A cold front will move through the ArkLaTex Thursday morning and will bring a quick round of strong storms. Wind gusts of over 30 mph will be possible throughout the day. Sunshine returns Friday and this weekend with more rain likely next week.
A windy & warm Thursday: Wednesday was a mostly cloudy and windy day. Temperatures began in the 50s and have returned to the low to middle 70s. We will likely not see much of a drop in temperatures Wednesday night as lows over most of the area will fall into the 60s. The combination of afternoon sunshine and a gusty westerly wind will warm temperatures Thursday. Highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the middle 70s southeast. Non-thunderstorms wind gusts Thursday will likely surpass 30 mph.
Thursday severe weather?: Futurecast shows that we will see thunderstorms will develop well to our west late Wednesday afternoon. They will march across Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday night. The line of storms will approach the western edge of the area late Wednesday night and move across the ArkLaTex Thursday morning. Thursday will likely end with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Sunshine will return Friday and stay in the forecast through the weekend. It will turn much cooler Friday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs Friday will be in the 50s. We should see another quick warming trend this weekend with highs returning to near 70 degrees by Sunday. We should see some cool weather for Saturday’s Krewe of Centaur parade. Temperatures will begin in the lower 60s and fall through the 50s during the evening under a clear sky.
SPC Outlook: The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center still shows a slight severe weather risk for much of the ArkLaTex. This means that we could see a few scattered reports of severe weather. Wind will likely be our biggest concern, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but that risk is looking very low at this time. I still feel that the biggest severe weather risk Thursday will be concentrated to the east of the ArkLaTex over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.
Rainfall potential: Given how fast this disturbance will move across the area, rainfall totals will be around ½” or less for most of the area. Across the northern edge of the area where the storms could be strongest, rainfall totals could approach one inch.
Heavy rain next week?: Fortunately, it appears that we could see a more extended period of rain next week. As of right now, it appears that we could see the threat of rain from Monday into next Thursday. Pretty much every long-range model shows rainfall potential of nearly two to over three inches. Severe weather will be possible next week, especially Monday. Any severe weather will probably be isolated to scattered in nature. Cooler air will begin to return to the area by the middle of next week. By the end of the week, we should see highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Stay Tuned!
