SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A severe weather outbreak is likely to occur in the ArkLaTex today into tonight. There may be 2 potential rounds of severe storms. The severe weather ingredients are extremely high, and confidence is high that there will be damaging storms. Everyone should review their severe weather safety plan and know where to go if severe weather threatens their location.
Threats: The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the ArkLaTex in a rare ‘Moderate Risk’ outlook. On a scale of 1 to 5, this is a level 4 threat. Widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 miles per hour, long-track strong tornadoes, and very large hail up to golf ball or egg-sized are possible.
Storm threats Thursday afternoon into Thursday night
Storm triggers: A very warm and humid airmass is in place at the surface providing the fuel and uplift needed to sustain the storms. We are awaiting the trigger, which will be a very strong Pacific low moving across Texas. This will drive a cold front into the ArkLatex later in the day bringing the wind shear and colder air aloft to get the storms going.
Timing: (SEVERE STORMS COULD ARRIVE IN 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS)
Round 1 (Uncertain, but highly volatile): We do have non-severe thunderstorms and rain showers passing through this morning. After the morning round of rain, temperatures will rise to around 80 degrees this afternoon. The daytime heating alone could begin to trigger discrete thunderstorms by the early to mid-afternoon (1-3 p.m.). While this round is uncertain, if it is able to develop, these storms will have the highest likelihood of bringing a long-track strong tornado, and very large hail. This round is most likely to develop in northeast Texas and move quickly across all areas near and north of I-20 where the Moderate Risk outlook is in place.
Round 2 (More certain, brings all severe weather hazards): As the cold front arrives in the late afternoon and early evening (5-7 p.m.) it will trigger a line of thunderstorms. These storms will also initially be capable of tornadoes and very large hail. As the night goes on, wide swaths of damaging wind gusts will be possible. The wind gusts with the storms could be comparable to a weak tornado today. As we usually shelter when a tornado warning is issued, consider treating severe thunderstorm warnings the same today, and shelter away from windows and doors. The severe weather threat will end by midnight with cooler and breezy conditions taking over tonight and tomorrow.
How to prepare: Review your severe weather safety plan at home and at work today. If you do not have a plan, have one in place by noon. A typical safe place in severe weather is the lowest level of your home or office, in an interior room or hallway. The idea is to put as many walls between you and the outside as possible to protect yourself from flying debris. Consider placing bike or football helmets in your safe room and wear them while sheltering to protect your head.
An interior bathroom or closet on the lowest level of your building is the best storm shelter
The 2 worst places to be during severe weather are in a mobile home or in a vehicle. All severe weather fatalities in the ArkLaTex in 2022 occurred in mobile homes. Consider staying with family, friends, or neighbors that have sturdy, well-anchored homes. In the event you are caught in a tornado warning in a mobile home, you are safer to evacuate the home and lay on your stomach, as low as possible in a nearby ditch or ravine, covering your head and neck.
Have multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings: Enable wireless emergency alerts in the settings of your mobile phone, consider a NOAA weather radio, and download our weather app which will alert you to nearby storms. We will keep this story updated throughout the day, visit this link again for updates.
