We will likely see another round of scattered strong to severe storms over parts of the ArkLaTex Wednesday evening. After a mainly dry Thursday, a quick round of storms will be possible Thursday evening. Dry weather then settles in with much hotter temperatures.
Severe weather chances today & tonight: Strong to severe storms have returned to mainly the northern half of the ArkLaTex Wednesday. Large hail and damaging wind have been the biggest issues once again. These storms will continue through Wednesday evening and will likely end Wednesday night. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a slight to enhanced severe weather risk that should end Wednesday night.
Below is the latest run of the HRRR model for the next 18 hours. This model has done a great job with the placement of storms over the past few days.
Severe Weather Thursday night? As of right now, SPC does not indicate that severe weather will be an issue for Thursday night and Friday. The loop of Futurecast below agrees with that, however, the morning run of the HRRR model does show more storms developing Thursday evening. It is possible that if these storms develop, they could bring another threat of damaging wind and large hail. The HRRR shows that the storms could be most numerous Thursday night over the NE half of the area NE of a line from Clarksville to Shreveport to Natchitoches. This would include NE TX, SE OK, SW AR, and the NE half of NW LA.
Rain potential: It still appears that the heaviest rain from now through Thursday night will fall over the northeast half of the area. Here rainfall totals of one to two inches will be quite widespread. We could see pockets that receive over three inches. Below is the latest run of the HRRR model that shows rainfall potential for the next 18 hours.
Heat to replace the rain: Heading into the weekend, a rather strong area of upper-level high pressure will slowly build north from Mexico, This ridge will eliminate the chance of any more rain over our area and also result in some of the hottest temperatures of the summer so far. Daytime highs will warm into the upper 90s. Triple digits will be possible in spots. Overnight lows will warm into the middle 70s. Once the rain ends Wednesday night, it’s possible that we could go more than a week before the chance of rain returns.
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