The companion of this episode is Dom Maklerski XTB. I urge you to open up a demo account, link in the summary. By opening a demo account you support the development of my channel. Thanks. Hi this afternoon. Just how a lot should a buck be? Thoughts on Thanksgiving – – this is the theme of this blog post. Obviously, at the very beginning, I encourage you to subscribe, include comments and give sort if you assume that these products have some value for you. And of program, I notify you that all the charts that have been downloaded and install to develop this entry originated from 2 systems: xStation5 as well as Bloomberg. Allow'' s begin! Just how much should a dollar be? Ideas on Thanksgiving. There is no United States session today, so the marketplace is devoid of a herd leader and also we create extremely little volatility, which we see in virtually all possession classes.And it will probably be like this up until completion these days ' s session as well as probably only tomorrow early morning will certainly bring us a boost. Nonetheless, it is now worth taking into consideration in theory what should be and also where are the fear value degrees that are marked as stability points, which deserve keeping in mind, which signify where the rate needs to be, if all basic elements are thought about. The very first chart I would love to show is the habits of the US Buck versus the Euro. And also below, this extremely long-lasting chart of the eurodollar shows that each return above the parity level means going into once again inside a several-year upward network, a down network, and also in this instance it is an indication that the US dollar has the possible to damage, not strengthen.And of training course, this is a wonderful hazard to all those that wish that the
United States buck will remain to reinforce. This is also the danger of a procedure called short squeeze, i.e. squeezing short placements on the euro buck, i.e. long positions in the US dollar. As we will certainly see in the medium-term graph, in this situation the medium-term perspective offers us a picture that around the degrees of 1.0551, 06.10 we have a focus of a number of important resistances that can be tested soon. If the trends that we are currently seeing in the financial markets continue, i.e. the process of fleeing from the United States dollar to take the chance of, if it proceeds. As well as today ' s session generally validates that the other day there was a reoccurrence of the US dollar ' s weakening pattern after the PMI information for the US, which were even worse, ie held off the possibility of further rates of interest walkings. As well as certainly the US dollar doesn ' t like that because in the next chart we see what the Eurodollar 1 link'is right currently between the 2 year US and German bonds and it resembles the link is very, extremely tight.In the next chart, I would love to reveal what is the relationship between the actions of the euro and its weakness or stamina versus the S&P securities market index. In this instance, we additionally see plainly that each procedure of returning to the upward trend on the euro buck likewise indicates stress for the supply indices to fall. Generally a danger to be bought. And also I believe it ' s worth remembering this chart and also its final thoughts, due to the fact that if the eurodollar returns to a descending pattern, it will certainly also imply a siphoning of funding from around the globe. And once more, reduces in all those properties that are related to the threat of supply indices, products, markets, bitcoin.And of course, if the upward pattern is preserved, after that naturally the opposite sensation will certainly proceed, which will favor such energetic ones as, for instance, now.
Polish bonds or Polish shares, or normally Polish zloty. In the following chart, I wish to reveal exactly how the efficiency people 5-year bond returns currently compares to that of the dollar yen. And also this chart shows much more plainly that the effect of earnings behavior on the actions of the Japanese yen and also normally the weak point or stamina of the United States dollar is huge. If US bonds are gotten, the United States buck against the yen falls, the Yen is after that gotten and the propensity is for all other pairs pertaining to one to proceed their descending trend.Conversely, yields that increase often tend to increase in sets associated to 1. So the final thought for those FX investors who like 1 buck yen pairs, as an example, is to watch the habits of US bond returns
in parallel, since if. United States bond returns will be sustained by increases or reduces in the dollar -yen set, and afterwards the risk of holding a brief or lengthy setting clearly lowers, and the likelihood of success in such a situation clearly boosts. This is a functional verdict for all those who buy the currency market in order to look at it in parallel. If we are trading pairs relevant to one, specifically the buck yen, just how do United States bonds behave, in this situation, fives? An additional intriguing graph, I would such as to most likely to the response to the concern of just how much the dollar should be as thoughts on Thanksgiving Day, because I discovered a really intriguing article, and in it a chart showing where the eurodollar exchange price need to be.If we were led by the fundamental version of offices and also in this situation, as we see, the eurodollar exchange rate in the training course stage should be around the absolutely no factor 91, as well as now we are around 1.0 4, which implies we still have a 14%overvaluation of the euro, not the toughness of the United States buck.
