The threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger in the ArkLaTex through the rest of this week, this weekend, and possibly the beginning of next week. Much of next week will be warm and dry with lower humidity. Severe weather should remain isolated.
More widespread rain Wednesday with cooler temperatures: An upper-level disturbance is moving to the south of the ArkLaTex Tuesday and has produced scattered showers and thunderstorms that will move north through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. These storms will likely decrease in intensity Tuesday night. Rain will become more widespread Wednesday and with less sunshine, expect cooler temperatures. Lows Wednesday morning will likely be in the mid to upper 60s. Daytime highs Wednesday afternoon will struggle to make it into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Futurecast: Futurecast shows the rain that will move north through the area this evening and tonight. A few of the storms could be rather strong but any severe weather threat will be isolated. This rain will decrease Tuesday night but that won’t last long. We will stay cloudy during the day Wednesday and more widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will move across the area. The rain will likely be most widespread Wednesday afternoon and then decrease Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Again, severe weather can’t totally be ruled out, but the risk is looking very low. If we have any severe weather issues, they will remain very isolated. Below is the latest 36-hr loop from Futurecast and an 18-hr loop from the HRRR model. This model creates a new forecast every hour.
Rainfall potential: Given the continued scattered nature of the rain that is expected over the next few days, it’s no surprise that Futurecast shows that we will likely see a wide range of rainfall totals across the ArkLaTex. It’s likely that some areas get very little rain. On the other hand, scattered locations could receive one to two inches.
10-day rain pattern: It still appears that we will continue to see weakness in the upper-level pattern to our west that will keep moisture feeding into our area. This will likely continue through this weekend. By Monday, one final disturbance will usher in some drier air. This will end our rather wet pattern by the middle of next week. Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the coming ten days. Highs will likely remain in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and lower 70s through the weekend and then retreat to the low to middle 60s by the middle of next week.
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