I keep hearing individuals and also colleagues claim that the coronavirus is “” as dangerous as a typical flu””. However this is not true. We are taking care of a virus that is far more transmittable and likewise a lot more hazardous. An individual infected with the influenza infects in between 1.4 and 1.8 other individuals generally relying on which influenza virus we use for comparison. A person contaminated with coronavirus infects two to 3.11 other individuals on standard. We are dealing with a greatly expanding epidemic. Every 3-4 days the variety of signed up instances doubles. Allow’s check out the that figures, which are effectively offered right here on the Worldometer web page. We see the situations outside China right here. On March 8th, we had 29,256 cases and also 4 days earlier – one, 2, 3, four – we had 14,905 situations, which has to do with an increasing period of 4 days. And also how does this search in Austria? Below are the figures for the last few days. On the 4th of March, we still had 29 cases and also on the 9th of March these had already risen to 157. Allow'' s determine the increasing period: the 4th of March to the 9th of March, that is 5 days.On the 9th of March we had 157 instances. On the 4th of March there were 29. Which means that 157 is equivalent to 29 times 2 to the power of x where x is the number of doubling periods. If we now solve the formula for x, we obtain 2.44. That is the variety of doubling periods that remain in these 5 days. So if we would like to know just how long a doubling interval lasts, we have to split 5 by 2.44 as well as we obtain an increasing period of 2.1 days.So it seems that the virus increases much faster right here than in the rest of the non-Chinese globe. We definitely have a little number of cases in Austria and also the analytical variant is consequently greater. Nevertheless, these figures are anything however encouraging. If we assume a doubling period of 3 days, as described in various other literary works, 4 million Austrians can already be infected in 45 days. Below, herd immunity would possibly be achieved and the epidemic would after that lower once again. This certainly, is only supplied that we continue on as in the past and also act as if this were a flawlessly regular flu.So, if we do not assist to prolong the doubling period, after that in 18 days we will certainly have extra situations than there are
currently in Italy. Today is the 10th of March as well as there are 9,172 instances there. In just 18 days! Currently how does the illness progress? We understand from literature that 81 %of infections with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are mild. These people can be healed while staying at home. 14 %are severe and require a hospital bed and 5% are vital. These 5% requirement extensive treatment, i.e. a bed in the intensive treatment system. Allow us see how lots of health center beds there remain in Austria.According to the Federal Ministry, there were 67,000 health center beds in Austria in 2018. And the number of beds are there in the extensive care devices? According to this magazine we have 23.4 extensive treatment beds per 100,000 citizens in Austria. So 23.4 extensive treatment beds per 100k population. Austria currently has 8.8 million inhabitants. So 23.4 times 88 makes 2059 intensive treatment beds, which apparently exist in Austria. However these beds are currently not all uninhabited. A lot of them currently have people in them. So if we think that we can just free 50% of these beds, i.e. about 1000, for COVID-19 people, when will we reach our limitation? In around 21 days, after that we will have 1000 critically sick COVID-19 people in Austria as long as absolutely nothing adjustments in the increasing interval. Afterwards there will certainly be no more beds for the seriously ill patients.These patients will certainly be infected within the following couple of days. The incubation duration of COVID-19 is 5.2 days usually approximately about 14 days at many in many individuals. If we attract this right into our curve below, we see that the coming week will certainly be exceptionally vital for the program of the epidemic in Austria. The first patients that are no much longer able to get an extensive treatment bed will become contaminated in the coming days if we do nothing to avoid it. Currently I’ll chat concerning possibly one of the most crucial image of the entire epidemic.The left curve reveals what happens if the epidemic continues untreated. There will undoubtedly be an overload on the wellness system. The death price would certainly after that go far beyond the described 2.5%at this stage since we simply can not run as well as supply ample healthcare. The appropriate contour shows what occurs if the appropriate measures are taken, if we practice hand hygiene, prevent group gatherings, job from residence, and also do not take a trip needlessly. After that we can manage to delay the epidemic so that it does not cause an overload of the wellness care system. Only if we do well in this can we maintain the death price low.
