Ukraine in 2012. A country that everything of Europeand half the world is looking at. Because this year the European Football Championship is taking place in Ukraine, just like in Poland. Ukraine presents itselfas a modern country with a stablepolitical method, good relations with other countriesand residents who pull together. Just two years later itall falls apart. Declarations have rocked Kyiv and many other parts of the country. In somecases, civil war-like provisions pass. In the end, the President has to go. A brand-new head of stateis elected and a crusade broke out in the East that will last formany years. Even in 2022, Ukrainehas not yet come to rest. It could get even worse, thereare fears that Ukraine will beinvaded by neighboring Russia. The conflictbetween the countries has been brewing for months. And it could escalate. Will Ukraine certainly beattacked by Russia soon? What would happen then and what isthe background of the conflict? That’s what it’s about now .( Light music) If you will, it’s a signature that has caused alot of disorder in Ukraine. More precisely, a signature thatwas initially not plied. The humankind who refusedis here, Viktor Yanukovych. President of Ukraine in 2013 and a close friend ofVladimir Putin, President of Russia. What Yanukovych is supposed to sign does not suit him and his government at all. It is a so-calledassociation agreement that aims to bind Ukraine closerto the European Union. It is about free trade, fighting corruption and security policy. The EU wants to work more closely with Ukraine on all these things. But that’s not all the EU is about. Itis also important to the member states to tie Ukraine more closelyto the West. After all, Ukraine isnot only the largest country in Europe after Russia in terms of area, but likewise a countrythat directly frontier Russia.Strategically this is very interesting. Not exclusively for the EU, but alsofor the protection alliance NATO, of which numerous EUcountries are members. Yanukovych knows that Putinis not at all fervent about the plans. So he first refusesto sign the agreement. What he underestimatesis the mood in “the two countries “. Following completion of 2013, dozens of thousands of parties, especially in the capital Kyiv, took to the streets to protest. They meeton Maidan Square, which later likewise became Euromaidan, because it’smainly people wishing to bind parties more closely tothe European Union who are protesting there.Violence breaks out on all sides and 100 peopledie over the coming weeks. At some top the pressure is so greatthat Yanukovych has to resign. A new manis elected President. He signs the agreement, confining Ukraine more closely to the EU. He’s trying to restart. but this reboot hasbeen ill-omened from the start. On the one hand, because Petro Poroshenkois anything but a flawless legislator. He is a rich oligarch accused of criminal activities. On the other hand, because a newconstruction website is quickly emerging for Ukraine, the east of the countryand also the Crimean peninsula. Because, and this is also part of thetruth, among the people taking to the streets against Ukraine’s too closeties to Russia, thereare not only pleasant democrats, but too nationalists prepared to useviolence.You could also say right-wing militants. Following completion of 2013, many of them unite in the organization Prawyj Sector, Right Sector. And they use violenceagainst private security force. You are responsible for many of the dead onMaidan Square. However, the right-wing mission is far from over with the fall of the old-time chairwoman. Their militias are stillon the move in Ukraine. This is where Russia comes in. Many members of Russian minorities live in eastern Ukraineand Crimea in particular. For example, there is indeed around 60 percent Russiansin Crimea back then.Russia says: We are concernedabout the security of its our countrywomen. Precise because of the right-wing fanaticals, Russia is taking action. First covert, then more and more obvious. It is Russian-controlled militias that are invading both eastern Ukraineand Crimea, tryingto take control. From a Russian point of view, this is going very successfully in Crimea. In early 2014, pro-Russian militiasoccupied parliament and propagandized through the referendum. According to the militias, this referendum will decide that Crimea will be separated from Ukraine and has become one of the RussianFederation.The problem is, according to observers, around the referendum there was a lot of intimidationagainst those who wanted Crimea to remainin Ukraine. And the referendum transgressed theConstitution of Ukraine. Because, just like in Germany, a region can only separate itselffrom the rest of the country if there has beena vote on it throughout the country. So if Bavariawants to become independent, there has to bea referendum across Germany. For this reason, the West still does not recognizethe dissociation of Crimea. A difficult thing, evenfor planned assistances like Google Maps. There is currentlya smashed order between Ukraine and Crimea. In this case, nonetheless, everything used to work for Russia. Things area bit different in eastern Ukraine. It is true that pro-Russian forceshave taken control there and declared independence in regions. But the military ofUkraine opposes this.Heavy fighting ensued andthe fighting continues to this day. Because despite various meetingsof legislators, agreements, conventions, there is still fighting in eastern Ukraine, for seven years. Sometimes one slope doesn’tstick to the agreements, sometimes the other. A weapon-free buffer zoneand disarmament were was approved in the Belarusian city of Minsk as early as 2015, but this isrepeatedly contravened. The Russian government says right-wing extremists from Ukraine are constantly threatening the Russians in the east. Pro-Russian armies wouldnot comply with conditions, says Ukraine. That