SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – After a day of widespread severe weather, including damaging hail reports throughout the ArkLaTex, another day of storms is in the forecast. We could see an isolated severe storm this morning, but the most likely timeframe for severe weather will be this afternoon into tonight.
Severe weather risk Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night
The Storm Prediction Center has a level 3 ‘Enhanced Risk’ for severe thunderstorms in the forecast for much of Arkansas, Louisiana, and east Texas. This means numerous severe storms are expected, including a few intense storms. Large hail, quarter to golf ball sized or larger will be the main threat, with a secondary threat for damaging wind gusts, and the lowest threat will be for an isolated tornado.
A stalled front and an area of low pressure near Dallas will continue to be the trigger for the storm which will also be fueled by the warm and humid air that will build in throughout the day. An initial round of isolated storms is possible by the late morning. Thunderstorms will increase, becoming widespread during the late afternoon and evening when temperatures are at their warmest. Thunderstorms may continue overnight in Arkansas and Louisiana posing a severe weather risk until the early morning hours Thursday.
Given widespread rainfall accumulations over 2 inches Tuesday, it won’t take much rain to trigger localized flooding of roads, creeks, and poor drainage areas. The flood threat will be highest in the northern ArkLaTex where the heaviest rain has fallen in the past 24 hours.
Flash flooding risk today
High temperatures will be tricky to nail down with the expected rainfall today, but most areas should be in the mid to upper 80s, reaching the 90s where the rain will hold off until the late afternoon or evening.
Wednesday expected high temperatures
Storms end Thursday, heat advisories may be on the way through the weekend: High pressure will build tomorrow as our current storm system moves out of the region. Rain will likely end with partly cloudy skies and a south breeze bringing high temperatures in the mid-90s. The recent rainfall will keep the ground damp leading to very high humidity. Heat index or ‘feels like’ temperatures may reach 105 degrees which could lead to our first Heat Advisory of 2023 by tomorrow or Friday.
Aside from an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday the pattern will remain dry through the weekend. Weekend highs will be in the upper 90s, perhaps reaching the 100-degree mark late in the weekend into early next week.
