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Iger Returns | Bloomberg Surveillance 11/21/2022

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Read Time:134 Minute, 49 Second

There's no doubt about it that
inflation, inflation, inflation is the key to market direction.
Eventually we're going to see a more significant pullback in risk assets and
equities. Right now, it's a market that's trading
on whether inflation is coming in better or worse relative to expectations.
The Federal Reserve funds rate is going to go above 5 percent up to 5 and a
quarter. This narrative of now pivot to pause is
one that is just not yet backed by the Fed.
This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa
Abramowicz. Good morning, everyone.
Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowicz It's Tom Keene holiday lengthen workweek.
Good morning, everyone, on radio and television, a really eventful week
coming up with lots of mystery, including really, really get to this Mr.
Iger rejoining Disney and all the rest China we've got to talk about as well.
But the major discussion at my house, Lisa, it was simple.
I need garden.

Do you put sour cream in your mashed
potatoes? These are the kind of discussions this
week that matter Joel Weber the big week into the biggest, most eventful week you
could ever imagine. How much are we going to fight over the
turkey to see whether we put sour cream on it and whether we discuss bitcoin
over the table? I really do wonder.
I mean, honestly, this is not a very eventful week.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Exactly.
Was pretty good.

But we are getting is a lot of year
ahead reviews. And I find that interesting because
they're coming out during the week. If take don't look at this.
We'll revise it in March and you're getting them.
And there are some consensus trades that you're starting to feel even in the
turmoil that we're seeing. Yeah, we're going to talk about that as
well, including some disinflationary talk.
Chef Patel will join us here to start us off.
Margi Patel joins us from Boston here in a moment.
Let's very quickly go through some of the immediate headlines.
I'm not surprised.

This is a cultural issue.
Iger back in Disney, not is chairman. And I'm sorry, I've always said this
entertainment is about creative. And what this was is a failure of
creative. Iger comes back in to jumpstart Disney
creative. What this is, is about Walt Disney
Company facing its worst year of stock losses, potentially coming back to 1910.
A lot of company. They had a lot of company.
And yet they are uniquely in pain due to perhaps the amount of money that they're
hemorrhaging from Disney, plus trying to rationalize the billion plus dollars of
losses that they did in there. How much do you really revive that,
considering that Bob Iger kind of founded some of the online streaming
movement stock two or three down to the 86 level, I believe then up to 90 and up
nicely today has already talked a lot about this, are trying to effort some of
the true experts on this. But again, Lisa, so to me, everything
here is culture, Wall Street's culture, entertainment, the pixie dust of
Hollywood has culture. And this is just a cultural discussion.
Got anger.

And it's the culture also of activists
getting more involved. Suddenly you have more activist
investors that are going to be kind of pushing things around a little bit more.
The other aspect of this is how much are we going back to a pre pandemic norm for
some of the entertainment companies, some of the tech companies that really
built up in 2020 and 2021 when they were the only game in town.
And I wonder that was some of the tech layoffs, right?
Is unique with 75 percent of the staff cut.
But is it right? I mean, we're going to start to see
layoffs that start to seem pretty romantic.
And I like the phrase so many of this week tech session I thought was pretty
interesting. You wonder if that expands out from
that. We've got to talk about China yesterday
afternoon late. I said to someone in the family, I said,
this isn't normal. This is two 300 cases.
Maybe I was in Beijing. I can't remember as well.
Boom. In the Chinese Monday, they begin to
recalibrate. The first death from Covid in quite a
while in base read sea level.

The 87 year old man starting that off.
And so you start to see curbs come back. But this really speaks to how much hope
was baked in the market that perhaps China would move away from zero Covid,
even though Teddy kept saying, no, we're not.
No, we're not. And so here you are.
You're seeing that a little bit in some of the price action.
But there is a feeling that China drove away eventually.
And the current schedule to join us. Let's get right to the data here.
Yes, it's a holiday week, but yes, we continue to watch equities, bonds,
currencies, commodities futures with the way to them negative 21 Dow futures.
Same kind of idea actually.

Dow Jones a little bit better on a
percentage basis. Nasdaq down seven tenths of a percent
and the VIX was a 24 level twenty three point ninety.
I'm going to go right to it. We had a 15000 handle on bitcoin.
It is fragile this morning, 16000 1 1 4 down fractionally.
But 15000 handle is not 16000 reality on bitcoin in the bond market.
Lisa, help hope you hear the tans 3.0 83 percent to year.
You know, I'm going to call a churn of non news.
And yet there's that inversion still negative 71 basis.
People expect the Federal Reserve to hack half take rates pretty
substantially into weakness. And that is going to lead to further
craven version. I'm curious to see whether we get any
Fed speak that really discusses that before.
This is really important. I think it's a sleeping time bomb.
West Texas Intermediate American Oil 79 17.
First for American oil to migrate down into the low 70s would be a huge deal in
this holiday week. It's amazing to see oil come down.
Are you briefing today or because of the holiday?
Do we are we brief Francine Lacqua? I'm briefing, but briefly.
So let's just go through it real quick.

The Fed speak that we got today, we did
get some San Francisco Fed President Mario Draghi speaks from 12:00 p.m.
Eastern to 145 p.m. How much did she talk about what we've
seen in terms of what a pivot means? And this is something that's important.
People are talking about a. Pivot, meaning the Fed stopping other
people saying, no, a pivot is when they actually move from a restrictive to a
less restrictive stance, which isn't going to come right a very long time.
We also get auctions today. So you have the auctions in a moment.
I want to shut up. Mary Daly, I think she is the most
interesting Fed official was first order economic skill.
And she came from a really tough background.
This is not some person that grew up in the suburbs with a silver spoon in her
mouth.

I think she's got a very unique
perspective for Fed officials becoming hawkish as you see people in the lowest
incomes, seeing the most pain. She really brings a unique perspective
to this. We're also going to be getting earnings
today, including from Zune video communications aftermarket.
This is a chart of their stock over the past five years.
Kind of shocking to see the round trip. We got as high as nearly five hundred
seventy dollars on the shares. And currently they're trading at, you
know, substantially less than that. It's just sort of shocking to see how
much of a round trip. Eighty one dollars, 64 cents an hour is
to see whether they can deliver on that. And then today, this is what everyone's
actually watching, which is the World Cup.
And the games that we have today are England versus Iran at 8 a.m., Senegal
versus Netherlands at 11:00 AM and U.S. versus Wales at 2:00 p.m., Secretary of
State Tony Blinken will be attending Secretary of State John.
Looking to her 8:00 a.m., England.

Iran, a ISE.
And I asked a godly. So I'm like you.
I really don't focus on it. But after the 14th article in The
Telegraph, in three hours, you know, you sort of skim the headlines.
It's the minimum we can state. Boy, do they take this seriously.
I mean, it's England, Iran. But, you know, the Michael Barr going
play in Germany today. We do, too.
We'll be talking more about that later on because we're such experts in it
right now. Marty Patel will join us.
And we start strong. This is an Lisa Abramowicz bramble.
It's demanded that we start with Patel today and we do.
Markey, thank you so much for joining us.
I was talking about you cooking up a storm in Boston this weekend with the
distressed bird.

I'm sure you'll make something of it.
How distressed is the bond market? The bond market is in very good shape,
particularly high yield. In fact, I would say if anything, there
is actually a supply scarcity of good quality high yield paper to buy.
So we've had yields, spreads widen out only 100 or 200 basis points more than
the Treasury move. So high yield bonds year to date have
far outperformed Treasuries investment grade.
It's really more lack of lack of supply for buyers by my.
Defaults are under 2 percent. Michael Dirty and as we can note, is
heated that the market is wrong and higher.
He's looking for inflation in rates will fall meaningfully.
That's an opportunity for Margi Patel given a disinflation or price up, yield
down. Where's the best place to play?
In the in the bond market, I think that better quality, high yield is a very
good place because if we have a real slowdown, if we have deflation, we may
see defaults go from 2 percent to 4 or 5 percent, their historic average.
So that says take a little bit of risk and say a double B name, get less yield,
but you'll be able to keep it and not lose your principal.
There are higher defaults.

How much you looking at stocks
underperforming next year? We've got some outlooks from a number of
Wall Street banks and pretty much they are unanimous that next year is not
going to be great for U.S. equities.
Do you agree? You know, I really don't.
I think it's really at this point up in the air, a lot depends on what the Fed
does. If the pad slows down their very rapid
rate of increase, will that allow us to avoid a recession?
I think on a relative basis, we'll still be better off than just about any other
country in the world.

And because people are so wary of this
risk that made that sense to me, maybe there's a lot of money on the sidelines
that would like to come in. If it looks as if the years clearing and
the Fed is stabilizing or would miss a recession, can you do it at the headline
index level or do you have to be perhaps a little bit more sector specific based
on what's happening in tech? Well, I think you have to look at
sectors. I think that technology has had a lot of
problems. That's one of the big underperformers
this year. But if you go back, say, to 2000, when
the market crashed, I tech was much, much more overvalued.
The crash was much bigger. The recovery took much longer.
This time, a lot of tech names. Some of the semi names are very
reasonably priced for their long term growth.
Still volatile, but the PS are down closer to what they expected growth rate
will be. So we think a lot of parts of the tech
market is pretty attractive here.

Or do you have been fearless about
looking at equities for dividend growth as an income trade?
Is that true now? I think so because you've had such a big
correction equities. You really put the dividend yield, the
cash flow yield where it is actually competitive with investment grade bonds.
So if we have any kind of growth in the economy next year, it says to me
equities will perform. I think 2003 will probably be a rather
muted total return year, but I still think equities will do better than bonds
markets.

Thank you so much for the offspring
global investment. It's just wonderful.
Good luck with the distressed bird, as is.
Well, Lisa John from Coventry e-mails in front of the TV set just before England,
two hours away. England.
Johnson's time. You went right over the auction's What
the hell are you doing? The auction's today.
There are two options. How dare you.
I mean, I know. This is my foremost import, John
Howard's Saturday. Well, we'd basically be blowing up the
show at the auction Monday ahead of Thanksgiving, 1 p.m.
We get just so wildly dollars of their two week bills and 43 barely knows a
five year notes. The five year notes are most interesting
to me. How do we deal with a longer term
inflation? That has been the biggest distinction
that I've seen over the past couple of weeks.
Suddenly, people are starting to talk about disinflation and outright
deflation and a greater number of different sectors.
Do you get that feel in some of the options as the option really well?
Do people flood in because this is an area of yield?
And in this week, as Lisa mentions, we begin to look forward to 2023.
We'll keep you abreast of the different Wall Street global.
Wall Street reports on that.

I should say futures at negative 21.
Oil I'm watching 79 70. West Texas Intermediate Bitcoins, 16000. Keeping you up to date with news from
around the world with the first word. I'm Lisa Matteo.
Well, Chinese stocks and the yuan retreated as a string of reported Covid
deaths and tighter restrictions in some districts gave investors a rude reminder
that the path to reopening will be rough.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for restrictions across
China has asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign
officials are reverting to tighter Covid zero curbs.
Meanwhile, the country's first cold winter related death in almost six
months has sparked concern that Beijing could see a return of restrictions.
The U.S.

And Chinese defense chiefs are likely to
meet for their first talks since Beijing suspended dialogue with Washington over
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August visit to Taiwan.
A Pentagon spokesman says U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would
welcome a meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Wang Feng Gay.
Now it's the latest sign that ties between the two nations are stabilizing.
The cop talks in Egypt have ended with an agreement to help developing nations
face the devastation of climate change, although that deal is for a loss and
damage fund. It paid for by rich countries is seen as
a breakthrough. But negotiators failed to agree further
cuts in CO2 emissions. Equity investors hoping for a better
year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to strategists at Goldman
Sachs Group, who say the bear market phase is not over yet.
Strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell, predict markets will
reach a final trough next year before a strong rebound.
Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than
20 700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
I'm Lisa Matteo.

This is Bloomberg. We in the United States probably need to
be careful about our evangelizing influence.
I don't think it's really for us to tell China how they should organize their
entire society. I think we're going to need to be very
careful with respect to our diplomacy. Lawrence Summers are committed to Wall
Street. We can we thank the former secretary of
treasury for his comments on an often basis here on his economics and also, of
course, the way economics folds into the Atlantic and Pacific society.
Lisa Abramowicz Tom Keene.

John Farrow is off today looking towards
England. Iran will do that in an hour and 45
minutes. We'll keep you abreast of that.
Was surveillance World Cup coverage as well.
It has not been a surprise, but yet here it is in China.
There is again rising Covid. The joins us now.
Chief Asia economic correspondent here and under you and I were talking about
the symbolism of a hospital in Hong Kong from the 1930s, the Queen Mary hospital,
which is maybe where those tea leaves are discovered in your Hong Kong.
Is Hong Kong like the rest of China with Covid, or are there certain zones where
things are worse? There are some parallels, Tom.
Hong Kong does have rising cases at the moment.
People are watching what's going on with the hospitals and there are warnings
that the hospitals are filling up again.

Now, if you extrapolate to what's going
on in in mainland China. Well, there we know that cases are
surging. We know that we've had the first reports
of fatalities in six months. We know that we're heading into winter
in China. And, of course, all the warnings
survived the past year or so with since the arrival of Omicron, which has tested
Covid 0. Has been all about.
It's been all about consciousness. Hospital network withstand an outbreak,
especially China's regional and rural hospital at Mark Crumpton IBEX produce
say we'll be put under a lot of pressure.
And of course, is the vaccination rate, especially among the elderly, at a kind
of level that you need to protect, well, your populace.
So in our reporting this morning, folks, and this is the depth of the Chinese
reporting of Bloomberg.

We have age 80 vaccination with booster
only at a stunning little low, 40 percent.
That equates to, I'm going to say 90 percent in America.
Is this the moment and occur in where Beijing gets on a first name basis with
Pfizer in Modena? Well, you know, China have not embrace
the Western vaccines. They certainly have been pushing their
own sign of CAC vaccine. There's never been a good explainer,
though, I think from the outside looking as to why the vaccination rate among the
elderly hasn't been at the level that it could and should be.
Tom, there is a view that China has wasted the kind of good Covid year when
it was keeping the disease out and not getting the population inoculated.
By the way, similar story in Hong Kong draw parallels to the elderly population
here.