hasn’tchanged since 2014. So there’s contend in the east of the countrybetween pro-Russian groups and the Ukrainian army. The statu has been getting worse and worse since April 2021. Because around 100,000 Russian soldiersare now said to have converged along the approximately 2,000 -kilometer border between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine says and fears that Russia is aboutto invade the country. Not genuine at all, says Russia. The soldiers would be there, but there would be no planfor a raid. What is the reasonfor the brand-new proliferation? What are the positions? Let’s take a closer lookand start: Ukraine feelsconstantly threatened by Russia. What happened to Crimea in 2014 is a national trauma that countless Ukrainiansfear a reproduction. The current government of formeractor and comedian Vladimir Zelenskyis pro-European and pro-Western and has thereforerepeatedly strove assist from its partners in the West. For example, the United Regime alone hassupported the Ukrainian military with more than one billion euros. Help is also coming from other NATO countries. For example dronings from Turkey or armed shipsfrom Great Britain. From Ukraine’s point of view, this is essential for survival. Vitali Klitschko, former boxer and mayor of Kyiv, recently wrote the following in an section for the Bild newspaper, the addressee was the new federal government: The Ukrainian government’s great concern is that Russia will launch an attack on Ukrainian national subject. And in notime the country will be destabilized and dashed into chaos that couldend up becoming politically dependent on Russia, as happened in Crimea. And these dreads aretaken seriously in the West. The European Union and theUS agree that we must keep up the pressure on Russia. On the one handwriting, by expand existing sanctions and measures againstRussia. On the other hand, bythreatening even stricter measures if Russia should actuallyattack Ukraine.Among other things, it is being discussed that Russia will be excluded from the international numeral systemSWIFT and that the contentious gas pipelineNord Stream 2 will not be put into operation. The first asses in particular wouldhit Russia hard-handed, peculiarly Russia’s economy. That is exactly what Ukraineand the West want to achieve: deter Russia andkeep it away from the country’s borders.They too want to finally make progressin eastern Ukraine, and ideallyend the conflict. And Russia? That’s where we come in: For Russia, it’sabout something very fundamental. something biggerthan the current conflict, namely over a hope made to the then head ofthe Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, when it came to the reunification ofGermany in 1990. NATO will notexpand further east when Germany isreunited. The AmericanSecretary of State at the time, James Baker, and the then Federal Chancellor, Helmut Kohl, both create that oral promise to Gorbachev. But that’s the merits of the communication, really verbally. Thiswas never stated in a contract. I have connected you to more about thisin the info carton. However, the Soviet Unionand later too Russia reliedon this predict and they can be attributed to it to this day.Vladimir Putin’s major concern is that NATO is right in frontof its own country’s borders. This is exactly what would happen if Ukraine becamea member of NATO. Harmonizing to NATO, this is not currently projected, but Ukrainehas been pushing for some time to be included in a Membership ActionPlan, which would be the first steptowards NATO membership. Russia is therefore annoyed andfeels menaced. For years, Putin has viewedwith great disfavor the Western NATO countriessupporting Ukraine with arms and hampering a seriesof military exercises there. Should Ukraine becomea member of NATO, a red word would be crossed, says a spokesman for Putin. He has made an offer to NATOand is waiting to see if it will be accepted. The crucial point are: There are currently six more points. You can find more about thisin the info casket connected. If all of this is observed, says Russia, says Vladimir Putin, then we are ready towithdraw ourselves and our weapons. Then there is relaxation. And how did NATO react and how isthe conflict going in general? Says NATO chiefJens Stoltenberg.This means that if NATOaccommodates Russia, then it mustalso happen the other way around. At the same time, the West is warningRussia of a further escalation. If Russia were to attack Ukraine, that would have been the case, says Stoltenberg: But how likelyis such an attack? NATO thinksit’s within the realm of potential. Russia sayswe don’t intend to do that at all. Professionals find thatboth are somehow genuine. It is clear that Russia cannot really have any great interest in a military conflict with NATO. Pressure yes, affect no. That was mostlyVladimir Putin’s tactic, except in Crimea. A war in Ukraineis quite possible, but not very likely.A diplomatic solution, which is probably already being worked on in the background, is morelikely. A resumptionof the Normandy format, in which France and Germany mediated between Ukraine and Russia in Normandy, being discussed. The central issue is, is NATOactually uttering concessions? And what would be the price for that? That’s probably what it’sgoing to be about in the future. But it can still be different. 100,000 soldiers at the border, if the digit is actually correct, they coulddo quite a bit. What do you think? How will things continue in Ukraine and which diplomatic meanswould be right? Write it in the info carton, let’s discuss the matter, but satisfy ever is equitable. Next to me you will find a video aboutRussian President Vladimir Putin and a video on a completely differenttopic, namely how transmission business treattheir employees. Feel free to take a look there too. Thanks for watching, see younext time ..
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