SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – The cold air is long gone, and we will transition to a very active weather pattern today. There is a low-end threat for severe weather later this afternoon into tonight, with a higher risk for severe storms Monday.
Severe threat 1 (late this afternoon into tonight): It may be slightly unusual to open the door this morning and find it’s quite warm. Early-day temperatures will be in the 60s with highs reaching the low to mid-70s this afternoon.
A strong Pacific low-pressure system is moving across Texas. As it collides with the warm/humid air over the ArkLaTex this afternoon we will see a strong line of storms develop during the late afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a ‘Marginal Risk’ of severe weather. This is a level 1 threat on the 1 to 5 scale. This means isolated severe storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected. The primary threat will be a few damaging wind gusts, but there is a window for a brief tornado to spin up during the late afternoon and evening.
Severe weather risk late this afternoon into tonight
Storm timing: Although we may see a few showers and isolated storms between sunrise and 3 p.m., the thunderstorms capable of severe weather hazards will develop and move into east Texas between 4 p.m. and sunset. The arrival of the storms in Texarkana will be near sunset, with the storms pushing into Shreveport/Bossier after sunset (and perhaps closer to 10 p.m. or midnight). The risk of severe storms will go down after midnight.
In addition to a few strong storms, all locations will see a threat of heavy rainfall. Widespread accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected, but slow-moving storms may bring accumulations over 3 inches in some areas. The flash flood threat is low, but a few flooded roadways and intersections will be possible where the heaviest rain occurs.
Potential rainfall accumulations through Friday afternoon
Dry weather for most of Friday and New Year’s weekend: We will likely see lingering clouds and rain showers Friday, but there will not be any severe weather or heavy rain threat. Once the rain wraps up we are going to enjoy splendid weather New Year’s weekend.
New Year’s Eve will be partly cloudy Saturday with a high near 70 degrees. If you’re outside at midnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s with a light breeze, pleasant for celebrating outside under the moonlight.
New Year’s Day will be mostly cloudy and warm with a high in the low to mid-70s.
Severe weather risk Monday
Severe weather threat 2 arrives Monday: We won’t get a break from strong thunderstorms for long, as a cold front will make a charge at the ArkLaTex Monday. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the area for severe weather. The details and timing won’t come into focus until the weekend, but this is the kind of setup where all severe weather hazards (wind, hail, tornadoes, flooding) will be possible. Right now we are leaning towards an afternoon and evening threat.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible with this system. If you’re keeping track, that means between the storms today and early next week we could receive up to 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in the next 5 days.
Get exclusive severe weather details on storms as they approach your area by downloading the Arklatex Weather Authority app, now available in the App Store and Google Play
