A cold front will bring a round of thunderstorms to the ArkLaTex Thursday night. Cooler air will briefly return Friday with some sunshine. A second disturbance will bring a chance for a few storms Saturday night followed by a rather cool start to next week.
Front brings Thursday night storms: Not much has changed since yesterday’s forecast it still appears that a cold front will move through the ArkLaTex Thursday night and will bring a round of thunderstorms. There is a chance that one or two storms could become severe with some hail but that risk is looking low as hi-res models including Futurecast show the hail threat to be somewhat limited. Futurecast shows that the storms will likely be strongest over the northwest half of the area. Friday will begin with some sunshine over the northern half of the area and lots of clouds and some showers and thunderstorms over the south. Any leftover rain will move out of the area Friday morning. Expect a clear to partly cloudy sky Friday night and an increase in clouds Saturday.
More storms Saturday night? Another fast-moving disturbance will bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. As of right now, it appears that these storms will enter the northern edge of the area very late Saturday evening and then move southeast across the NE half of the area Saturday night. All severe weather threats will be possible with this system including a chance for a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that there is a level 2 slight risk for the northern edge of the area where the storms arrive soonest. There is a great deal of uncertainty with this system, so I’d expect some changes to Saturday night’s outlook.
Rainfall potential: If you add the rain from these two disturbances together, it appears that the heaviest rain will fall on the northern edge of the area. Futurecast shows that this part of the ArkLaTex could see more than 2” of rain from now through Sunday. Amounts will be much lighter over most of the ArkLaTex with totals in the range of ½” to 1”.
Next week: Dry start…wet finish Once this weekend’s disturbance clears our area, we will settle into a dry and cooler weather pattern during the first half of next week.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s. We should warm to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday as our next disturbance approaches. As of right now, it appears that we will see some showers and thunderstorms move across the area late Thursday and especially Thursday night with a few leftover showers possible Friday. Next week will end with cooler air returning as highs will retreat to the 60s. We will likely not see much cold in the next few weeks as it’s looking likely that temperatures will stay well above freezing through next weekend.
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