Our next disturbance will move through the ArkLaTex to begin the weekend and will bring the threat of strong to severe storms Friday night. The threat of rain continues Saturday with windy and cooler conditions. A streak of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday.
Friday night storms: While the ArkLaTex enjoys sunshine Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop to the west of the ArkLaTex over Central Texas. These storms will begin to move east Friday evening and will move into the western part of the area during the middle of the evening. Fortunately for us, the storms will be at their strongest close to where they develop to our west. While they likely will be weakening as they move into the area, we will still have a chance that a few could be severe with damaging wind and possible large hail as the main issues. The Storm Prediction Center still indicates that we have a marginal to slight severe weather risk with the highest risk over the NW quarter of the area.
Any tornadoes? The risk for tornadoes is looking very low for most of the area. If we are going to have any issues with rotating storms, it will likely be over the NW quarter of the area in NE TX. Futurecast shows that possibility below. Other hi-res models also show a low-end tornado risk mainly over NE TX.
Futurecast timing: Futurecast shows the storms that develop over Central Texas will move into the northwest half of the area by the middle of Friday evening. It and most other hi-res models show that we could be looking at a rather lengthy period Friday evening and Friday night where storms that produce heavy rain will be possible. Rain could be rather limited over the rest of the area Friday night. As the main upper-level disturbance tracks near the ArkLaTex Saturday, additional showers with a little bit of thunder will be possible. Once again the heaviest rain will be over the northern third of the area. This rain will gradually end Saturday night and the clouds will quickly decrease as this disturbance moves away from our area. Sunshine will return Sunday and will likely stick around through much of next week.
Rainfall potential: Rainfall totals could be rather limited over most of our area. On the other hand, there is good model agreement that we could see some somewhat impressive totals of two to nearly four inches over the northwest corner of the area.
Long-range outlook: We will settle into a dry weather pattern Sunday. This break from storms will likely last through most of next week. There is still a great deal of uncertainty, but our next chance for a few storms could hold off until next Friday. Above-normal temperatures will return next week with highs warming into the middle 80s by next Friday. A few upper 80s will be possible. Overnight lows will begin the period in the 50s and warm into the 60s by the end of next week.
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