Strong to severe storms are possible through Tuesday
A cold front will ease into the ArkLaTex and stall serving as the trigger for some scattered thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe from now through Tuesday. A hot and mainly dry weather pattern settles in to close this week.
Monday’s severe risk: As of this writing, most hi-res models don’t show much thunderstorm development Sunday night. That could change Monday. Most models indicate that scattered strong to severe storms will develop over the northeast half of the ArkLaTex. Damaging wind will again be our main threat with a few reports of large hail possible. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a marginal severe weather risk Monday and Monday night. This means that any severe weather report should be somewhat isolated.
Tuesday’s severe risk: Most of Tuesday is looking rather dry in the ArkLaTex. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that if we can see a few storms develop, we will have a slight severe weather risk that means that severe weather reports will be scattered. Once again, damaging wind will be our biggest concern. Most hi-res models show that any t’storm activity Tuesday will likely wait until the evening to develop.
Futurecast: Futurecast shows that we will see a partly to mostly cloudy sky over the ArkLaTex tonight with most of the area staying dry. A few isolated storms will be possible. Monday we will see storms develop during the morning over the northeast half of the area. These storms will move out of the area with new storms possibly developing further west in the afternoon mainly north of the stalled front over the northern half of the area. Scattered storms will continue over mainly the northern half of the area Monday evening and will decrease Monday night. Tuesday should be mainly dry with a few scattered storms possible mainly over the eastern half of the area. New storms could develop over the middle of the ArkLaTex Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.
Rain potential: The amount of rain that we see across the ArkLaTex will be somewhat difficult to pinpoint in terms of location. Where we do see storms develop one to three inches of rain will be possible. It’s quite possible that many locations will get no or little rain. Just be aware that we will have the potential of seeing heavy rain anywhere in our area.
Hot next week: During the last half of next week, a rather strong area of upper-level high pressure will slowly build from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This ridge will eliminate the chance of any more rain over our area and also result in some of the hottest temperatures of the summer so far. Daytime highs will warm into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Overnight lows will warm into the middle 70s.
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