We're not protected.
When it broke out, then we had a major crisis on our hands.
So there hasn't yet been a satisfying explanation, I think, on China's
vaccination rate. But there is a lot of focus on aid.
Do they start to ramp it up among the elderly and then be to your point, where
do they go with the fact that Western vaccines and therapeutics, do they
eventually embrace them through daylight and abuse in the populace?
These are core metrics that, of course, I suppose that people are looking at for
I think and this doesn't sound wonderful.
It's not as terrible as it has sounded.

And yet when you take a look at the Wall
Street analysts, expectations for 2023, almost universally, they are all
overweight China. They all expect some sort of recovery in
the stocks and bonds of the second biggest economy in the world is what
you're seeing on the ground consistent with that, that we've seen the worst.
And now it's just going to be about recovery and how quickly the station can
do that. So two things are going on.
We had that pivot, Lisa, on real estate, as you well know.
Couple of weeks ago, I need the basically the message from the
government was continue to support the real estate sector, the banks and
everyone involved. That has lifted expectations for China's
economy. Economists are saying that's a game
changer. And on the other side of the Covid side
of things, we had that pivot. We can argue what the extent of it.
But we had DAX signaling from Beijing that we are on a path to Covid 0.
Eventually, we have had messaging even today in the state press saying, you
know, let's not have the broad base lockdowns or mass testing we've had.
Let's be more targeted and smarter in containing Covid.
So that's what's buoying the optimism for China, that maybe there is a way
out.

But let's not forget, we are going to
win now. It's going to be a huge test of how they
do navigate Covid, especially their trajectory to move away from Covid zero.
And of course, on the other side of things, we have the real estate story
has a long way to go. You know, both Covid has a long way to
go in terms of lifting all restrictions on the real estate story is far from
ending its slump as well. So there's a basis for optimism that
maybe it's hit the bottom, but that doesn't mean the full recoveries is ISE
in any way under way just yet. How does the Tony Blinken trip to China
really shape this narrative as well heading into next year?
It's more about good music, mood, mood music, Lisa, again, there's a view that
maybe the U.S. and China put things put things on hold
for a moment of cold time ISE on those tensions.
Again, nobody's talking about any of these structural underlying issues being
resolved or when you have the governments, the officials talking to
each other on climate change or on security or on economic matters.
The thinking is that's obviously that's already bodes well compared to where
they were before the G 20 meeting between the two leaders.
So I would say better mood music, but it doesn't solve any of the underlying
problems.

And very quickly here, are you sliding
like a 12 hour workweek here in football?
Mad Hong Kong? I was at the Concorde Hotel there once
and there were four games on at the same time.
I mean, does Hong Kong stop for the World Cup?
Hong Kong is a big football city, Tom. Absolutely is the difficulty this time
around is the time zones or the time of the games over in Qatar aren't great for
us.

So I don't think anyone expects the bars
of lunch hour long by phone to be as packed as your previous World Cup, as
previous World Cups. But there will always be the diehard
fans who will be out and about watching it for sure.
See how he is. Is why you see it.
But, Tom, you knew the answer to that. Of course.
Well, you know, we did it. We did our World Cup chat.
A lot of undercurrent. Thank you so much of writing color and
seriously. No one talks to team surveillance,
doesn't like and occurred in his late evening in Hong Kong.
You mentioned earlier the view to 2023 and Danny Dwyer and Michael Welch,
Canaccord Genuity. It was a missile on his.
It's for Dwyer. I mean, Dwyer is an optimistic guy.
I mean, he's you know, this is not an optimistic US will be Wales.
And this is not an optimistic note when bad news becomes bad news.
And look at that. Don't buy the pivot.
Yeah. If a recession is coming, don't buy the
pivot.

Basically, this is something that John's
talked about, which is if the Fed does not cut rates into a recession, if they
hold rates where they are at any, the economic trajectory is slowing.
That is restrictive, even if they're not hiking further.
And Bank of America put this out. Well, they said to us, a pivot isn't
stopping with rate hikes. It is cutting.
And that is not going to be necessarily on the table for a while.
It's going to be interesting to see. But certainly for Mr.
Dwyer, who's made a career of linking equity drops to recession, this is a
unique note. He says here's a recession and he has
trouble going long. So Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson over the
weekend missed something out today. He basically was defending some of the
hate mail that he was getting on his projection that the S&P could fall to
3000 before going back to where it is right now.
It's about a 24 percent decline from where we are now.
And he basically said that people are pushing back saying you're crazy.
And he's saying, look, we have to have some earnings pain if you're going to
see the recession that so many people are expecting.
We'll see.

We've got a wonderful set of guests
coming up. I was actually thinking this week and I
hope we get Dr. Weinberg and Carl Weinberg is going to
join us soon. Futures are negative 21.
Dow futures negative 79. The VIX elevated a bit of tension,
twenty three point nine five. Stay with us.
Bloomberg Surveillance. Michael Bloomberg Shery Ahn.
Good morning, everyone. Lisa Abramowicz Tom Keene John Farrell
on assignment this morning at 8 o'clock, scheduled in Doha, England.
Around that is in. That's his assignment.
You know, it's like a World Cup assignment that nobody's, you know.
I mean, can you blame me? The guy's encyclopedic on this.
I got an assignment to wait for him to get stuck on assignment.
I mean, the finals, December 18th. So we got a long way to go.
There's like 14 brackets. And, you know, did you watch yesterday?
I watch the highlights. And I felt all bad for the CAC team,
honestly, because. Yeah, that their nation had built up
this entire ecosystem around it. And then they just froze.
They show up in Ecuador.

Absolutely.
Nobody's left the stadium. And so, you know, you wonder whether
they can bring it back. Re mandated games, right.
Televisions clicking off, radio stations changing worldwide, as you would know.
Let's move on. Futures negative 21.
And of course, we're watching. Disney will have some coverage of Mr
Iger back to Disney as well. We just spoke to our wonderful and
occurring in Hong Kong about the moment again for China and Covid right now with
the data negative 21 rates, they're giving me no help today.
Oil a little bit like seventy nine sixty eight and wants Texas Intermediate and
some dollar strength.

Finally, we catch up on a narrow topic
with Carl Weinberg. He's chief economist, managing director
at High Frequency Economics. Dr Weinberg, I have noticed it's not my
chart of the year, but it well could be. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index
compare between the United States and the EU has never been wider.
Europe on a financial conditions basic basis is flat on its back.
What does that mean for the ECB in terms of their efforts to be responsible and
to do quantitative tightening? Hey, good morning, Tom.
Thank you for finding something on Bloomberg that even I couldn't find in
terms of the Financial Conditions Index.

What we're looking at, where we're
highlighting to readers of High Frequency Economics this morning is a
huge change in what you just described. You see these monetary stance is going
to take a huge step tighter on Wednesday morning.
Specifically, they have raised the rates on their repos.
Banks have the opportunity to pay them back.
They've signaled two hundred and ninety six point two billion euros worth of
long tripods to be paid back on on Wednesday morning.
That's going to increase the stock of bonds available to the market by two
hundred ninety six point two billion euros in one day.
And that should be a massive step toward reducing real money supply.
Getting rid of the excess cash balances that are out there and more importantly,
increasing the supply of bonds and raising long term yields.
If they do this and I'm going to use a phrase from John Claude Tres Shea, he
would talk to me about how economics diffuses differently.
Sir, you're up.

I get that if we do to in America what
it means for Montana and Mississippi. How does it diffuse across these
nations? It is a slower process in Europe to get
the impact of this out into the market. When the Fed undertakes Kuki, it sells
bonds to the market. So people immediately exchange liquid
cash for less liquid or illiquid bonds, and that immediately affects their
behavior. In Europe, the bonds are being returned
to the banks. They were held as collateral against
repo agreements. So the banks that it will take their
time or whatever time they take to sell those bonds back to the market.
Because why on earth would a bond want to meet with a bank, want to be holding
a bond when the price of that bond is sure to fall?
All right.

They're better off in cash.
So I think those bonds will get to the market, but it will take a little bit
longer than the key to impact those in the United States.
Some says this sounds very narrow, but the implications are as broad as you can
imagine. There is a feeling that when you head
into a downturn, you invest in duration. You head into long term government bonds
of developed nations. Certainly what's happening in the United
States. Are you saying over in Europe and
perhaps in the U.S., that is not the correct trade that you're going to see
yields on the longer and on longer term treasuries and gilts and boons go up,
not down into a downturn? Well, Lisa, if we're not at the top of
the Fed tightening cycle and we're barely approaching the top of the
inflation cycle, bond yields are going to go up.
With or without Kutty, it's just a question of how far.
So the Q T makes the bonds look less desirable.
It also raises the rate on long term lending.
And that in turn depresses the economy because it discourages borrowing to
invest.

It discourages we've already seen it in
the housing market, in mortgages. So yeah, long term interest rates are
probably going to go up from here. That doesn't mean the yield curve can't
be inverted and that it can't continue to be inverted.
And it certainly doesn't mean anything. We're still going to get a recession at
some point, although maybe not right away, but we are going to see higher
long term bond yields. Okay.
For how long? And I ask this because a lot of people
are saying that the Fed does want to bring inflation under control, so does
the ECB, and they're going to inflict quite a bit of pain in order to get
that. Are you saying that they don't have the
conviction to do that? Or just that all of the financial
engineering over the past couple of decades is coming home to roost and that
that long and will continue to go up for a longer period of time with higher real
yields? Well, Lisa, I think that this whole
process has a finite end.

You know, we saw a massive surge in the
supply of money to the economy, and we've had too much money chasing too few
goods. And that's giving us the rise in prices
that we perceived as inflation. But I don't believe that's an infinite
process. I believe the adjustment of real money
is being undertaken both by central banks and their Kutty, combined with
rising prices eroding the value of the nominal money supply and bringing down
real money. In short.
All right. It's a process that has a finite end
point.

And by our calculations at High
Frequency Economics, we have some great charts on this for our readers.
We expect that most central banks will have gotten money supply back to where
it ought to be for price stability within the next year.
And that a year from that, we will be talking about the recession and hardly
tying it all elation. We have to get there first and we're not
quite there yet. Carl, your read on stochastic nature of
inflation. You look at the two bouts after 1947 and
on and on and on the pointed this of an up we go high inflation, we turn around
and disinflation rapidly. Is that your scenario?
I don't think we have to see disinflation.
All right. We've had again, you look at the chart
of money supply in the United States, and I hate to sound like a monetarist
because I'm not one. But you got to look at this chart, Tom,
and you see this big bubble of money being printed and there's just too much
money out there. So we have to write that.
And a one time increase in money should lead to a one time increase in prices.
And it feels like inflation when we're doing it.
And that's where we are right now.

Right.
Just once is. But it doesn't go on forever.
All right. And we don't have to see prices fall.
They just said stabilize at a higher level.
Let me go. Milton Friedman, David, later on you as
we go monetarist, where does that money go?
If we have a balloon of money. Well, first of all, the Fed takes a lot
of it back with its quantitative tightening.
And that's what we're starting to see now.
And that's where we're going to see in Europe by Wednesday morning.
You see a big step toward reducing the money supply in Europe and getting it to
where it should be within a year. And the other place, the goal is, is
that rising prices make the real money stock the amount of goods and services
that the money can buy. All right.
Get become less so, therefore. All right.
We then adjust the amount of money we have to the amount of goods and services
we're producing. So the money doesn't disappear, but real
money gets eroded by the rising prices.

And the central banks do the right
thing, which is what they're doing, which is start to take it out with
quantitative tightening. This right sizing up monetary policy,
what does that do in terms of the depth of the recession that you're predicting?
Well, the recession itself, there are a number of factors behind the recession.
Some of them were just cyclical.

All right.
Some of them the biggest component of it, though, is that I believe that wages
have not kept up with prices. That, by the way, is your clue that the
inflation is not going to be self-sustaining.
And we have real incomes coming down. So we have probably a pretty powerful
recession coming. We also had a pretty powerful boost out
of this coming out of this wonky recession that we just had.
I mean, reread Jay Powell speech at Jackson Hole, not last summer, but the
summer before. He says this is the darndest thing I've
ever seen. We had a recession and incomes went up
at the same time. How could that be right?
We've got a lot of the excesses that we have to purge.
So I think we have a sizable correction in the economy to come.
I can't put a number on it right now. Right.
I think it's going to be a pretty substantial one.
It's not going to be a little long. Karl, what's your theme for your to 2023
outlook? Give us a window into that.
I think we've got a more for our concerns away from inflation.
Prices will stabilize and then we'll be thinking more about the recession.
So it's a pivot in your language.

All right.
A morphing of focus away from inflation as prices stabilize.
Kahlenberg, thank you so much. High Frequency Economics, just a
terrific brief and leaving early. So we've got to have Dr.
Weinberg back because how would you even get to one of his 40s, which is an
emerging market, fragilities that are out there Friday?
Look for it, folks. BRANDO I'll be off Friday after
surviving my cooking. BRANDO with Damien Sasser What would an
inspired pairing? Well, I love them with Damien because
you guys all ditched me to go enjoy your second day of the Thanksgiving holiday.
But Damien's going to be the trooper that comes in here and we have a great
time. We're going to talk to all sorts of
strategists and focus on fixed income and talk about what's going on with the
shopping.

You didn't do shopping.
No, no. It's England U.S., I think, Friday.
Kip? No, there's a big, big game Friday.
John and I've already picked out a bar. He says I have to go below 59 St..
You know, that's it. We'll be good luck for.
Have fun. And we hear even more people clicking
off. I do want to just point out one thing
Carl Weinberg was talking about the year ahead.
And what do you get if you pull out all of this extra money that central banks
pulled every month? Gloom there.
So Morgan Stanley put out their outlook and talked about where they disagreed
the most and where they had the most heated.
Disagree US had to do is households one to one.
And this to me was fascinating that they really had a controversial moment where
they think that there is going to be a massive decline in the number of sales,
but there isn't going to be a huge decline in prices.
This is one of the big distinguishing features.
People think that there isn't gonna be this massive housing rout, even though
you've got 7 percent mortgage rates.

