuesday, we will continue to see lots of clouds with some scattered showers around the area. Some thunder will be possible over the eastern half of the area where the low moves through later in the day. Severe weather is not a concern Tuesday.
SPC Outlook: The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk as this disturbance approaches the area. Late this afternoon and early this evening we will have a chance for a tornado or two mainly over parts of east and northeast Texas. That risk will decrease once we move past midnight. Damaging wind will likely cause most of our severe weather issues, especially over the western half of the area. We will also see a chance for some large hail of up to quarter-sized.
Rainfall potential: Futurecast shows that we will likely receive a decent amount of rain. Most of the ArkLaTex could see 1 to 1.5”. Those areas that don’t see one inch will likely receive at least ½” of rain.
Pleasant temperatures for the rest of the week: It looks like we are done with the cold temperatures for a while. Daytime highs during the next ten days will mainly be in the 70s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s. As of right now, we will see two more disturbances that will bring rain. The first will arrive this Thursday night and Friday morning. The second will bring the threat of some more thunderstorms early next week. Severe weather will once again be possible, but it is a bit early to project the extent of that threat. Stay Tuned.
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