There is a chance of severe thunderstorms on Saturday across North Texas. The most likely timeframe will be from mid-afternoon into the evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Central and North Texas in a slight (level 2) risk for Saturday. The risk extends north into Oklahoma and to the east in parts of Arkansas and Louisiana. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats, but a low tornado threat will exist as well.
We have had several thunderstorms over the past few days with little in the way of any severe storms. This will change on Saturday as winds in the mid-atmosphere will be increasing. Those stronger jet stream winds can lead to increased wind shear which will help develop more organized severe storms. We tend to see stronger wind shear more in the early to mid-spring, but it can still occur out through mid-June.
The chance of storms is not overly high, therefore not everyone will have a storm. Friday will likely be dry, followed by a 40% chance of storms Saturday. Dry weather returns for Sunday and beyond.
Saturday could potentially have two rounds of storms: one in the morning, followed by stronger storms in the afternoon and evening. While the exact timing is still in question, this is how one computer model suggests the radar will look like Saturday afternoon:
The storms will move into East Texas Saturday evening, and eventually into Louisiana later Saturday night.
Again, not everyone will get a storm. However, given the fact that any storms could produce strong winds, hail and lightning, it will be a good idea to stay weather aware on Saturday.