And to me, this is one of the biggest
question marks, because the first area that really feels how much we've jacked
up rates and what the consequence. I strongly agree with this.
First of all, in our prism here, within three zip codes of New York City, we
don't know what we're talking about. Let's start with that.
But the bottom line is they're dead on in that housing is a huge part of the
economy, huge part of inflation or we are.
And all that is hugely behavioral. To me, it's it's it's it's underplayed.
It's not just about statistics and cold math.
And just like you say, people are going to see an X percent decline in their
house and they're going to go, let's sit.
Well, where else can they move? Right.
With borrowing costs are where they are there.
Like there's going to be no inventory. So what you're seeing now to some
degree, shout out to Stephen Roach, who invented modern Morgan Stanley
economics, which has always been visibly fractious.
And we think that is a good powerful thing is I agree.
BREMMER We haven't agreed since 2017, I think.
Stay with us.

This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Keeping you up to date with news from
around the world with the first word. I'm Lisa Matteo.
In a newspaper interview, Germany's defense minister says the country is
offering Patriot missile defense systems to Poland.
Last week, a strike killed two people and a Polish village near the Ukrainian
border. Germany also intends to extend a
deployment of hatred batteries in Slovakia through 2023.
The UN's atomic agency says powerful blast shook the area of Ukraine's upper
ritzy, a nuclear power plant over the weekend.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned U.S.
policymakers to focus on building the country's own economic strengths in its
contest with China rather than on attacking its adversary.
Summers tells Bloomberg the U.S.

Should instead concentrate on its own
innovation, infrastructure, education and challenges such as opioid deaths.
Seven national football teams, including England, will not wear a rainbow armband
showing solidarity with LGBTQ rights. Bowing to pressure from FIFA because
players might receive a yellow card for the show of support, Qatar is under
intense scrutiny leading up to the World Cup over the treatment of migrant
workers, as well as concerns about human rights and its criminalization of
homosexuality. And it wasn't the star the hosts were
hoping for on the pitch, beaten two to nothing by Ecuador in the opening match.
Today, the U.S. takes on whales.
An American musician yay has returned to Twitter after a two week hiatus from the
social network.

A new owner, Elon Musk, welcome them
back on the platform. His account had been temporarily
suspended and restored at the end of October, which most said was not his
decision. Days earlier, suspension had been due to
an anti-Semitic tweet. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on
Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists
and analysts and more than 120 countries.
I'm Lisa Mateo. This is Bloomberg. The single most damaging factor for the
world economy is the war. And if we want to return to growth, the
sooner the war is, the better. Because Taylor Riggs gave the
International Monetary Fund on her war again from Eastern Europe.
She viscerally understands the terrain and Lisa Abramowitz, the terrain there.
This weekend was finally the feeling of winter in some of the cities with
destroyed infrastructure.

The Ukrainians are simply pulling out
people because they cannot live. And that nascent winter cold and a real
attack right now on the electric system, on electric grid by Russia, on Ukraine.
How much is this really causing an escalation?
It's really creating a bit of discomfort and even more discomfort around the
world. Very good.
Right now, we're going to stop the show. And we made a decision here, a lease 15
years ago to say, yes, we do economics, finance and investment.
But far more we do international relations.
Not knowing the world would be turned upside down, as we have seen in the
recent decades, providing leadership worldwide.
And that has been Richard Haass.

He's president of the Council on Foreign
Relations. Full disclosure, I'm a member wanted pay
my dues. I think I'm behind on my dues, Richard.
Well, we'll give you another time. He is a bitcoin payment was bid quite
worked out. Richard Haass is retiring, pulling away
from truly his Council on Foreign Relations.
All right. Richard Haass, thank you so much for
joining us. So much to talk about it today.
Where was the Council on Foreign Relations go to lead as fractious
international diplomacy? Well, Tom, first of all, I'm not
retiring from anything, I'm departing the council after 20 years, but I'm
going to stay active in the public conversation both about this country's
role in the world as well as about the future of American democracy.
But I think it's healthy for institutions despite what's going on,
right isn't. I think it's kind of healthy for
institutions every now and then to have a change in our
leadership. I think for the council, it's simply to
continue to be a resource on a wide range of challenges, whether it's the
revival of geopolitics or global issues.

We are we're just finishing up a
cop 27 meeting in Sharm el Sheikh and quite honestly.
All right. It's almost a complete and utter, utter
failure. And I also think increasingly we need to
look at the relationship between America internally and America externally and
whether we're ever gonna be positioned to again lead the world, because this
world is not going to organize itself to meet the challenges it faces without an
involved and effective United States.

So I think the inbox in this field is as
follows I ever been. I agree that strongly.
And folks, a brief here, 240 pages is Richard Haass.
The Bill of obligations is he? And we go in search of the will of
America to move forward. Richard Haass, the new administration,
the new Congress, the new presidency, two years out, do they have the will to
find their bill of obligations? I don't see a lot of the time, I'll be
honest. Know, I don't think we're off to a great
start. The new Republican House of
Representatives seems much more interested in politics than policy and
investigations than legislation. I think for the next two years, it's
going to be extraordinarily difficult for the Biden administration to get
legislation passed really about anything.
I think you're going to see, therefore, an emphasis on foreign policy where
presidents traditionally have more discretion than they do on things
domestic.

And probably a greater emphasis on on
regulation, on executive action. Again, to essentially find ways to do
things without requiring Congress to join in this fractious global order.
How confident are you that the U.S. remain close to Europe, at least as
close to Europe as they have traditionally based on some of the
recent fissures, not only with respect to exactly how to deal with the energy
crisis, but also with tech investments and some of the the the the bills that
Congress has passed so far that really focus in the U.S..
Good question. So I think it's a mixed record.
On one hand, if this administration, the Biden administration stands for anything
and it's a lot it's an alliance first foreign policy.
And I think the entire management of the Ukraine crisis, the Russian crisis has
been ISE been pretty good. You also see a growth in trans-Atlantic
trade, whether it's because of energy or a deep emphasis on trading with
adversaries, a real emphasis on trading what with with friends, where I'm
worried about over the long term is not so much Russia as it is China.
And I think there could be a growing split between what you might call
American economic pressure on China, almost economic warfare, and Europe led
by Germany looking to China in many ways to compensate for the loss of economic
ties with Russia.

And if there were to ever be a crisis
over Taiwan, this divergence across the Atlantic one makes a crisis more likely
because China may not fear sanctions or if there were a crisis in the United
States, wanted to introduce sanctions, I could imagine a big transatlantic split.
This is really important, especially as German Chancellor Olof Schulz just went
to China with a bunch of executives of big industrial companies.
How much do you give credence then to the softening in tone that we've heard
at least recently with the U.S. and China and Tony Blinken Blinken
heading over there early next year? Look, I think it's good.
I'm an old fashioned diplomat, so I actually happen to believe in diplomacy.
I think that's progress. I thought the meeting in Bali was a
useful exchange. I think it's useful to have follow up,
but let's not kid ourselves. These countries are in very different
pages. The question is whether they can set up
some rules of the road about how to limit their differences over Taiwan.
So it doesn't lead to conflict.

But I don't see any sign, for example,
that China is lending a hand to deal with North Korea, which is busy building
up nuclear weapons and shooting off missiles.
I don't see that China is helping with Iran.
We can go around the world. So geopolitically, the two countries are
not on the same page. China is still not helping with with
climate much. So again, to me, the real question with
the aid states and China with these talks is whether they can avoid
negatives more than achieve positives. Richard Haass, I grew up with part of
the House being a middle 20th century isolationist, what was called a Chicago
Tribune Midwest isolationism, something I'm sure you saw west of Oberlin, Ohio.
And when I look at where we are today, Richard Haass, we have a new
isolationism.

It's always there.
But this time, it's different color, the character of America's new isolationism.
You're right, we're seeing it time and it doesn't respect party lines.
We're seeing it in both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.
You see in the Republican Party a kind of flirtation with Russia.
This talk about conditioning or limiting aid to Ukraine on the progressive side
of the Democratic Party again, and impatience over money spent for foreign
policy or national security abroad wanting to see more at home.
What's missing on both sides of the aisle is an appreciation of two things.
One is that money spent on foreign policy is good for us here at home.
We are not going to do well in a world that unravels.
Here's my favorite word in a world in disarray.
Secondly, what ails us at home for the most part is not a lack of resources
being spent.

You look at how much we're spending
domestically. That's not the problem.
It's how we spend money. Is the issue much more than how how much
we spend. Plus, increasingly, as you know better
than anybody, what's crowding out a lot of useful forms of domestic spending is
not national security. It's servicing our debt.
And that's something that people on the left and the right wanted to free up
money to devote to domestic causes. They could focus very much on the size
of America's debt.

Richard ISE, thank you so much.
The council and his Council on Foreign Relations, the new book, The Bill of
Obligations, is the will out there to move forward into the next decade.
We're going to move forward to a day to check future negative 20 VIX back above
24. Monday, Thanksgiving week, it's a churn.
It's an elevation. Stay with us.
This is Bloomberg. This economy is still the most resilient
economy in the world. The rally could continue.
I do think it is a bear market rally. I mean, you know, it could go to the end
of the year.

There are huge opportunities underneath
the surface. There's still going to be facing an
awful lot of volatility in 2023. Really, what we're dealing here is
potentially with an earnings decline that is not yet priced into the market
for 2023. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom
Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.
Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Ferro.
Lisa Abramowicz. Tom Keene on a Monday on radio.
On television in one hour.

England, Iran.
John Farrow is not in today. I'm shocked.
Let's wonder why. I wonder why.
Assignments. Yeah.
Not only that, but you know, he was putting up his tree ahead of
Thanksgiving. Yeah, well, guess what?
So did Bloomberg. So he got the tree and you've got the
World Cup and he's off. Yeah.
Oh, you know, he is killing it. You're on Thanksgiving week.
We hope John enjoys his World Cup. We do actually do miss him because of
his really true knowledge of all that's going on here.
COTA record all you saw yesterday, I saw it.
It was pretty cool. Yeah, it was cool, though.
Cutter is sort of sad for them because this is their real tour de force.
I mean, this is when their country really put all the money into it and
then they just couldn't really make it.

You know, but that's my my take is there
it is. And the people committed this like Mr.
Farah with encyclopedic knowledge. They're going to love it.
We have to sort of follow along with respect.
And it's an America the next time around.
You didn't say it was a massive week ahead.
No, it's not a massive week ahead. It's vague.
You know, Thanksgiving week, folks, we talked to Margi Patel about her distress
bird. She's cooking futures negative 22.
You know, I look at it and I think it's such an odd week.
It's good to have the news for the morning.
Let's go through the two items right now.
Iger back in Disney. Were you surprised?
I am not surprised, given the fact that the shares have absolutely plummeted,
that Disney plus is losing more than a billion dollars a year.
You're seeing this real push from activists.
Do something, bring back somebody, right?
Really January, a culture that was successful.
But this was someone who really pioneered a lot of the streaming and
really tried to write a lot of streaming.
What did they could do, offer file offload at ESPN?
Is that what they're thinking you might take on?
This is the Sunset Tower Hotel in Hollywood.
And they're wonderful poolside restaurant where people like Mr.
Iger hold court.

This is about creative people.
Mr. Cheap CAC was not a creative person.
Even he admitted that. And with all that's going on,
particularly, as Paul Sweeney says, in the streaming death we're seeing right
now, get Iger back creative before they find a new creative person.
Dani Burger. This is a specific industry.
And yet wholesale, Disney is not the only one that's facing some of the worst
losses in their history and they're down the most now going back to the 1970s are
poised for the worst annual loss. How much you going to see more of this
kind of pushing for activism for for chair of her changes in the C suite?
Because that's really also its underpinning this.
You have Nelson Peltz coming in there trying to push for change.
You've got other activist investors saying you're not working, you need to
prioritize us and it's going to get rougher ahead.
How much is this going to end up being? What's going to happen at a number of
different companies going forward? Well, it's going to be interesting to
see on China.

Let's get right to an undercurrent
really I thought was informative there in the last hour.
This is for real. It's a new lock down.
Well, and this is because you're actually seeing cases spread.
This is sort of the carrot and stick approach of reopening in China.
They don't have the collective immunity. And you asked the good question to end a
current. About what?
About Pfizer? What about Montana?
What are they going to start importing more effective vaccines?
And we don't know. No, I mean, it's just we don't know.
There's it's all there is to it. Let's do this.
We've got such a wonderful guest here. Let's get to the data right away and
then dash your brief futures, negative 22 where they've been on morning bonds.
Give us no information this morning. There is some economic data this week.
And of course, we stagger to that critical inflation report that we see in
December and the jobs report more important now than maybe two weeks ago.
Two cents spread gives me next to nothing negative, 70 basis points.
I think oil's import, Lisa, to have oil crack would be really important.
We're not there yet.

West Texas just under in dollars a
barrel. Yeah, but this is on potential weakness,
not only with respect to China and potential lockdowns, but also just
globally as these RTS years rise. By the way, it's countdown to meeting
minutes on Wednesday. The FBI let him go in May.
They put him out on Wednesday to bury him in the Thanksgiving exit.
I do want to point out I can't say that I'm so sorry, but someone who was a
theme to be the takeover of the Bank of Japan made clear he wasn't thrilled
about yield curve control and yen at 1 percent today.
Two big figures, 142 rounded up is a weaker yen.
And I think that's important. Well, that's on the radar, but it's
important. We'll keep track of that throughout the
day. So what I'm looking at for you today is
Fed speak.

