A very slow-moving cold front will approach the ArkLaTex Thursday and will bring an increasing threat of strong to severe storms late Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday. All severe weather threats will be possible along with heavy rain.
SPC Outlook: The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will still have a slight severe weather risk for most of the area. This means that severe weather issues will be rather scattered. Our biggest issues will likely be damaging wind and the potential of several inches of rain in isolated spots. Large hail and a tornado or two will be possible. The severe weather risk will be confined to the southeastern half of the area Friday but should be more isolated in nature.
Futurecast: Futurecast shows that we will see clouds return to the area Wednesday night. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Thursday morning with a few scattered showers possible. Thunderstorms will begin to develop mainly over the northwest half of the area late Thursday afternoon. These storms will gradually spread to the southeast Thursday evening and Thursday night. Another round of storms could develop and move across the southeast half of the area Friday afternoon. These storms could also become severe, but the severe weather Friday will likely be more concentrated to the south and southeast of the ArkLaTex. Clouds should quickly clear out Friday night and we will see the return of some sunshine to begin the weekend Saturday.
Futurecast rotation: Futurecast still shows that we could see conditions that allow any thunderstorm activity to begin to rotate. The latest shows the best conditions will be over the NW half of the area. Fortunately, the strength of any rotating storms should be rather limited indicating that the tornado threat should be isolated and rather low. Hail will also be possible with the threat of larger hail highest over parts of NE TX
Rainfall potential: Given that the threat of strong storms will linger over most of the ArkLaTex for a longer than normal period, heavy rain could become an issue. Generally speaking, most of the area will see at least one inch of rain. It still appears that a few isolated areas could see more than three inches. This could result in a few isolated reports of flash flooding.
Cooler weekend & more rain next week: Cooler air will return to the ArkLaTex behind the cold front. Highs will dip into the 60s by Sunday and lows will dip into the 40s and low 50s. Warmer air will begin to return to the area early next week. This will result in the return of the threat of rain possibly as soon as Sunday. Our next best chance of heavier rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Most models show that drier weather will settle back in by the end of next week as temperatures warm back to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Check back here for a live update on Thursday & Friday’s severe weather potential Wednesday evening at 8:30 pm.
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