A cold front will move through the ArkLaTex late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning bringing a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. The severe weather threat looks highest over the eastern edge of the area with a tornado possible
Wednesday severe weather: A strong disturbance will push a cold front through the ArkLaTex Wednesday. Thunderstorms will develop to the west of our area Tuesday afternoon and move east across Texas and Oklahoma before arriving over the NW edge of our area very late Tuesday night. The main threat from this line will be damaging straight-line wind. The tornado threat will begin to increase late Wednesday morning over the eastern edge of the ArkLaTex. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that areas east of Shreveport and Texarkana will have an enhanced to moderate severe weather risk or 3 and 4 on the risk scale. The severe weather threat should be over for almost all of our area by noon Wednesday.
Storm timing: Hi-res models including Futurecast are in good agreement that we will see the line move into the northwest edge of the area between 5 and 6 am. It will arrive in Texarkana between 8 and 9 am and in Shreveport between 9 & 10 am. The line should then begin to increase in intensity as it enters the eastern third of the area later Wednesday morning. You can clearly see the uptick in storm intensity late Wednesday morning east of Shreveport and Texarkana. The line of storms should exit the ArkLaTex between noon and 1 pm. Keep in mind that if the line moves through the area slower and later than expected, then the stronger it will be.
Tornado risk: Futurecast shows two possible areas of the biggest concern for tornadoes. The first will be as the storms enter the NW corner of the area very late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Here the risk is looking rather low but tornadic activity cannot be ruled out. The biggest area of concern will develop as the storms increase Wednesday morning. Futurecast has been persistent in showing an increase in rotation potential over NC LA and SC AR. You can see these two areas in the maps above.
Rainfall potential: Given the speed at which Wednesday morning’s storms will move through the area, flooding will likely not be much of an issue. Most of the area will receive ½ to 1” of rain. Higher totals will be possible where the storms will be stronger over the eastern edge of the area.
Sunshine returns but for how long? We will settle into a quiet weather pattern with some sunshine returning to much of the ArkLaTex Wednesday afternoon. That sunshine will likely stick around through Friday. Our next chance of rain will return Friday night into Saturday. A stronger disturbance will threaten the area next Monday night and Tuesday.
Get exclusive severe weather details on storms as they approach your area by downloading the Arklatex Weather Authority app now available in the App Store and Google Play