We have one San Francisco Fed President
Mary Daly is going to be speaking for almost two hours starting at 12 p.m.
Eastern. How much she got to talk about the
auctions because we're all focused on the five year auction at 1 p.m..
Today, but we also want to hear from her about how long she sees the Fed keeping
rates potentially above 5 percent when she starts to feel that perhaps they
need to ease or pivot into a less restrictive stance today earnings
include zoom video communications after market.
We were talking about Disney. How much do you start to see a complete
rethink of companies that were completely bid up during the pandemic?
Completely beat up Disney with Zoom. I don't think you can do that.
There is only the similarity that they both ballooned in areas where suddenly
people are rethinking the whole era of work versus home, of entertainment
versus external experiences.

So this is sort of a question mark.
What do you do? Facing the new reality and today, this
is all that people really care about. The World Cup games include England
versus Iran and about an hour time, Senegal vs.
Netherlands at 11am U.S. versus Wales at 2:00 p.m.
I'm going to anybody. I'm looking forward to that.
And I think the USA will say I am as well.
And I promise you that when I'm on the order of not talking about, but rather
than us to try to pretend they. David Blanchflower on tomorrow.
I'm sure he'll be watching. I'm sure.
I'm sure everyone's watching. Said it's not going to be really looking
for my insights in it, but nonetheless, it is going to be compelling to see some
of the diplomatic kind of aspects. Gabi, thank you so much for watching.
And the Hollywood and the early Hollywood morning, Gabi makes very clear
that Mr. Iger wouldn't be seen in the restaurant
of the Sunset Tower Hotel. He would be in the Tower Bar.
That's a surveillance camera.

Thanks, Gabi, for pointing that out this
morning right now. And if you're taking notes on the equity
market, get out the pad. Get out the paper, because Katie
Kaminski, chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex, is a turtle.
She is a turtle trader from way back, which is trend matters.
Katie, everybody would kill for your performance this year, still up 40
percent. What is the trend forward or are trends
breaking now? Yeah, Tom, it's been a phenomenal year
for trend in a year where things are very uncertain.
What we have noticed, though, is that we're going through an inflection point
right now like we saw earlier this summer.
We're starting to see that shorter term signals and longer term signals are kind
of at odds. And so I think we just, like the rest of
the market, are looking for a pivot to the next big trend.
So far, we're looking at a day like today, the dollar is coming back a
little bit.

That may not be over.
And of course, short bond signals are still there in the data.
Well, Katie, can you elaborate on that? This sort of pivot point that you see in
terms of short term and longer term signals?
What is that pivoting us to? Right.
We've come from an era where bonds have been all over the place.
But we saw a rally recently. We saw stocks being rally both stocks
and bonds rallying. What's the new pivot?
What's that new reality? Well, the thing is, we've really the
challenge has been that we've had a mixed signal.
So there's no clear signal net at this point.
And that's why I say we're definitely at an inflection point.
But if I had to look a little closer at what has changed the most, optimism has
come into signals at a level that is consistent with what we've seen
recently. So we've seen more positive signals in
equities, especially around the CPI print.
You're also seeing a little bit more reversion out of the dollar trade, but
that's still there.

So that's why it's kind of said it's a
balance between what do we see shorter term and longer term.
And the longer term signals are still definitely saying that there's some
things to worry about ahead, especially the curve, the yield curve being
inverted recently. Katie, you've nailed it with bonds in
particular. You wear short bonds, which has been the
widow maker for so many years. And this was one of the areas where you
absolutely knocked it out of the park with nearly 40 percent returns so far
this year.

How much do you buy this conviction that
we're feeling in Wall Street that that's going to be the biggest area of
outperformance by 10 year by 30 year treasuries and you're going to just do
really well next year. So we did some research this year on
bonds. It was called the short of shorting
bonds. And one of the things that we need to
think about, if we're moving into a much more focused on rising rates and higher
rates environment, is that bonds are not going to behave under inflationary
pressures like they did in the past.

And this year was just the first data
point to show us that that's the case. And I think what has been the most
fascinating to me is how we avoid thinking about long bias and so many of
us are so dependent on buying long bonds.
We forgot what it's like to actually think about how do you deal with
actually shorting bonds and how do you deal with bonds and valuation versus
inflation. And I think that is going to be the key
question for all investors over the next few years.
What's great about trend following folks and this is rumored, folks, Liverpool
may be up for sale. John Henry, owner of the Red Sox Arch
Turtle Trader. Rumor has it Henry may sell Liverpool to
Kaminsky. We'll have to see on that is.
Well, we get a lot of e-mails, Kitty, when you're when you're on with us.
Are moving averages helpful to trend followers?
Yes, I mean, I think the way we think about it, moving averages give you one
way to measure the strength of a trend.

These days we use a wide range of
different methods. Some of it is based on machine learning.
Some of it is based on different types of breakout signals.
But the point is, in environments where the world is very uncertain, you have to
turn to what the market is doing as opposed to what it should do, because
frankly, few people actually know what it should do these days because it's so
volatile and unclear what the future is actually going to hold under this
inflationary environment. Katie, thank you so much.
Katie Kaminsky, arguably the number one performance of surveillance guest this
year at Alpha Simplex is well, it's just stunning to me to see, Lisa, how trend
following versus gaming catching a knife in the dark.
How trend following. There's some years where it just clicks
in with a vengeance. And this was one of them.
Turtles, turtles. This goes back to the 70s.
I think two guys wrote a book or a paper even,
and they called it turtle trading because of the patience required.
And it started out pretty much with CTA is in the sea is for commodities because
as a general rule, commodities trend more than the other asset classes.
You climb on cocoa and you stay on cocoa.
I'm declining on lad tank futures and you just stay.
I'd take a taste for that.

That's what we do.
The kids on take futures. Thanks.
Stay with us. Futures are negative, 23 Dow futures at
negative 89. This is Bloomberg.
Good morning. Keeping you up to date with news from
around the world with the first word. I'm Lisa Mateo.
Chinese stocks in the yuan retreated as a string of reported Covid deaths and
tighter restrictions in some districts gave investors a rude reminder.
The path to any reopening will be rough. A city near Beijing that was rumored to
be a test case for removing virus restrictions across China has asked
residents to stay at home for five days. A potential sign officials are reverting
to a tighter Coke Zero curbs. Meanwhile, the country's first Covid
related death in almost six months has sparked concern that Beijing could see a
return of restrictions. The U.S.
and Chinese defense chiefs are likely to meet for their first talks since Beijing
suspended dialogue with Washington over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August
visit to Taiwan. A Pentagon spokesman says U.S.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would welcome a meeting with Chinese Defense
Minister Wei Thing Gay.

Now it's the latest sign that ties
between the two nations are stabilizing. The cop talks in Egypt have ended with
an agreement to help developing nations face the devastation of climate change.
Although the deal for a loss and damage fund paid for by rich countries is seen
as a breakthrough. Negotiators failed to agree further cuts
in CO2 emissions. Equity investors hoping for a better
year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to strategists at Goldman
Sachs Group, who say the bear market phase is not over yet.
Strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell, predict markets will
reach a final trough next year before a strong rebound.
Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more
than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than 120
countries.

I'm Lisa Mateo.
This is Bloomberg. There is more work to be done.
I expect that this will require additional increases in the federal
funds rate, followed by a period of holding rates at a sufficiently
restrictive level for some time. Susan Collins of Boston managing the
message forward for the Fed. Mary Daly is a lonely speaker today, I
believe, Lisa Marie Daly's importance. Collins is important.
Is everybody from the Fed speak? You follow his everybody on the same
page? I think so.
At this point, there is a feeling that you need to get restrictive, that
inflation is the first and foremost concern.
Leah Brainard, perhaps has been a vice chairman who is the vice chair, has been
perhaps the the most reluctant to go all in in terms of how far the Fed has to
go, in terms of how right they have to stay there.
But it's pretty unanimous. Inflation is the number one concern,
period. Full stop.
Dr. Brainerd, have an accumulative
Thanksgiving. It will be the key emulation of cooked
onions, mashed potato, green squash, creamed onions.
Yes, the cranberry sauce.

How do you do your potatoes?
How do I do potatoes? Someone else does it for
mashed potatoes. OK.
But, you know, I could go either way there.
I mean, it's it's good. Anyways, there's the Fed speak today.
We won't ask Mary Daly today what she's going to cook for Thanksgiving.
Alex Webb doesn't celebrate Thanksgiving.
He's in London and joins us now with Bloomberg.
Quick take in here on the many happy thoughts is Peter Pan said to Wendy?
John and I think it was Alex as well. And Peter Pan, think happy thoughts.
Alex, to begin, there are not happy thoughts today at Disney.
There is repair. What does Mr.
Iger have to repair? Yeah, I mean, I think that what had
happened during lockdown and not to belabor the analogy too much, but there
was a second sort of the right carry on.

So morning well, morning is arrived.
And actually what they were trying to do during the lockdowns was under pressure
from activist investors. They pivoted basically towards being a
great stock. They cut the dividend.
They invested that in Disney, passing content for Disney plus with the hope
that they would get close to the 50 plus price to forward earnings multiple that
Netflix was enjoying at the time. And that worked.
It worked during the lockdown. Of course, what we've now seen is that
there's a with rising interest rates. We've seen flight away from from growth
stocks and we've seen that for Netflix shares come down.
Of course, exacerbated by stagnating user growth and Disney shares come down
as well.

Disney has reinstated the dividend, but
it's still far lower than it was three, four years ago.
So the question for Bob Iger is, do you take more capital away from Disney plus
or do you then try to return some of that capital to investors because no
return. Now, what people sort of more immediate
returns and what investors are looking at looks.
That's the financial year. I'm very fascinated by the creative side
of which Mr. Iger excels.
Is he simply a caretaker? Is they go out and find a new creative
CEO? Well, he clearly is a caretaker.
In the sense that he's been given a two year contract and it's hard given his
age to imagine that would be extended much beyond that, even though we saw his
contract extended time and again before he ultimately hands it over to Bob.
Chief. Look, he's to Disney was trying to
stabilize earnings by investing in franchises.
We saw that with Pixar.

We saw that with Marvel.
And and we saw that with Star Wars. It was with, you know, Lucasfilm, where
they both built these franchises where you could pretty much be guaranteed
you'd be getting an audience for that films that helped stabilize revenue over
a relatively long period. Now, the calculations a little bit
different as we look at the streaming world where you need to have so much
more content. It's not just tent poles.
You need a regular cadence that is very capital intensive.
And now the market is questioning whether that capital intensity is ever
really likely to reward you with stable revenue.
How much is as a Disney story, Alex, and how much is this a broader story about
right sizing, a company that really expanded during an era of free money and
then a pandemic distortion around entertainment?
I think you're right that there is a broader peace here, that lots of other
companies, particularly, as we say, these kind of in inverted commas, growth
stocks have had to do a little bit of correction.
There is a lot of Disney specific stuff because there is an element with Bob Che
pack that, yes, maybe he mismanaged some of the the capital market stuff.
But there is also internal culture stuff.
Some of his engaging with politicians, not least in Florida, which were not
taken particularly well by the employees.
If you've lost the investment community to an extent and you've lost your
employees again to an extent, then you can see why the board might sit there
and go, well, actually, is this the right man for the job who buys ESPN?
Well, ESPN is a cash cow for Disney, right?
It doesn't really make sense for them to want to get rid of.
I'm sure there are plenty of people out there who would like to buy it.
The signals we've seen pretty much without fail have been that Disney does
not want to sell it.

And you can see why.
Think about it in terms of The New York Times.
New York Times might be pivoting toward digital, but for much of the past five
years, it's still made very good money from ads in its print business.
So Disney has a similar approach. Yes, you might think that cable is a
dying business or is in slow longtime decline, but it still remains highly
profitable and generates a huge amount of cash elsewhere.
Thank you so much.

Going to go see on the second star on
the right. Alex Webb there with our Peter Pan
theology in London. And it's the only place you can do Peter
Pan. I mean, you know, I mean, how many times
have you seen Hook, which was not on Disney?
I mean, Hook was on Tristar, but Dustin Hoffman.
Robyn Williams How many times have you seen Hook?
How many how many times have you really watched Disney plus does I do.
I just finished all of Andrew.

I actually liked it.
It was actually almost successful. I wonder how much they can cater to
adults because DAX Su Keenan as they're trying it.
The really? Other than that, no babysitter for
children and now where they have to sort of readjust, especially with Hulu.
Well, there's some enthusiasm out there. I know Doug CAC looking at Disney this
morning and finding it attractive. I believe it's his third largest
holding.

And Jason Bazinet over at Citigroup
reaffirms here, Lisa, 92 up to where I think it right now, it's roughly ninety
nine point seven, three in his price target, 145.
He says Iger, there's gonna be some theology here, like what does Disney do
with sports betting? Well, the answer is ISE is not so sure
they want to do that. Well, this is a culture question.
I do just look at the panel at the shares are down 41 percent year today.
Everything else is to walk. But this is the text of defense.
But this is the question, when do we bottom right.
And that's really the issue. People are seeing this as an
opportunity. OK.
Now it's sort of reset in terms of the pricing.
So when do we see the momentum? And that's the catharsis that we've been
looking for that people are really talking about.
Paul Sweeney is on the same page as Michael Nathan.
Nathan Soon and Richard Greenfield is to show me a sustained profit model of
streaming.

And I just don't think it's there.
And when it just I don't see it. And what about bundling?
Right. Who is going to be the bundler?
Who is going to be someone who takes this and really offers it in a way that
is comprehensive, that is organized, that is going to give people some sort
of price realism? Because honestly, when you start to put
them all together, it starts to be more than cable.
I mean, I don't know. I just I look at it like this weekend I
was watching this Bombay thing on Apple TV.
It's an Indian thing there in Bombay. Some Australian guy goes up to Bombay.
He's got a hideout in the slums and and all that.
Well, how do they make money of that? I don't mean the actors are clearly
overpaid. There's no question about it.
But how do they make money at that? I'm struggling to know where to go.
If there's a Bombay thing and there are people going around and how do they make
money look? I think that your point is well taken
that they try to do a budget, that they're big, you know, productions.
And then how do they generate the enthusiasm when it's all over the place
and displaces.

