A strong cold front will move through the ArkLaTex Monday night and Tuesday and will bring thunderstorms that could be severe. Heavy rain is also likely. Sunshine returns Wednesday and will likely next around for nearly a week.
Severe weather potential: The timing of the expected cold front Monday night could be good news for the ArkLaTex. While you should still prepare for some severe weather including a chance for a tornado or two, the severe weather risk will be highest Monday afternoon and evening to the west of our area. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there will be a level 3 enhanced severe weather risk over central Texas. In the ArkLaTex our risk will be a level 1 marginal over the northern part of the area and a level 2 slight over the south. Our main concerns will be damaging wind and hail.
Futurecast: Futurecast shows that we will see a clear sky for most of our area for most of the night Sunday night. Clouds will move into the area from west to east late Sunday night into Monday morning. We will likely see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwest half of the area Monday afternoon. The strongest storms will slowly move into and through our area from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. The storms will exit the southeastern edge of the area Tuesday afternoon. We will have to keep an eye on the storms Tuesday. There will be a chance for some severe weather. The longer it takes for the storms to move out, the higher the chance of seeing severe weather Tuesday will be.
Heavy rain: Models continue to indicated that most of the ArkLaTex will likely receive around two inches of rain. It is possible that a few isolated locations could receive more than 3”. It is also possible that some locations receive as little as an inch.
Quiet weather for the rest of the week: A quiet weather pattern will settle into the ArkLaTex from Wednesday through next weekend and the first half of next week. After highs Monday and Tuesday in the 70s, we will cool down into the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Look for another warming trend to follow with highs returning to 80 degrees by the first part of next week. Overnight lows will likely be in the 50s and 60s. Our next chance of rain will probably hold off until next Wednesday.
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