A strong cold front will move through the ArkLaTex Tuesday bringing the threat of severe storms with damaging wind, a few tornadoes, and heavy rain. Much colder air will settle in behind the front and will likely stick around through Christmas.
10 pm Monday update: The latest run of Futurecast is running about an hour later that its previous run. Latest ETAs: Texarkana 1- 3 pm & Shreveport 3 – 5 pm.
A stormy Tuesday: Another round of severe weather is looking promising Tuesday. All severe weather threats will be possible. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be our primary threats. We will also have a few scattered reports of large hail. The severe threat will likely be highest over the southern half of the area in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana where the storms arrive later in the day. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that these areas have an enhanced severe weather risk. That’s a 3 on the 1 to 5 risk scale. The northern half of the area will have a marginal to slight risk. See the latest outlooks from SPC below.
Storm Timing: Futurecast shows that a broken line of storms will enter the NW corner of the area late Tuesday morning or very early Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then move southeast and eventually move out of our viewing area sometime Tuesday evening. As of right now, Texarkana can expect the worst during the early afternoon between 12 & 2 pm. Shreveport will see the storms arrive between 2 & 4 pm. The storms should arrive in Natchitoches early in the evening between 6 & 8 pm. Leftover rain will end from west to east late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We should see the return of some needed sunshine Wednesday.
Tornado risk: There will be a chance of a few tornadoes and maybe a strong tornado. Below is a snapshot from Futurecast that shows where we could see rotating storms. This risk could be highest to the east and southeast of Shreveport. Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that the rest of the area is out of the woods. Tornadoes will be possible anywhere. This simply shows where the risk COULD be highest.
Rainfall potential: The storms likely will bring pockets of rather heavy rain. Many, if not most locations will see rainfall totals of less than one inch. Futurecast shows scattered areas of one to two-inch amounts. Other hi-res models show that scattered areas of two to three inches will be possible.
Cooler air settles in for good? Much colder air will settle into the ArkLaTex behind Tuesday’s front. Highs Wednesday will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will likely be the warmest day that we experience for the next few weeks. Starting Thursday, highs will be in the 50s and will stay there into next week. It’s possible that we could see highs in the 40s by the middle of next week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 30s. Rain should be limited during this time with a chance late this weekend and again by the middle of next week. A few models are hinting at a chance of a rain/snow mix late next week. Take this with a grain of salt as we are ten days away from this disturbance’s arrival. Just be aware that it will be a possibility. Stay Tuned!
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