But Netflix has turned it around more
than people had expected. To do the same.
I don't know. We'll talk to the experts on this.
Fascinating to see Mr. Iger back at Disney Future zilla tapes.
Not giving me much love today. Japanese yen, 142 weaker yen.
That's important. This is Bloomberg.
Good morning. Bloomberg Surveillance Jonathan Ferro
Lisa Abramowicz Tom Keene John Fear Off on Assignment England I ran here in 30
minutes is well and I need to say thank you to all of you out Zeit Geist who've
been very supportive of how we address bitcoin Lisa.
I'll be honest in hindsight it's easy, but if none of this blow up and
happened, I still would say it.

We've killed ourselves trying to be
balanced on this and to try to not buy into the incredible enthusiasm at a time
when a lot of people didn't understand it.
But we're still investing in it. Yeah, well, we'll have to see.
What we're gonna do here is talk to two experts in bitcoin.
But first, we've got to look at a non mover market with futures negative 20.
What do you start with? Do you?
Basically, we're just gonna do real quick.
Disney shares up after people looking at what's going to happen with perhaps a
new leadership. I'm looking right now at a pop of eight
and a half percent. I'm also looking at some losers.
Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts. And this really is the prospect of
perhaps renewed shutdowns in China. And it really shows how much the entire
entertainment business hinges to some degree on what happens there in China.
That's it.

I'm not gonna like sit on this because
this is our Dana Bash ahead of the bird. Yes, that's going to do it.
You'll see it Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.
Rumor has it Bromo and Thursday is well, John and I are really on our way to
Doha. Thanks.
I appreciate it. And time with Damien Ceasar.
That's cool. That is cool.
We're gonna be great to a call because I'm the star of Katy Greifeld because
she has been outstanding and giving us coverage.
Katie, if I was teaching a lecture on point and figure, charting bitcoin from
61000 down to 16000 is one of the ugliest charts I've ever seen.
Today we dip under 16000 to 15000. Does anybody care about that price
search? I would say so.
Again, that 16000 dollar level, for better or worse, it's really held.
We did get a 20 was narrowing. We're going to.
Well, you know, we're talking about round ish number round numbers.
You say the chart is ugly. I think in a way, it's kind of
beautiful.

I mean, if you look at it over one year,
you get these plateaus, these drops, plateaus or drops, which I mean, you
don't really see that another. So in this beautiful chart that you're
looking at, why have we not seen a bigger drop if three billion dollars
were wiped out for creditors with FTSE? And we don't know where they are.
And we don't know who they are. And we don't have a sense of what the
ripple effects will be. Well, for a start, it's it's a market
that's story of whales.

Keep going.
The gray skilled Bitcoin trust, for example, that alone, it's a 10 billion
dollar Bitcoin trust race. Yeah.
Can you imagine if I revealed myself? But in any case, that controls three
point three percent of the outstanding supply of bitcoin, you have a lot of
large holders such as that. And at this point to the fact that we're
at sixteen thousand dollars from sixty nine thousand dollars, a lot of the
sellers who would be selling the marginal seller, they're gone.
They've already been flushed out. Now you're left with the true believers
who lost aren't seriously. Who are they?
I mean, is a judge going to come out and say, you have to show who they army once
are reporting on? Well, there's a difference between
someone who is now a creditor at RTX, a customer who lost money, and people who
keep their bitcoin, for example, in cold storage off these sort of hot wallets,
who have them really stored on the block chain, what is called storage.
Meantime, it means cold storage is when you're on Cukier Lake ice fishing and
you put the case of Jodi cream in the ice, a house that virtually means that
you don't actually hold your bitcoin at an exchange.
You don't trust these centralized exchanges and you don't want to be a bag
holder.

Right.
Thank you so much. Nobody to
honestly, this is a really interesting question.
And people have been asking this, Tom, for a long time, or at least for the
past couple of weeks. Why have we not seen more fallout,
especially in such a jittery market? Peter Schiff has been writing a lot
about that head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.
We're so glad you're actually in studio with us, which is fabulous.
It is wonderful to have you on this pre Thanksgiving week.
Peter, how much are you seeing some sort of, I don't know, whales and how much
you're seeing something where it's a realistic pricing action of institutions
having fully adopted a crypto asset, even if it does lose favor to some
degree. I think we have one more big lay down in
crap. Do I think we're going to see some
selling off in bitcoin? I think one of the things that supported
it recently are the fact that there are a lot of whales who have a vested
interest in keeping it higher. And there's all this talk about bitcoin
maximalist.

Right.
So there is a theory that, OK, FTT, the tokens, that was where a lot of the
trouble was maybe bitcoins, the quote unquote, safe part of crypto.
I think that narrative is gonna get hurt a little bit.
All the stuff that's been going on with the grayscale trust, LGBT CE has been
feeding into that a little bit. So people I believe, have been selling
that to buy Bitcoin. I think that's going to turn out to be a
mistake as well. Why isn't this a broader market story?
How can this be so contained given that this story really grew up in the era?
Of free money. So I think earlier this year, it's a
great question, but I think earlier this year I they were kind of tied together
because you had a lot of people who are invested in crypto.
They are invested in disruptive stocks.

They all were doing it on margin.
So every time one sneezed, it would drag down everything else that got shaken out
a little bit. So we're better off right now.
I think the next leg of this is going to be, wow, what happens to the economy.
You start looking at the amount of money that was being spent by even RTX on
advertising crypto as a whole. Right.
I think this is going to feed into the economy.
I think the wealth effect is real right this time.
We've lost three trillion dollars down to just under a trillion.
There's been huge wealth effects. I think that's going to bleed into the
economy generally. That's going to be bad.
I think it's going to turn out to be good for energy usage, though.
Peter, thanks so much for coming in. You have an August firm, hugely
conservative Academy of Securities of former admirals and the like as well.
They hang on every bit of wind shear publishes on rates, risk and Taylor
Swift, all that sell. You know, we've got to do some click
bait to even an hour as well.

How do you sell bitcoin to a
conservative shop like academy? These people are going to say it's
unregulated. It can't be regulated.
It's foreign. How do you sell bitcoin as a legit thing
to a bunch of conservative people? Academy.
So fortunate. I've been fairly negative on it, but I
think we're having these conversations. Where do we step in?
When does it get interesting for our firm to explore it?
It's really gonna come down to regulation.
Do the regulators come out and create an environment that you can feel
comfortable with? Right.
And right now it's just not there. One of my big takeaways has been for
last year to talk something as simple as where something domiciled and where are
they actually. Okay.
So you and I are on the same page on this.
Ali Baba's hanging out the Cayman Islands trying to play by a different
rulebook.

I'm going to defend Gary Gensler here
right now. What does he regulate?
Where's the domicile? I think that's really the key issue.
Right. You've got to have some sort of domicile
here. And the big question I think a lot of
people are talking about, even whether it's these great shale trusses, where is
the bitcoins? We talk about spotty TAFE, blah, blah,
blah. Right.
It's like how do you confirm on a daily basis that what you think you hold in
the crypto world is legitimately there without maybe publishing it and exposing
yourself to theft or hacking. So I think that's really the key is most
other assets you understand, whether you own it, whether it's an equity, whether
it's gold, you can pretty easily prove it.
That's been the hard part with crypto. I think that's what's going to have to
get to the heart of regulation is how do we verify this?
How do we get comfortable that we are auditing something and regulating
something that's actually there? Neel Kashkari has been talking about how
this is just a Ponzi scheme.

He doesn't really think that there's any
there, there, here. He's been very vocal about that on
Twitter and in lectures. How much is the banking industry
leveraged to the Bitcoin and frankly, to the crypto story?
Not necessarily by borrowing money to invest in crypto, but in building up
teams of people designed to trade it, designed to invest in.
I don't think the banks have really put that much effort into it.
I think they're building out, but it's a small part of their business.
The other part of this I do think people made a mistake is every time some bank
announced they were doing something on crypto, everyone read, oh, this is
great.

They're adopting and they're adopting.
No, no. Banks are very smart, right?
If there's better offer to be made, if there's some trading revenue to be made.
They're going to get involved. That's not a commitment to it.
So I think banks can pull back if this doesn't work out.
And to me, bitcoin is always about adoption, the rate of adoption.
When you want to get bullish on it, you see adoption coming up.
I just don't see it going up anytime soon.
In fact, I see it dropping as more and more people question why they want to be
in this space. What's your call for 2023?
Let's get out front of your you're ahead report.
Well, Taylor Swift, not sure about that. I think crypto going down will be sub
10000 thousand on bitcoin calling. Sub ten thousand.
Definitely. I think that actually potentially
happens even this year. I like rates, though.
I think yields are actually pry the easiest trade.
I want to be long yields right now.

I think treasuries are going to rally.
I think the economy is rolling over. The data's rolling over.
And as hawkish as the Fed wants to talk, the markets are starting not to listen
to it. So I love owning bonds here.
Well, but we were talking NIKKEI Weinberg earlier and he says
quantitative tightening. What about quantitative tightening?
So to me, quantitative tightening is a little bit the opposite of quantitative
easing fact. Almost exact opposite.
I find quantitative easing easier to explain.
It's like if you have these Newton cradle, right, where you drop this one
ball and stuff shoots out at the end. So that's what happened.
That shoots out and where it really expose itself at the riskiest end of the
spectrum. Right.
So every single person winds up having to make a choice.
I have to either buy longer duration assets, riskier assets, less liquid
assets. And it really comes out at the far end.
That's why I think crypto did so well.

All these disruptive stocks.
When it comes back in, it's not going to express itself in yield.
It's going to be in the riskiest assets. I think stocks can still lag from here.
And it's not going to express itself regardless what we're doing on the
quantitative tightening in the bond market.
Bonds pays yield down. Stocks don't play.
No, I think not.

I think maybe we get a little surge in
stocks after we get through this crypto debacle where people get back to
comfortable lower yields is good for stocks.
Then I think the reality is going to be, you know, yields are going lower because
the economy. He has rolled over, we've done too much.
We have these problems and quantitative tightening, I think is more impactful on
equities and risk assets than bonds. I mean, ever more came out Taylor Swift
with Jackie up north from the National I mean, what they did, Peter, during the
pandemic. She just said, I'm not I'm not laying
low for the pandemic. And they just created and creating
crude. And look at the payoff.
Now, it's been phenomenal. I think one question that's been coming
up directly to our business is what does this do for everyday activity?
Right.

We've already had D.C.
that doesn't like m any activity. And all of a sudden you've got Live
Nation, these companies, you know, getting reported on.
I think it's going to be interesting and I think that's going to be a headwind
for emanate next year. We're not really prepared to talk about
Taylor Swift. Is that really what we're doing?
No, I wasn't that prepared. But I figured, you know, I think time
you've got to be ready for launch of the national on what she did here
acoustically was stunning. I mean, I mean, Anthony is my hero.
But, you know, I'm not an expert in Taylor Swift.
I will say that the controversy over some of the ticket sales is going to be
something that song illicit affairs moment.
I heard it. Boom.
Are you a timeless. Taylor Swift?
No, I'm not, actually. Thank you so much.
With Academy Securities Futures leads to the day you could do the data checked
about. Hey.
All right. Yeah.
There's nothing here of a Turkish lira, thirteen point six three tons.
Like, please tell a story because it's went well.
The Nasdaq is down a tenth of a percent.

And that's actually the yen is
fascinate. Dollar's stronger yen weaker today.
That's a back story for this holiday. Lengthen workweek.
Please stay with us again. This is Bloomberg Surveillance.
Keeping you up to date with news around the world with the first word.
I'm Lisa Matteo in Indonesia. At least 46 people are dead and about
700 others injured after a five point six magnitude earthquake shook the
western Java region today. Several homes, stores and public
buildings are damaged and landslides are reported following the roughly seven
second earthquake. Tremors were felt in nearby cities,
including the capital Jakarta. In a newspaper interview, Germany's
defense minister says the country is offering Patriot missile defense systems
to Poland. Last week, a strike killed two people in
a Polish village near the Ukrainian border.
Germany also intends to extend a deployment of Patriot batteries in
Slovakia through 2023. The UN's atomic agency says powerful
blast shook the area of Ukraine. Zafer Fritzi, a nuclear power plant.
Over the weekend, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned U.S.
policymakers to focus on building the country's own economic strength in its
contest with China rather than on attacking its adversary.
We in the United States probably need to be careful about our evangelizing
influence.

I don't think it's really for us to tell
China how they should organize their entire society.
Summers also cautioned about Washington becoming too aggressive with regard to
strengthening ties with Taiwan, which Beijing resort regards as part of its
territory. And Twitter's head of France announced
his departure. Damien Bell led the region for about
seven years. A number of workers at the Paris office,
which had fewer than 50 employees before billionaire Elon Musk took over last
month. Our focus on advertiser relationships.
Moscow is considering additional layoffs and has already slashed Twitter's
workforce in half. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on
Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than 27 other journalists and analysts.
I'm Lisa Matteo. This is Bloomberg. I still think the question about is
inflation peaked misplaced? Yeah, probably has the better question
is, is it going to 2 percent or is it going to stop at 4?
Because if it stops before then, the Fed is not into too aggressive.
I mean, the cap is going to stop somewhere around for three and a half.
And that's the real problem. Not that we've peaked, but that we're
not under way back to 2 percent.

Jim Bianco, they're driving the
conversation forward and it's a huge debate about whether the Fed with their
interest rates. What's a consensus right now?
Lisa, I don't I don't really think I have one Dani Burger.
The only consensus consensus light is that long duration bonds, just as
Pinochet were saying, are going to perform on next year.
Yeah. To be a yearling and that stocks are
kind of going to meander. And that seems to be also how they're
feeling and they're going to see peak dollar.
There are some consensus is forming massive, seeing a lot of calls that
China is going to outperform just based on how much pain has already been
absorbed into certain valuation. So those are some of the themes that I
keep hearing moving the schedule around because the World Cup Lisa Abramowicz
and Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro is waiting for England around here in 12 minutes.
And Lisa, Friday, when you're with Damien Samsara.
I didn't have the time up yet.

