The sunshine that returned to the ArkLaTex Monday will stick around for one more day. We could see some strong storms Wednesday followed by a decent outbreak of severe weather Thursday and Thursday evening. Cooler air returns to end the week.
Warm air to stick around: Monday has proven to be a rather pleasant day with the return of some sunshine in the wake of the rain that move through the area last night and early this morning. Temperatures Monday have warmed into the 70s and will likely get much warmer Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 40s and lower 50s. Daytime highs Tuesday will warm into the low to middle 80s! We will stay rather warm until a strong disturbance moves through the area Thursday. More on that disturbance below.
A day of sun & then some severe weather: Futurecast shows that we will see a mostly clear sky over the ArkLaTex tonight. Expect lots of sunshine to return Tuesday along with a rather breezy southwesterly wind. Clouds will begin to return to the area Tuesday night. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Wednesday with some scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening a few strong storms will be possible but the severe weather risk will be rather low. A much stronger disturbance will bring some storms to all of the ArkLaTex Thursday and Thursday night. It appears that ALL of the ingredients could be in place to create a decent outbreak of severe weather including the chance of a few strong tornadoes.
It would be a good idea to review your severe weather plan in the next few days. Keep in mind that we are still a few days away from this event and we could still see some changes in the outlook leading up to Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a marginal severe weather risk Wednesday & Wednesday night followed by an Enhanced risk Thursday. Don’t be surprised to see a level 4 Moderate risk by the time Thursday gets here.
Rainfall totals will likely be highest over the northeastern half of the area where totals could be in the range of 1-2”. Amounts could be quite a bit lighter over the southern half of the area.
A sunny & cooler end to the week: Sunshine will likely return to the ArkLaTex Friday along with some cooler temperatures. Highs Friday will struggle to make it into the 60s. Lows from Friday through Monday will likely be in the 40s. Next weekend is looking pretty nice with highs in the 60s and low 70s under a mostly sunny sky. Our next chance for some showers and thunderstorms will likely hold off until the middle of next week.
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