A mixture of rain and freezing rain will continue across the ArkLaTex Tuesday night. The threat of ice will end Wednesday with attention turning to the threat of flood-producing rain Wednesday night and Thursday. A warming trend begins Friday with sunshine.
The chance of ice will be highest Tuesday night: A Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning continue for parts of the ArkLaTex Tuesday night. Most of the area stayed above freezing Tuesday and experienced rain. Temperatures Tuesday remained in the 30s and lower 40s. It will likely be a few degrees colder Tuesday night. Consequently, the chance of experiencing icing on roadways will be highest tonight into early Wednesday morning. Once temperatures rise above freezing Wednesday, they will likely stay there and our ice worries will be over. The graphic below from the Weather Prediction Center indicates the chance of experiencing freezing rain around our area. Ice looks promising for Texarkana but remains a rather slim possibility for Shreveport and the southern half of the area where temperatures could remain above freezing.
This graphic from WPC shows how much ice accumulation we could see around the area, notice that the accumulations will be highest over the northwestern and western edges of the area. This is the part of the ArkLaTex where temperatures will be below freezing the longest. Here amounts will likely exceed ¼”. Ice accumulations could also exceed 1/4″ over the western half of SW AR mainly in Hempstead, Nevada, and Columbia counties. Texarkana will likely start seeing ice accumulate Tuesday evening. A little over 1/10″ of ice is possible in Texarkana. Shreveport will have a chance of seeing some very light ice accumulation. The low in Shreveport will be at 32 or 33 degrees. At these temperatures, icing could be rather scattered and confined to elevated surfaces.
Keep an eye on the thermometer: The only difference between rain and freezing rain is the temperature at the surface. If the temperature is above 32 you are seeing rain. If it’s 32 or below, it’s freezing rain. So if you have to travel tonight and Wednesday morning, keep an eye on the thermometer and use extra caution. It doesn’t take much ice to make travel dangerous.
Futurecast: Futurecast shows that most of the area will likely stay all rain for most of the next few days. The main issues with ice could develop over the northeastern, northern, and western edges of the area. Areas of pink indicate where Futurecast shows that some freezing rain will be possible. Notice that the precipitation will become all rain Wednesday. We will likely see the precipitation remain rather scattered Tuesday night and much of Wednesday. The rain will increase in intensity and coverage late Wednesday, Wednesday night into Thursday. This is when we will transition to more of a flood threat.
Flood Watch in effect: Futurecast and most models indicate that parts of the area will see some more heavy rain. Right now it still appears that most of the area will receive an additional inch of precipitation. Amounts will be highest over East Texas and Northwest Louisiana where totals could exceed two inches from now through Thursday. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the area. This rain outlook is not good news for those with interests on the lakes near Shreveport. Flood Warnings are in effect for both Wallace Lake and Cross Lake. Both are expected to rise an additional 3 to 5 feet by the end of the weekend based on current rainfall projections.
Finally some sunshine and a warming trend: We will likely see the return of sunshine across the ArkLaTex Friday. This sunshine will stick around through next Monday with a nice warming trend. Highs over the next few days will be in the 30s and 40s. We will likely warm into the 50s Friday and Saturday and into the 60s starting Sunday. The good news is that the mild temperatures will stick around through all of next week with highs likely staying in the 60s. We will have a chance for more rain that could be heavy during the middle of next week.
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