Fairly had sent me the time at 2 p.m.
Wall Street time, England, U.S. A and John selected a bar to go have the
beverage of our choice and became I was laughing as I'm thinking, you know that
Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz are gonna lead the football coverage throughout,
which really is. Yeah, pretty much says it all.
That's why I think Mike's helicopter almost crashed.
So by that saving us in Doha. Simone Foxman joins us right now outside
the stadium, 30 miles north or so of Doha.
The other day. But today, within the skyscrapers of
Doha in our studio is, well, Samoan.

Let me give you an open question after
what we saw yesterday. How's it going for this global event?
Or in the stadium and Albert Stadium yesterday.
I think it went pretty well, yeah. There were some growing pains.
There was a lot of traffic from the cars getting there.
That was one of the few stadiums not connected to the metro system.
But it was a pretty impressive opening ceremony.
Less impressive game. Ecuador easily defeated Qatar to nil,
but also impressive in the stands. We had the leaders of Turkey, of Egypt
and the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, closely chatting with Gianni
Infantino, I might add.

Well, it's going to be interesting today
and I really go forward to tomorrow. Denmark, Tunisia, I think is a game.
I'm speaking a fellow. I took notes and Cheryl called me today.
France, Australia. Maybe that's interesting.
Where's the tension today in this first day where we really get started?
It's all about England, Iran, and that kicks off in just 10 minutes.
Yeah, it does. It does 4:00 p.m.
local time. There are fans making their way into the
stadium right now, but there is a lot of political drama on the pitch, off the
pitch. For one, we saw just a couple hours ago,
FIFA tell teams that captains could not wear a rainbow colored armbands.
This was something that Harry Kane of England in particular, but also some
other teams really wanted to do in support of LGBTQ rights.
But now FIFA is threatening soccer sporting sanction.
The teams telling them don't do that.

But also, remember, massive
demonstrations going on in Iran. We are very closely watching to see how
the team reacts because the team has traditionally been this hotbed of regime
unity. But now a lot of Iranian fans say they
don't want to celebrate, given all the tragedy that they see just across the
Persian Gulf. Simon, what does this do for FIFA?
Why is FIFA so insistent on cracking down on wearing armbands that support
LGBTQ rights? You know, they are really sad, they've
been really supportive of Qatar the whole way through.
Recently we heard a pretty strong speech by FIFA President John Infantino
essentially calling out Western criticism for being racist.
He said he felt discriminated against as a guy with red hair and freckles.
Living in a foreign country and compared that to the experience of gays, Africans
and the like. It was a little bit bizarre.
But, you know, I think they really want to stands behind Qatar.
They've invested so much in this experience.
They don't want the country to kind of continue to face this.
They are trying to encourage players to play football on the field and not
follow the recommendations of activists who are saying, hey, players, hate
crimes, bring attention to these issues while you're there.
I've never been to Doha.

Simon, is it.
Is it bustling? I mean, what's the amount?
I mean, is it like the walkway up towards the top stadium where it's
really bustling and all that? Is it bustling or is it.
Just so big that it's not bustling. You know, Qatar, Doha is a pretty small
place. But what surprised me is it hasn't been
bustling. I was out at the some of the fan zones,
the fan areas yesterday, and they're just for not a ton of people milling
around. I'm going to go out there and just an
hour or so and take a look once again.

But yeah, cutters worked really hard to
try and limit the number of people who can come into the country right now.
You can only come in if you're a ticket holder, if you're registered guest of a
ticket holder, and that to prevent too much pressure on some of the
infrastructure. But wouldn't it be a terrible thing if,
you know, by preventing so many people from coming, you ended up with, you
know, not a fun, underpopulated. Yeah.
Well, that's a that's it certainly was an issue at the end of the Ecuador
versus Qatar game.

I am wondering whether we're going to
see Messy and Renaldo face off. This has been one of the big questions,
Argentina versus Portugal. The one thing that I do know is the
legacy of these two superstars is going to be determined to this World Cup.
What's the latest in terms of what the likelihood is that they'll get
channeling your inner Jonathan Ferro? I don't know.
You know, I have to say I'm not the best force better in my bracket is probably
entirely wrong. But certainly there are a lot of fans,
particularly from Argentina. I've seen a lot of Argentinean fans.
I've seen a lot of Brazilian fans. Did a handful of Portuguese fans in
town.

Certainly the Ecuadorian fans were out
in full force last night. Saman, thank you so much.
In Doha through December 18th and of course, the World Cup.
We'll have coverage on that for you as we can, particularly led by, I should
say, John Farrell surveillance correction.
It's good to do a correction. We're done on a slow Monday.
Jimmy Nelson says it's time, you stupid idiot.
You remember the turtle book? We're talking to Katie Kaminski.
Yeah. And I said there was a turtle book, like
everybody read it. And Jim says, wait.
Richard Dennis did this years ago. And I remember this now.
Thank you, Jim, for mentioning this. It was a course, I think, in New York.
It was a course you went to Richard Denniss trend following technical
trading course, which became known as turtle trading.
I know it went through three original people when you open it.
You said, here comes a turtle.

Scott, please don't hang up on this.
Please don't pick up new color dada. And yet that has been a point of pride
for her this year. Oh, yes, she has done absolutely
phenomenally well. And you pointed out something really
interesting. Tom, you said this traditionally is to
not lose as much money or just do consistently well.
And this year it has been a blowout bang up year.
And how much cannot continue and how much is that really just a sort of a
highlight right moment that we're in? I'll defer to the pros on this,
including Ms. Kaminski.
But to me, so much of trend following is not about making money.
It's about avoiding losing money.

It's it's a little bit different than
the way so much of the media portrays my, you know, my long bitcoin at 40000.
That was turtle trading. Yes.
So it's really a long Austrian bond. Oh, no.
Have they asked? We're going to be buried with
some serious turtle right over there, huh?
David Riley, chief investment strategist of Blue Bay.
I said on your next bond purchased Bloomberg Surveillance.
Good morning. This economy is still the most resilient
economy in the world. The rally could continue.
I do think it is a bear market rally. I mean, you know, it could go to the end
of the year. There are huge opportunities underneath
the surface. There's still going to be facing and
also a lot of volatility in 2023.

Really, what we're doing here is
potentially with an earnings decline that is not yet priced into the market
for 2023. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom
Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.
It is not a big week. Not at all.
This Thanksgiving weekend. Yes, it is.
This is Bloomberg Surveillance Tom Keene.
Lisa Abramowicz Jonathan Ferro Jonathan Ferro.
Often a well-deserved day off.

We are looking at a day ahead of this
holiday shortened week where there is a great reset.
And right now, Tom. That is what I'm focused on all of the
year ahead. Outlooks that speak of a new 2023 of a
very different kind, trying to get those slipped out.
Now, some of them weighed in. To be fair to all the wonderful guests
we have, they have to not front run what their clients would see.
There's some serious regulations over that, but we can see them here and
there. Tony Dwyer, who's been hard core five,
10, 15 years linking recession to equity downturns he calls recession.
Kitty Kaminski on earlier has been up almost 40 percent year to date as you
put really well time that she basically has been probably the best performing
surveillance guest that we've had on regularly.
How much has she been seeing a pivot, a new dynamic in the trend following
space, where suddenly the long term in the short term indicators are not
sending some sort of consistent message? How much is that reflected in the
outlooks, in the angst that we're feeling from Wall Street?
Right.

As you mentioned the last hour, I think
we can say the call now into all of a sudden the jobs report important in
December, the inflation report getting us to December 14th and the Fed meeting
is there seems to be a new call, Bond's price up, yield down by bonds.
That's been basically one consensus out there.
A little bit of pushback around the edges and the corporate side of things.
We have been talking about Disney all morning.
And I keep going back to this question of is this a Disney story or is this a
broader OK, now? What story now that we're past the
pandemic and now that money costs something to go to the news here today?
Alex, Rob, I thought was brilliant, quoting Peter Pan, second star in the
right here, Disney.

I mean, come on, this is a big deal
today. Check it out.
Some people are not surprised. I'll be honest.
I'm one of them. You know, I wouldn't like overtly say
that on air. Nobody cares what my opinion is.
But Mr. Iger returns.
But how much is this really the comeback of activist shareholders?
And I ask this because he always said you're seeing that, you know, you're
seeing pelts come in with try on taking a significant stake.
How much you're going to see some others do the same thing at most companies face
off with the sort of painful do we have to cut jobs, kind of like tack or can we
hold on to people? Where do you prioritize just keeping the
staff at a time when you saw that the real pain were losing people and not
being able to rehire? Now the store to China.
I mean, there it is again, you know. You know, are they going to be able to
reopen? Yeah.
And this is a reason why you're seeing certain stocks kind of fall off in the
hope of reopening China.

I don't know.
Right now, I'm seeing the biggest takeaway from the resets, the sort of
look ahead is that we're going to see more pain.
And that's been basically Morgan Stanley, that's been Goldman Sachs out
today with their outlook, basically saying that they see sort of meandering
stock performance to the same place. That's right.
Next year. On Gloom is not from Oakland.
It's Goldman Sachs, wrote Lew Gloom. It's Susan Stanley gloom.
It's Wall Street gloom. Sure, we do a data check, too.
Let's do it. You know, I mean, you could start.
I mean, there it is. It's down.
All right. I'm looking right now at the Nasdaq
lower by about eight tenths of a percent.
You could see the S&P down a little bit less than that.
You could see, you know, not a lot of movement in terms of directionality.
You could see a bit of dollar strength after a whole host of dollar weakness,
one or 237 on the euro dollar.

The tenure is interesting to me.
Three point eight to five percent. Remember, we were talking about a 5
percent yield when we would X would see that way off.
And you've pointed this out, the oil price, what we've seen there is
interesting as well. Just.
Are we going to slip further given WTI below 80 dollars a barrel, Saudi 959.
That wasn't the data. Chuck I was talking about is a raging
debate. And this is on the Internet as well as
at the Keene House to cook turkey 350 or 425.
It's a serious issue. I think you do both like to cook them
hot first, bring it down to the slow roast and then bring it up at the end.
But it would just be one theory. What do you think?
I think that you're not cooking this year, and I think you should do a
Twitter poll.

I think that NIKKEI president.
I think that turkey. Okay.
Unpopular opinion. Nobody ever really likes Turkey.
It's sort of always too much as left or right.
And you end up it's always dry. I'm just saying, before we get to David
Reilly, Lisa, this is important thing now telegraph here in London, of course,
it's England and Iran. It's starting right now.
We'll bring you down as well. Ferals there.
He's got a cell phone out so he can tell us what's going on.
But very seriously, on the sidelines, Alex Scott of the BBC is wearing one of
these armbands.

Interesting.
Interesting. In the media, they're sitting on the
sidelines with their BBC sport microphones, warbling gaily about the
game and about the football. But they're wearing the armband the
players can't wear. I don't know where that goes, but that's
part of the social aspect of this world. Yeah, I wonder where that's gonna go in
terms of FIFA and just how much pushback there comes against FIFA right now.
We're going to turn to some of the focus on the year ahead.
One of the biggest consensus calls go long bonds.
David Riley, chief investment strategist at Blue Bay Asset Management, here to
weigh in. Is this your number one as well?
Ten year, 30 year. The longer the better.
Yeah, I do think it's going to be a year when education
actually pays off and it will make sense to be long duration.
I'm actually more inclined to go in terms of the Treasury curve towards a
five year point, and that's because I do think the is more likely than not that
the US economy goes into recession.

I think we're probably could therefore
get some boost deepening in the curve. Normally you'd expect that at the very
short term, but we don't really know how far and how fast inflation would fall
and therefore we don't really know at what point does the Fed start
considering rate. Cause I think the 5 year is probably
quite a good sort of sweet spot I'm with.
I'd also be buying some high grade credit at this level as well.
See how he likes the five year auction. That's what he was just saying right
there. Thank you.
Let's look at this for our true love.

We think Zack Rameau.
So thank you, David. I do wonder, though, at what point
you're looking at a return to the old normal, right, at this idea that we're
going back to an inflation that's sub 2 percent or even 2 percent.
And other people pushing back. Where do you say to them, look, we're
not going to have a high inflation regime for a very long time and bonds
will be able to reassert themselves in a way that we are used to.
Well, because I do think that we are at or very close to the peak in inflation
and, you know, I think it's right to highlight just how much uncertainty we
do have in terms of how far and how fast inflation falls and that something very
critical for the Fed and other central banks and therefore for the outlook for
the bond market. But I don't see a sort of
self-fulfilling or self-perpetuating wage price spiral.
And if you think we're going into recession, as I think we are going into
not only a European but also us and global recession,
that's very negative in all sorts of ways.
And Sara, people are going to be losing their jobs on the back about that.
But we know from experience that does bring inflation down.
Inflation is going to be coming down.

It's just about a pace and the magnitude
of that through next year. David, tell me about the value of cash
here. If I a quote unquote, going into a
recession, is cash good or is cash trash?
I do think that as we go into recession, I think what is going to be of
particular value is to have liquidity within portfolios.
Now some of that's going to come from having holdings of
cash, but I also think it means a bias towards
credit core fixed income, which he's now giving you, you know.
I mean, one of the key differences is a lot of differences, but one of the key
differences going into 2023 compared to when we went into 2012 to when we went
into this year, is that we're actually starting with much higher levels of
yield. And that's giving you a an income
cushion, which you otherwise wouldn't, you know, didn't at the start of 2022.
So you have some liquidity, have some cash.
I think a bias towards the more liquid securities, but I don't think it's an
invite.