So in this case, according to this version, presuming that markets have a tendency to balance levels, then according to this design, the descending trend needs to proceed. So I ' m additionally really interested to see if the markets will certainly come back to get closer to the fundamental prices design within the basic version, or if we ' re visiting a crossover of even more and extra essential pricing inconsistencies regarding exactly how the market is actually behaving.And obviously, will certainly it have any type of value for the valuation. However, the actions of this model reveals that the basic pattern is generally preserved. It ' s also really interesting what happens next if there are updates to this, this eurodollar pricing design. Naturally you will. You will understand it, so I motivate you to find back to my network as often as feasible. In another interesting graph, I would love to reveal exactly how the internet placement of hedge fund supervisors as well as property monitoring are behaving. Once more, it seems that those that take care of assets are usually net-long in the euro and also those of common funds are net-short. However as a whole, the recent increase in the euro buck is beginning to motivate financial investment funds to get in a net long position in the euro.Will that occur? We ' ll see. And also now a handful of fascinating facts regarding the link, i.e. the connection in between the habits of the US buck and also all type of interesting other hands. But at the really starting I wish to reveal the connection in between the habits of the US buck index as well as bush funds hedge funds, however concentrated on macroeconomic data in the macro sphere as well as you can simply see that the results this year of these investment funds, hedge funds concentrated on'the macro round are carefully pertaining to the United States buck. If the United States dollar strengthens, these funds earn, they have a raising favorable rate of return. But if the US buck decreases, so do these common funds.The final thought is obvious that macro funds are now highly geared to go long on the US dollar as well as efficiency is extremely heavily based on this. And also when we see what this relationship remains in historical terms, we see that the connection enhances with each succeeding month. So the verdict is noticeable that these funds are based on the United States buck, counting on its additional fortifying. And also now a handful of various other interesting relationships. Connection. At the very start, I wish to reveal the relationship matrix in a rather broad sense, to ensure that each of you can figure it out on your own. Final thought right here in these two shots is this matrix revealed quite plainly. I come back to this mommy once in a while. Currently, nevertheless, I would certainly also like to reveal the charts that are concealed under the person, the most extreme values for individual property classes.Of course, I ' m not going to show all the charts below in a minute, but these are the most fascinating ones in my opinion. The initial is the connection between the behavior of the eurodollar and also gold, and also we see a large, strong favorable correlation right here, 0.8 52 practically. And this is a sign that if the Eurodollar is expanding, there is an extremely high likelihood that gold will. As you can see, in practically every comment I emphasize how crucial it is, what a very crucial connection and relationship in between just how the US dollar acts and also gold, and also obviously additionally the buck. In this situation, nevertheless, this relationship is very strong as well as I believe it is additionally worth making use of in practice.The next relationship in between the habits of the dollar yen as well as the habits of United States bonds, which was talked about earlier, and in this case it is positive. 0 7 less, which suggests that there is additionally an extremely clear positive correlation as well as connections, which I additionally state in almost every comment, which is verified by statistical research. The next connection between the behavior of the dollar as well as Canada to the behavior of silver, as well as in this instance this connection is minus point 76 almost. As well as in this situation, it suggests that if the Canadian commodity currency is purchased, after that we are also dealing with rises in the price of silver. So if we are dealing with decreases in the dollar to Canada, assets such as silver are clearly being purchased and also this merely confirms that the Canadian is a commodity money, it is strictly depending on what the threat stress on assets is. The next relationship between gold as well as silver was plus factor 83, so we also see a close partnership in between the habits of these 2 interesting precious metals.And the last fascinating connections between the behavior of the WIG20 index as well as the euro buck. And this relationship is plus decimal 64. To ensure that implies that if there is stress against the United States dollar, supply indices and markets like Warsaw are acquired. And if the American dollar is gotten, i.e. the euro buck is falling, after that the stock indices in Warsaw are also falling as well as these emerging market assets are likewise being sold. So we see that the statistical evaluation also really plainly reveals how carefully the behavior of the United States dollar is currently closely pertaining to markets like Warsaw. So if the eurodollar goes better up in the context of the medium term, especially after the beginning of the new year, the Warsaw Stock Market should be just one of the primary recipients of this phenomenon, which is the growth of the eurodollar, i.e.The weakening of the US buck. One more interesting correlation between the actions of the zloty buck and the WIG20 index. The correlation is strongly adverse minus 0.7, which implies that there is an additional link between the stamina or weakness of the domestic currency and also the securities market index. This is extremely simple to discuss. Just, the zloty is the entrance gateway to purchasing our nation, so international investors have to purchase the zloty to purchase the Warsaw Stock Market. So to begin with they acquire the zloty, and also then they invest as well as get the Warsaw Stock market indices. So if the zloty decreases, there is a really high likelihood that the WIG20 index will certainly rise and it ' s worth bearing in mind. We have seen just how this connection has behaved over the previous six years, particularly in recent quarters.In current years, it has been purely negative and, furthermore, the correlation between the euro, the zloty and bitcoin, and also it is additionally extremely clearly negative, minus 0.507, likewise signifies the web link between the zloty as well as the cryptocurrency market. That is, if the euro zloty is dropping, there is a high likelihood that bitcoin will go up. Alternatively, if the euro