SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A line of thunderstorms is brushing the northern edge of the ArkLaTex this morning. The early morning severe weather threat has come to an end, but we could see an isolated severe storm redevelop in Arkansas or Louisiana this afternoon.
It will be a warm and breezy day. These morning temperatures in the low 70s with high humidity make it feel like a late Spring or Summer morning. Wind will be out of the south at 15 miles per hour, with occasional gusts between 20 and 30 miles per hour. The south breeze off the Gulf Of Mexico will keep us unseasonably warm and humid, highs will be in the upper 70s this afternoon. Temperatures will fall this afternoon across the northern ArkLaTex as a cold front moves in, prepare for afternoon temperatures in the 50s north of I-30.
Tuesday afternoon forecast high temperatures
Isolated severe threat later today: A cold front northwest of the ArkLaTex, and wind outflow from early day thunderstorms will help to trigger an additional round of storms once the temperatures become warmer this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has a ‘Marginal Risk’ outlook for severe weather in Arkansas and Louisiana for any storms that manage to develop this afternoon through this evening. A Marginal Risk means 1 or 2 storms may become severe in the entire outlook area, but widespread severe weather is not expected. High wind will be the primary severe weather threat.
Severe weather risk Tuesday p.m.
Rain showers and isolated non-severe storms are expected to continue this morning near and north of I-30 in northeast Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The redevelopment of rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur early this afternoon. The window for storms is small with rain expected to taper off after sunset in most areas, with a lingering shower south of I-20 overnight.
Colder air arrives tonight: The cold front that is bringing today’s storms will stall between I-20 and I-30 tonight and tomorrow. This will bring a big spread in temperatures as cold air settles into the northern ArkLaTex. Lows will range from the 30s north of I-30, to the low 50s in Shreveport, to near 60 degrees in Texarkana.
The tricky temperature forecast will continue tomorrow, as the front remains stalled across the I-20 corridor. Cold air will keep highs in the 40s across the northern ArkLaTex, with some warmer air remaining south of I-20 where temperatures may reach the upper 60s and low 70s.
Rain continues Wednesday and Thursday: The stalled cold front and the clash of cool air north of the front, and humid/warm air to our south will keep scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms going Wednesday and Thursday. The rain Wednesday will be scattered in nature, and a washout scenario is not expected, but the higher rainfall totals will be across the northern edge of the ArkLaTex. Additional rainfall amounts through Friday will be half an inch, to 1 inch, with isolated higher amounts north of I-30.
A final push of cold air will arrive Thursday night, and while the precipitation should remain rain in most areas, there may be a brief change over to freezing rain or snow between midnight and 6 a.m. Friday near McCurtain County, in Oklahoma. Friday will be cold with highs in the 40s.
Rain returns Saturday: It will be a short break from the rain Friday morning through Friday night, as a final disturbance will move in Saturday. The chance for rain will increase during the afternoon and evening with scattered showers expected across most of the ArkLaTex. Highs will be in the 40s Saturday, too cold for any thunderstorms or severe weather. Temperatures are expected to drop to near freezing Saturday night, so we could see a brief window for a winter mix across the northern ArkLaTex, but it’s too far out to say with any certainty.
Look for dry air to finally settle into the region Sunday and Monday ending rainfall, with highs in the 50s.
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