I think there are opportunities out
there for you to deploy cash. I wouldn't be holding too much cash.
Right. David, we need you to get back to
England around. I know that's what you're really focused
on here. We thank you for coming on.
We've got people outside. There's a ticketing snafu at the
stadium. I is down worldwide, but also in minute
three with McGuire advancing, David. Somebody, quote, talks about a stone
bunker of a penalty every. Not here, David.
Save us. What is stone bunker made?
You've called me out. That's home.
I'm not sure what those numbers actually means, but it sounds like it's a
neighborhood on a penalty that has been conceded and no league described it.
He sounds they may be conceded by England, which would rather be in
keeping with the style that England often make to World Cup tournament.
A lot of the build up and then some disappointment when the game gets
underway.

Let's hope I'm wrong and let's hope it's
different this time around. David Riley with piercing analysis is
there in for John Farrell as well. David Riley, Blue Bay asset manager.
Can I make clear Farrell would exactly know what Stone Barker means 100
percent, and he would give us some very great historical picture of where that
comes from. I just have to say I'm getting quite a
bit of hate mail about my dislike of turkey.
It's not that I dislike it, it's just that it's never good.
It's just like it's attic.

Well, people are suggesting that I don't
brine it. And as someone suggests that I do a
bourbon brine and then you would enjoy bourbon dry bourbon.
Other people are saying that that's one way to do it.
I don't know. Leftovers.
I can't do the leftovers for two weeks. I don't know.
I'm sorry. These are the things that we think about
it. Like, you know, Thanksgiving post, post,
Thanksgiving post, dinner, ready, turkey exhaust.
We're going to solve this for Bramble right now, folks.
And we say good morning and Thanksgiving week to Jerome Schneider.
Oh, yeah. He's going to come and give us advice.
The website is Gobble, Gobble. They are.
Greenberg Smoked Turkeys. Lisa, the kids will love it.
You'll be ordering turkey every 30 days from Texas.
Smoke turkey. What are the shopping channel?
I had a Thanksgiving.

Same thing with Iran.
Stay tuned. This is Bloomberg.
Good morning. Keeping you up today with news from
around the world with the first word. I'm Lisa Matteo.
Well, Prime Minister Ricci's soon neck says the UK isn't prepared to align
itself with EU laws as part of their post Brexit relationship.
Following reports, his government is open to Switzerland style ties with the
bloc.

Under my leadership, the United Kingdom
will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU
laws, having the regulatory freedom to do that.
It's an important opportunity of Brexit. And that's my agenda.
And I'm confident that agenda is not only right for the country, but can
deliver enormous benefit for people up and down the UK in the years to come.
So next poke today at the Confederation of British Industry's annual conference
in Birmingham. Food giant Cargill says names named
Bryan Sykes as its new chief executive officer to replace David McLennan.
A Cargill is America's largest private company.
Sykes became chief operating officer year after running Cargill's meat
business. He will take on the top job on January
1st and McLennan will become executive chair.
Seven national football teams, including England, will not wear a rainbow armband
showing solidarity with LGBTQ rights, vowing to pressure from FIFA because
players might receive a yellow card for the show of support.
Qatar has been under intense scrutiny leading up to the World Cup over the
treatment of migrant workers, as well as concerns about human rights and its
criminalization of homosexuality.

And it wasn't the start the hosts were
hoping for on the pitch, beaten two to nothing by Ecuador in the opening match.
Today, the U.S. takes on whales global news 24 hours a
day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven
hundred journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries.
I'm Lisa Matteo. This is Bloomberg. I don't think this is a will for the
stolen dollar trade. I think there's still a lot of pain to
come in terms of the global economy. I think there's still a lot of
hawkishness yet to come through from the Fed.
James Foley, Rabobank. There are no doubt watching England ran
right now with John Farrell. We thank her always for her perspective
as well. And Rabobank, Lisa, has a really
different approach to say this all the time, but I think it's important.
Our next guest is very, you know, speculation.
How do you make money here, etc, etc. And the bottom line is
Jane Foley's working for a huge agricultural bank where it's about
hedging business transactions to protect yourself.
So the other side of the trade, you mean when derivatives actually had a concrete
purpose in the world, when companies if you're lumber yard, you've got to
actually hedge against the lumber prices going down in order to back that up.
And that's really where perhaps the biggest mismatch is, particularly in
oil.

Right.
Where does the physical world and the financials world, where do they kind of
cohere and where are they really diverging?
Where to start strong this week with George Servos, global head of ethics
research at Deutsche Bank. George, you're piecing it together with
Dr Focus Lansdown, with Alan Ruskin and the rest.
What's your dollar's theme of an outlook into 2023?
Good morning, Tom. It's a much more choppy and sideways
outlook. I think if you take a look back this
year and look at when you're at all made the low around 95 in September and think
about what was going on back then, the UK had a fiscal crisis.
European, not gas prices were at three hundred.
They've now come down to 100. U.S.
CPI was still accelerating. China was still falling strict 0 Covid.
So you have this confluence of risk, negative events all adding up together.
And when we look at the biggest driver of the dollar this year, it's all being
about the safe haven risk premium. So the argument we've been making in
recent weeks is not risk premium in ACC.

Census piece.
It's just gonna be very hard for everything to be as bad at the same time
next year as it was this year. And as a result, the dollar has most
likely peaked. But I think that's a very, very
different conversation to arguing that the dollar will enter into this big
downtrend and we don't see that happening at least over the next six
months. So we're the first right next.
What does see them do? See opportunity here in beleaguered
currencies. So I think in an environment where the
dollar is cheap, here is essentially what we're saying is dollar correlations
can go down. It's no longer one big trade.
Twenty twenty two was essentially one big trade.
Sell everything on just dollar cash.

And if that's changing, you're an
environment with a bit more differentiation in terms of stories of
European growth, Europe potentially emerging from a recession.
I think as soon as Q1, China potentially accelerating, you're in an environment
where some currencies cannot perform in emerging markets that often carry a real
yield. And you want to be funding those longs,
those high yielding currencies in things that still have very poor fundamentals.
For example, the pound or the Swedish krona, which is faced with its own
issues, so much more tactical and idiosyncratic.
Yes, I think compared to what has been a very, very one directional move so far
in 2022.

I love your your bullish call on other
currencies and bearish call on the dollar is it's very hard for everything
to be as bad at the same time next year as it was this year.
It's not exactly a screaming buy. I'm wondering, though, whether the euro
is going to benefit the most from this lack of conviction around just hiding
out in the dollar, especially, as you say, if they're emerging from recession
in the first quarter.

So the euro can take out negative risk
premium, so to speak. If you think back to where we were in
September, not gas prices, for example, it needed two thirds down from a growth
perspective. The market expected a very sharp
recession from September, October onwards, onwards, which is
materializing. Growth is shifting down to negative.
But the reality is we've had a much bigger fiscal response than most people
were expecting. It seems like this window for escalation
around gas and shortages is closing. So potentially that story is looking
better now to make the argument that you're going all the way back up to 115.
That's actually 120 and reversing the entire move since the war.
I think that's a much more aggressive argument that requires you to be very
optimistic on how the conflict goes. But can you take risk premium out as you
have? Can you stay above parity?
I think the answer is yes, because the environment is just not going to be as
bad as it was over the course of this year.
A couple hours ago, Carl Weinberg joined us from High Frequency Economics.
He was talking about this stealth quantitative tightening that was going
to take effect in the euro region come Wednesday, that about 300 billion
dollars of loans to banks would be redeemed and they would get the bonds
back that backed them and that this was going to cause long and yields to rise
substantially.

That people really hadn't understood
this. What's your understanding of the
quantitative tightening cost consequences in the euro region?
So this was this is in response to the TLT, although repayments were announced
on Friday. They were actually significantly lower
than consensus, though around half the market was expecting 600 billion.
And we only have 300 been every repayment.
So from an ECB perspective, you're actually not getting as much chance of
tightening potentially as they would have hoped.
We need to wait and see what the December repayment numbers are going to
be as well. But either way, the point I would make
on Europe is if you look at things like five year, five year GDP, wait with real
yields, they're actually not that high.

If you look at the DAX, it's less than
10 percent down from the start of the year.
So financial conditions in Europe have not talked to nearly as much as in the
US. That's another reason why.
Actually, the ECB can stay hawkish. Now, whether that's what I want you to
see, more viral, more rate hikes. It remains to be seen.
But that's also a story that I think could be more supportive for the euro
compacts. The Fed.
Well, we're slowly the station is evolving into the question of when do we
get the force? I think cutting is a very different
question, but at least can we enter a pause in the cycle?
That's a much more balanced debate to be having over 2023.
George Soros, thank you so much.

Really look forward to the Deutsche Bank
view. Forward into 2023 is, of course, in
London with Deutsche Bank. Lisa, I'm watching the game here.
John Farrell waved to me from the stands, which is great.
England 0, Iran 0. And what's fascinating here?
You know what I mean? Thank you.
Thank you. Steve Jobs and Tim Cook for deploying to
Israel. They are watching the game on air while
you're here. We do some good business here.
I thought it's fascinating to me as they look in the corners around attacks and
there's a Budweiser advertising. And, you know, Friday we were talking
about Budweiser couldn't sell beer at the game.
And right in the same corner is crypto DAX.
I don't know, crypto DAX as I went to the website and this is the heart of the
Katie Greifeld matter of Bitcoin receiving rewards up to fourteen point
five percent on your crypto assets.

All of this Bitcoin debate we're having
is about with us. You can make eight percent with us.
You can make 10 percent in this case. There it is on the Web site with us.
You can make fourteen point five percent.
Thank you. You and I call this a free lunch.
How can you get rich quick? I'm just so distracted by the fact that
you've been watching the game this whole time.
No, I wasn't. You know, it's late in there.
It's a good game. It's very different from Ecuador.
Cutter on both sides.

Yeah.
Way more skill. I mean, I don't want to line.
I don't know, John again. I play well.
Come on, Jonathan. John, come on.
They're heading into the end zone with the Dow Jones John. Good morning, everyone.
Bloomberg Surveillance futures are negative 20 now negative 13, so I guess
that's an advance on a very churning market.
Waiting for information as well. On the data front, I'm going to give you
well, American oil is 79, 50 per barrel under eighty dollars.
That gets my attention given the yen servos didn't play it up much at
Deutsche Bank, but we are 142 yen there, which is a weaker yen first time and I'm
going to say two weeks. How much does that have to do with China
and the idea that any kind of reassertion of Covid lockdowns could end
up really reducing some dynamism there? Halfback for the fullback?
Yeah, that's right.

This is going to be dealing with sooner
likely for another 90 minutes, have to back half.
And I'm sure everyone's really enjoying this.
We're still on air that keeps kicking the ball back to their goal.
I didn't think it was a classic move even.
I know that really, honestly, people are now throwing things at the screen.
I am so sorry. I'm going to take Jonathan Ferro roll.
I'm really sorry to radical caught relooking this is shit for our city.
See, Veronica? There it is.
You're watching the game. The woman who was shot in England's
training, though. We'll have to see.
OK. Veronica Clarke was working with Andrew
Holland Hawes at Citigroup as they adjust to their call of a year.
I would suggest maybe with Deutsche Bank.
OUTFRONT first to the ramification of global slowdown and particularly the
vector of interest rates higher.

That's what everybody wants to know.
You sit with Hollande, horsed over a Starbucks coffee in the morning and you
say, where's the terminal? Right.
Where's the new Citigroup terminal? Yeah, we we have the terminal right now
at 525 to 550 and getting there by the May meeting of Tidjane Thiam Bullard
wrong when he talks about 7 percent X number of days ago.
I mean, he might not be wrong. He's been kind of a leading sign for the
Fed this year. And I think it's fair to think that, you
know, the rate needs to get to anywhere from 5 to 7, but the lag effects not to
change. Lael Brainard here, but there is a
question of how much companies are already feeling a lot of tightening and
they're ratcheting back their plans for next year's year and may have to really
cut some staff. So from your vantage point, how do you
dismiss that as a relevant factor for the Fed?
I think that is very relevant, though. I mean, where we're anecdotally hearing
that people are cutting back now, but you really haven't seen it in the data
yet.

And that's really what's going to be
most important for us. What's important for the Fed is just
what are you seeing in the inflation data?
And then also importantly, the labor market data.
And we we still have really low initial jobless claims.
It still seems the job openings are high and there's not enough loosening it.
But this is the important point when you talk about tech layoffs and we've talked
extensively, we've got Amazon cutting 10000 jobs.
You have Twitter, of course, its own story.
You've have all met cutting thousands of jobs.
How much do you look at this and say it's a tech story and it's a tech story
that could deepen, but it's tech isolated?
Yeah, I mean, I think it's fair to see, you know, first, the weakness in sectors
like tech or real estate, of course, the housing market would be most affected
first by it by rate hikes. But eventually, you know, you probably
do see it broadening out to the rest of the economy.
We think we see that really know as we're getting into 2023.
When you talk to your markets people, how do they link the whole North Clark
analysis into what the stock market will do?
That is part of economics, even at New York University?
Yeah.

No, it absolutely does matter.
And the story of the last share has been, of course, higher rates.
That's tighter financial conditions, lower equities.
The last couple weeks after CPI, maybe we've reversed some of that.
But I still think, you know, the momentum is maybe, you know, risk assets
still lower. What does investment do?
Business investment. Next year it was 11 percent of the
economy, 15. Yeah, yeah, roughly.
I mean, it should be slowing. And we've already seen that, of course,
in any housing related investment that was very weak in Q3.
GDP should be weak again in Q4. Yeah, eventually, especially given that
goods demand has come off, you should see businesses pulling back less, less
manufacturing activity, that type of thing.
And this is a segment where we go into housing and Tom talks about how he
expects something more significant. And a lot of people are saying, yes,
that seems to be the most logical conclusion from a 7 percent mortgage
rate. And other people saying no, because of
just the behavioral aspect of this, which we were talking about earlier,
people are going to stay put.

There's going to be less mobility.
If there are fewer homes for sale, you're not going to necessarily see the
realized price declines. How do you game that out in this
controversial moment of really historic weakness for the housing market?
Yeah, I think there is still more weakness to come.
But yes, it will matter. You know what's happening on the supply
side where you do get this pullback in construction also.
And so there's less housing stock and maybe then prices don't fall as much.
But we well, we have seen so far is that home sales are falling, constructions
falling, and prices are also falling.