zloty is increasing, there is a really high possibility that bitcoin will certainly fall. As well as obviously we see it in genuine time. Our instinct has actually already gotten that this linkage actions is taking location and also it is all relevant to whether there is worldwide risk pressure or danger aversion. In English, profit or gain. As well as now that we ' ve obtained this relational review as a Thanksgiving trivia, let ' s go on to the financial markets that work there somehow, so I think it ' s worth investigating.Today we observe further stress for German bonds to be bought, ie yields are dropping. Bitcoin acts as if it desires to grow somewhat, yet in my viewpoint, the shy higher pattern is hardly convincing. We must be over the $17,000 degree for danger demand on supply indices to have more assistance in my opinion. Yet I believe cryptocurrencies have a life of their own. That ' s why this bitcoin is so weak now. Supply indices in Europe proceed their higher trend. In my opinion, this relates to the actions of the Eurodollar plus, naturally, the autumn in the marketplace rate of interest represented by Bunds. We additionally had fascinating Ifo information today and also I wish to show here the correlations and also links between the behavior of this sign as well as the actions of the DAX index, so the efficiency of the DAX index signals to us soon a rise in optimism originating from these indications. This is a trap for bulls and confidence signs are well ahead of what will certainly take place next on stock indices. But in my point of view, it is the stock indices that are a lot more crucial, because that is where the funding is concentrated.There, investors invest billions of euros, billions of dollars, British extra pounds, as well as Ifo signs are just surveys, behind which there is practically no money, so I rely on the habits of the supply index much more that it is leading, as well as not signs that are later originated from view moods. If the US dollar damages and also these yields drop, after that naturally we have increases in the price of gold.We are also seeing this in today ' s session. Nonetheless, the copper market is still timid and also in my point of view this is because of the truth that Americans have a time off today, so I wouldn ' t be too connected to it. On the various other hand, keeping the level of$8,000 is crucial to at the very least promise for a continuation of the development of supply indices.
And lastly, an inquisitiveness when it pertains to international markets, the growing spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds once again and also this may be the cause and will quickly cause issues in the euro zone and possibly in the next quarters there will be voices once again that the euro area may drop apart.That is why I recommend you to check this spread in between Italian as well as German 10-year bonds, due to the fact that it is a sign of fear of what might occur in the euro zone in the coming years. And also currently it ' s time for Polish possessions. Because today we was familiar with the customer confidence indicators and surprisingly they were surprisingly great, they were better than the exceptionally optimistic projections and the graph reveals it, however typically we are still at record lows. Why is the level so low? Naturally, all the shocks that have actually happened recently, specifically the battle that started in February, have actually left their mark on just how all these customers in Poland behave.Each people feels the risk, for this reason these signs are at such reduced levels. Well, the growing euro and buck places pressure on Polish bonds. Returns are dropping once more today,
regardless of the fact that there are no American investors, and also they were mainly getting Polish bonds. I refer you to the morning entrance, where there was a whole lot concerning specifically this fund, which is currently specifically thinking about Polish bonds, I refer to this morning access, the web link is right there in the corner. As well as of training course, when we see exactly how the whole ETF acts on the Polish return curve, we can see that we are going into the last phase of building the pattern.Double bottom. And also this is excellent news for those who count, to start with, on additional decreases in profitability, on rises in the prices of Polish bonds, on the truth that the optimal of inflation in Poland will certainly occur, because the marketplace is betting with its real cash that this will be the instance. As well as the reality that returns are dropping ways that investors from worldwide are relying on the height of rising cost of living in Poland soon.And in my point of view, if a double lower development is developed at this stage, we will absolutely be in an extra innovative propensity to play that the height of rising cost of living in Poland comes to be a fact. The access entrance is the zloty market, but very little is occurring today. You understand what it ' s about. Thanksgiving has its mark as well as the Warsaw Stock Market, which, in my opinion, is revealing its stamina
today, betraying the determination to continue the upward trend.As we know from these data, it is related to what is taking place on the United States dollar, because trading on the US buck is still taking place, regardless of the fact that today is Thanksgiving Day in the United States and there is no session on the Meadow. Additionally it resembles there will certainly be a price cut ahead of the marketplace at the very start of following year either the United States buck market will tend to its levels ie the true evaluation of such a fair appraisal or the aberration will continue as well as the marketplace will certainly suggest as the increase in supply indices they indicate to us that the securities market is marking down the soft landing of the globe economy, not some long-term, deep and also strong decision-making processes. We likewise have interesting months as well as quarters in advance of us.And naturally, I urge all those that desire to enlighten themselves on the financial markets to XTB instructional bundles there at the end of the link in the description. I urge you to familiarize yourself with the products that are included on a normal basis. As well as now the factors to consider are what to play for the World Mug, which is currently occurring. eyes. Once more, I encourage you to do so. There is likewise a web link in the comment down below. It motivates you to acquaint yourself with the materials. Know even more to decrease the danger of your very own financial investments as well as enhance the likelihood of success in the financial markets. Thanks for listening to this material. I motivate you to subscribe, include comments and offer sort. If you think these materials have any kind of worth for you. We wear ' t see each various other as well as hear you tomorrow early morning. All the very best and finest regards.