ECONOMIC CRISIS? JIM BULLARD, HEAD OF STATE OF THE ST. LOUIS FED, I THINK IT'' S TYPE OF AN EXISTENTIAL QUESTION, LIKE IF A TREE FALLS IN THE FOREST >> > > THERE ' S NO REAL OFFICIAL DEFINITION THERE'' S THIS NBER DATING BOARD, BUT THEY'' RE NOT AUTHORITIES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT. IT REMAINS IN THE EYE OF THE OBSERVER BUT TRADITIONALLY, WE'' VE NOT CLAIMED THAT THERE'' S A RECESSION IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH APARTMENT AND LOW UNEMPLOYMENT AND ALSO CONSIDERABLE JOB GROWTH AS YOU'' RE POINTING OUT. SO THAT'' S WHERE >> WE ' RE AT > > 2 CONCERNS THAT COME FROM THAT THE FIRST ONE IS TAKE A LOOK AT THE RATE STRUCTURE THAT WE'' VE HAD M TIN STIPULATIONS OF IN WHICH THE MAT IS RATES WE CHECK OUT NEXT YEAR AS WELL AS THEY HAVE CUTS CONSTRUCTED IN, AND A WHOLE LOT OF INDIVIDUALS SAY THOSE ARE THE MARKERS FOR PRINEDICTING An ECONOMIC CRISIS >> > > SOMETHING CONCERNING THE MARKET, THEY EXPECT INFLATION AHEAD DOWN QUITE RAPIDLY NEXT YEAR, AS WELL AS THEY'' VE BEEN MISDOING ON THIS THUS FAR SO I THINK THE FAR BETTER BET IS THAT IT WILL CERTAINLY TAKE A WHILE FOR INFLATION AHEAD BACK TO 2%, IT WON'' T BE AS RAPID AS WHAT THE MARKET ANTICIPATES YOU KNOW, WHETHER THERE WOULD BE A RECESSION OR NOT, NOW I ASSUME THE SECOND HALF WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST FIFTY PERCENT WAS.SO A GREAT DEAL OF THE INDICATORS WILL RETURN IN THE VARIOUS OTHER INSTRUCTIONS OF FAVORABLE GROWTH, AS WELL AS I BELIEVE LABOR MARKETS WILL CERTAINLY HOLD UP QUITE WELL HERE SIMPLY TALKING WITH FIRMS IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'' RE STILL SCRAMBLING FOR WORKERS. >> > > ARE YOU CLAIMING THE MARKETPLACE'' S LONG HERE IT OUGHT TO STRATEGY ON REMAINING AT THE LEVEL IN. LEVEL? >> > > I ASSUME WE'' RE GOING TO HAVE TO BE HIGHER FOR LONGER. NOT SIMPLY A PARTTICK LOWER BELOW R THERE. >> > > IT WAS UP 350 THERE'' S SOME HEDGE FUND PERSON WE'' VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, JOE, WHO STATES THIS MAKES THINGS MORE DIFFICULT, THAT IS THAT INDIVIDUAL? >> >
> ACKMAN.BILL ACKMAN. HE SAYS IF YIELDS GO DOWN, FINANCIAL CONDITIONS LOOSEN UP, WHICH IS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE FED WANTS, SO YOU'' RE GOING TO NEED TO LEAN HARDER AGAINST THAT >> > > YEAH, IT'' S ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO READ MARKETS, BECAUSE THERE'' S ALWAYS FEEDBACK GOING ON BUT YOU COULD READ WHAT THEY'' RE SAYING AS A SIGN OF SUCCESS. WE FRONT FILLED RATES OF INTEREST MODIFICATIONS, 2 BIG MOVES RIGHT STRAIGHT OF 75 BASIS FACTORS RELIABILITY WAS RECOVERED AT THE CENTRAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTION NOW EXPECTATIONS ARE DECREASED FOR NEXT YEAR, MAYBE A LITTLE TOO LOW, BUT LOWER FOR NEXT YEAR, WHICH'' S GOOD NEWS THAT'' S MARKET CONFIDENCE THAT THE FED'' S PLAN IS RIGHT AND WE'' RE GOING TO GET BACK TO TARGET NOW A HLOT NEEDS TO HAPPEN PRIOR TO WE CANISTER BE SURE THAT ANY ONE OF THAT'' S THE CORRECT MEANS TO CHECK OUT IT AS WELL AS RIGHT NOW THE RISING COST OF LIVING NUMBERS, IT''.
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