But could you see a real rout, not
necessarily akin to the 2007 2008 leverage fueled destruction, but
something more significant after the buildup that we saw during the pandemic.
And then the Dallas reporter, the Dallas Fed report that really highlights.
How it could spiral, especially as people get less optimistic about how
much their homes are worth. Yeah, I wouldn't expect that.
You know, we're in a 2008 type scenario that was a pretty housing specific
bubble that popped. But of course, housing is weak and it
tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator for the rest of activity.
But I think more what's happening is housing is just the first to feel the
impact of Fed rate hikes. And eventually you see it in, you know,
consumption that's slowing down other business investment that's slowing down
people losing their jobs. But it's all coming back to that, what
the Fed has done.

So what's the path to December 14th?
It's a sleepy Monday. Futures proved negative, 20 out negative
14. We're going to get Wednesday.
You're cooking Thursday reduced. Talk to him Wednesday.
Yes, probably tomorrow. Even start.
That's OK. I have a very small oven, so I need to
plan these things. OK.
Well, we'll talk to Holland or. I mean, I can see Ms.
Clark with the Viking, you know, the big, you know, six Bernheim.
So I'm sorry. I'm so weeding through all the hate mail
that I got. You know, it's really carry on.
But seriously here we got to stagger to December 14th.
Is this a snooze fest? Who's actually going to be some real
change in the tone as we get to December 14?
Yeah, I think it could be an interesting couple of weeks.
This week is relatively slow on important data.
Of course, we'll get Fed minutes on Wednesday.
That November Fed meeting feels like a long time ago, but it could be an
opportunity to somewhat hawkish push back on markets.
Next week, of course, we'll get a lot of labor market data that will be very
important.

The perils number morning and just in
the last week. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, we're we're really looking for, you know, I think for the Fed right now,
if we do get some slowing in inflation, which it seems like we might, but you
not you're not seeing it in the slowing in service inflation that's related to a
tight labor market. And then you do need to see that
loosening in the labor market data. OK.
But, you know, I just want you know, I got some notes on a chart, but I think
this is really, really important. What part of the jobs report should our
listeners and viewers study? Yeah.
I mean, all of it matters, which is hard.
I mean, the value add here. All that matters.
I think most maybe most interesting. What I would be watching first is what
happens with the unemployment rate. It did tick up last month for October.
If it falls back again, that's still a really tight labor market.
What's the one issue that the team over at city argues about the most where
there's the most good and Su Keenan.

Thank you.
That's a good question. I don't know.
I mean, I think where we're relatively in consensus, I think maybe, you know,
it could be hard as we're getting into next year to know, you know, exactly
what the Fed is doing when you get more of this debate between the hawks and the
doves. And I think we we do want to remember
that, you know, we've we've been very hawkish this year.
The Fed has been, too. But this could be somewhat of an
inherently dovish Fed. I mean, this is a Fed that cut rates
three times in 2019.

We might get more debate among ourselves
to just exactly how this how it plays out next year.
There's going to be a discussion around the Thanksgiving table.
This comes up every single year. You're sitting with the chair of chairs.
Never talk to you anymore. You talk about education.
You did one of the toughest grind, mathematics in economics in Chapel Hill
and then economics at NYU. How do we keep women engaged in
mathematics to get them through high school and into college?
I mean, I know there's a huge improvement there, but what was it that
kept you engaged in mathematics? I had really great teachers in high
school. And I don't I'm not an education expert.
I don't know, you know, how you improve that, but I think it does matter.
Just having really great teachers who I struggled at points, you know.
But then they brought me back up.

Did you go through imaginary numbers
like square root of minus one? Yes.
Yeah. I did not do complex analysis from than
to do a real analysis class. OK.
Veronica Clarke on a complex analysis of December 14th is well, you nailed
complex analysis of Chicago, right? Well, my father's a mathematician, so I
lived it. We had lots of discussion.
I got to cubic functions. You know, I nailed it all.
I was like, first in the class. Well, then cubic foot showed up.
It was like, oh really? Yeah.
There was political geometry then. Oh amazingly I don't use complex
analysis now in forecasts.

Well, Veronica Clark, thank you so much
for Citigroup today. Lisa, what do you see here on this
Monday morning? It's a quiet Monday.
Look, we're not going to try to overplay the action, but I do think is
interesting, actually. I keep going back to what Katie Kaminski
said. This idea that she's seeing mixed
signals on the short term and long term. And to me, that's fastening.
The other thing that's fascinating to me is to see how closely you're
scrutinizing your phone right now to watch the game rather than anything
else, because honestly, that's probably what most people are doing.
We're going to do both. Yes.
You know, you listen to Bloomberg Radio while you're watching the tape, while
you're watching the screen. I mean, England came in with a corner
kick in. They hit the crossbar.
That sounds like the Hang Seng in love.

And then the.
Scored a goal, I didn't see the goal because I was talking to Ms.
Clarke here about the Fed meeting December 14th, I was distracted by our
guest. What is that about?
I know where you know, this is what people are watching.
They're watching The Daily Show. Yeah, exactly.
Other work actually getting labor market data rather than this week.
We're getting fed minutes on Wednesday afternoon.
I know you're very good at it. Listen to it.
Be seriously. I don't know where we are in time.
Let's go back to Miss Clarke. It hasn't been Wednesday.
You're trying to get out to cook the beast.
There's like 4000 data dump economics cities.
I know.

No amount of data.
We have so much data. I mean, the Fed minutes that day at you
are probably the most important thing. Are you telling me that of the data?
Of course she does. I skimmed them, I'd say.
But in all honesty, this is why she starts cooking now, because she's got to
read the Fed meeting that ends at 2 p.m. and scoured the data.
You look totally convinced, Tom. She skims them.
You take your family to them. You see where you have to lean over your
desk and look at the pages of heavily skimming.
Several some you know, a few of you. Many, huh?
I like that. Okay.
We'll see. We'll see what happens.
Sabre cells of the day to check. We do that with oil and eighty dollars a
barrel in America. Seventy nine fifty as well.
Dollar's stronger is an important tone today led by weak yen one forty one.
Seventy seven. Yeah.
Nowhere near the 148 level, but a bit of a reversal in the dollar weakness we've
seen the last number of days.

Must watch, must listen.
Peter Oppenheimer in the 9:00 o'clock hour with Lisa Abramowicz Oppenheimer of
Goldman Sachs. Please stay with us.
This is Bloomberg keeping you up to date with views some around the world with
the first word. I'm Lisa Matteo.
In Indonesia, at least 46 people are dead and about 700 others injured after
a five point six magnitude earthquake shook the western Java region today.
Several homes, stores and public buildings are damaged and landslides are
reported following the roughly seven second earthquake.
Tremors were felt in nearby cities, including the capital, Jakarta.
Ukraine plans to raise transit fees for Russian oil through the dress by
pipeline to Eastern Europe next year due to Moscow's attacks on the nation's
power supplies.

The operator of Ukraine's oil pipeline
network informed its Russian counterpart that, quote, continued destruction of
the Ukrainian energy infrastructure has led to a significant shortage of
electricity and increasing costs. A shortage of fuel spare parts.
That's according to a letter from the company seen by Bloomberg.
Twitter's head of France announced his departure.
Damian Gael led the region for about seven years.
A number of workers at the Paris office, which had fewer than 50 employees before
billionaire Elon Musk took over last month.
Our focus on advertiser relationships. Musk is considering additional layoffs
and has already slashed Twitter's workforce in half.
Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than
twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries.
I'm Lisa Matteo.

This is Bloomberg. This economy is still the most resilient
economy in the world. Having said that, economists are
predicting a shallow recession in in 2023 because the U.S.
economy is still very, quite into connected with the rest of the world.
We expect a rebound in 20, 24 years from France and New York.
Johnny Philly on providing gains to BNP Paribas.
USA as their chief executive officer. Always a good conversation.
And particularly we tilted it towards France.
Could they repeat in the World Cup? They had a very tough injury this
weekend and off to see on that.

For those of you watching.
Thank you for watching. England, France, England, Paul Sweeney 3
0. Right now we've been watching that as we
can hear, Lisa Abramowitz with trenchant analysis is preparing for the nine
o'clock hour. I'll prepare for England and Wales this
afternoon. That'll be fun right now.
And this is not fun because it's William Cohan taking on a very difficult topic,
which is power failure. And this is simply the collapse of an
institution of my childhood. Power failure.
William Cohan, thank you so much for 700 plus pages on this.
My childhood was moving west on the New York State Thruway by the industrial
might of Jack Welch's America, the Jeep factory in Schenectady and all Welch
coming from Pittsfield, Massachusetts, as well.
When did they begin to fail? Was it the financialization of a light
bulb maker? Oh, Tom, you know, first of all, thank
you for having me. It's great to see you again.
Look, I think, you know, Judy, credit, which became G capital, started in the
Depression to help finance a people's acquisition of Jihye Lee products,
appliances, etc..

Jack, however, when he took it over,
recognize that there was a huge arbitrage opportunity between GS triple
A credit rating and its low cost of capital and what it could lend that
money out at large spreads, including with Lawrence Tom, which was something
that Mike Milken perfect did. And I started my career on Wall Street G
capital financing leveraged buyouts. So I actually did it myself for two
years. And so Jack built that business up so
that it was almost 50 percent of GS profits.
And he understood that business. I think he understood the risks of that
business. Right.
He also people like Gary Wendt in charge there who understood the risks in that
business. The people side of your book is
absolutely phenomenal. Page 296, a guy named Bob Nardelli joins
up Old Forge, Pa., between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton.
You turn the page. He's got Walter Mack, Mack McNerney
going to New Trier and whatnot. My mother went there as well.
It's a people book, which is the person we should focus on when we look at the
collapse of generous electric.

Well, you know,
it takes a village sometimes. I mean, Jeff Immelt was obviously the
CEO for 17 years from 2001 to 2000, 17. So, I mean, he he gets the lion's share
of the blame, I'm afraid. You know, did Jack sort of set him up
for failure? That's a question that people are
wondering. I got an ad in.
How does he applied? Mathematician from Dartmouth screw up so
bad? Did it was a single mistake that Mr.
Immelt made or was he just a victim of the times?
You know, I think he made a series of what he thought were the right
decisions, but it turned out in retrospect to be the wrong decision.
Whether it was, you know, buying Alstom, selling NBC Universal to
cheaply kind of freaking out during the 2008 financial crisis or getting out of
G.E.

Capital, bringing in try on Nelson Peltz
thinking that Nelson Peltz would ratify his vision for G.E.
and then promising earnings per share that he couldn't achieve.
That was the end. I mean, it's not dissimilar to what just
happened with Bob Cheap CAC. And Bob, I.
Well, Disney, I mean, let's rip up the script here.
Bill Cohen, you could do this. I'm sure you're going to write on Iger
and Disney here and in five years. House of cards, money and power.
Now, power failure. Could this process exist today or are
the markets so open, invisible, particularly to activism that we
couldn't redo G.

Welch to Immelt.
Well, you know, Jeanne was really a very harsh company when Jack when Jeff
thought it would be a good idea to invite Nelson Peltz to come into the
equity of G.E. in 2015 to ratify his decision to sell
G.E. capital.
Right. You know, the DAX didn't have to happen.
So, I mean, Daniel obviously went into Disney earlier this year, spent a
billion dollars. So the stock is down 40 percent and
moved to act. Nelson posted the same thing when he saw
that Jeff Immelt no longer had control of the company and he did it again,
unfortunately, when it was time for Jack.
John Flannery to leave after 15 months.

Bill Cohen not to sell one of your ex
books. I know this tacky in a book interview.
But I've got to go to Money and Power and your definitive guide to Wall
Street's Goldman Sachs. Your thoughts on the present state of
Goldman Sachs. The market's challenges and perhaps a
cultural challenge that David Solomon faces right now.
What would you look forward to for Mr. Solomon and Goldman Sachs?
Constantly evolving. Tom?
You know this as well as anyone. Goldman is extremely nimble.
David is a very clever, smart guy, you know.
Has he made missteps? You know, of course.
I mean, he tried to get the bank into more retail banking with Marcus and
making loans and cash management. Maybe that was a tougher business than
he thought. You know, his trading business had a
great quarter last quarter. Investment banking has had a rough year
across the street. Trading helped Goldman trade.
Goldman is a perfectly designed creature to take advantage of opportunities in
the financial markets. They have been doing that for 160 plus
years. They will continue to do it.
They are one of the oldest surviving financial institutions we have in this
country.

They know how to survive.
I'm going to call this the Daniel Yergin equivalent.
William Cohen with this folks power and failure.
Bill Cohen, thank you. Cohen, thank you so much.
The thickness will of fear you 700 plus pages of Cohen.
I won't mince words. It reads like Daniel Yergin.
It just reads wonderfully supple, wonderfully fluid here from all the
different people, including Bob Nardelli and on and on to the collapse of this
American icon, power failure, the rise and fall of an American icon.
I really can't say enough about it here today.
Futures negative, 12 tapes a little improved here.
And the tape is quiet.

You could see on the Bloomberg
launchpad, the red in the green, the way it posits.
What kind of day it is. And it's a day waiting for a lot of
economic data into Tuesday and a ton of data, as we heard from Veronica Clarke
on Wednesday as well. And then on to Friday and on seriously
into a tumultuous December. It's gonna be interesting to see where
we sit on December 15th as well. Let me do a complete data check.
We sort of avoided that today. My fear would have never done that for
even watching England or in Ferro would have done a complete day to check.
Futures improve negative 13, Dow futures negative eleven SPF 24 on a VIX, not
twenty three point eighty three. A more constructive tape in the last
hour. Bonds boring.
We won't go there. I'm going to go to the dollar stronger
today by a good seven tenths of a percent.
RTX. Why euro under 1 0 3 1 0 2 fifty five.
This is Bloomberg Surveillance..

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