[Music] Actually, today I wanted to make a.
video about dark energy. And also what drives deep space apart. But obviously the corona virus turned.
every little thing upside down. And afterwards it'' s concerning something totally various, particularly what is.
driving our culture apart. On the one hand radical quarantine steps,.
on the other hand records that everything is just hysteria, that every little thing is exaggerated.
[Introductory] I may be speaking regarding something today that.
in a month'' s time will only make us smile slightly. Yet right now you can'' t smile about it., because there are reports on the Internet claiming: If SARS-CoV-19 had not been discovered, we.
would not have observed the outbreak of the pandemic whatsoever. In various other words: if there were no other way of.
in fact finding this infection with the proper examinations, after that we.
wouldn'' t have noticed it whatsoever. Today we would just bring on as in the past. This is almost.
the core of a message that, garnished with a few conspiracy theory concepts, is.
currently circulating online.
And also I don'' t even know how many queries I'' ve already got concerning
this. and also we desire to clear up that now. So to comprehend just how one can create this idea.
that there can be an around the world hype concerning an infection: In 2009/2010 there was.
the supposed swine influenza. And afterwards the Globe Health Organization proclaimed a.
pandemic. So almost the like now.
It simply didn'' t develop at all. It was one of the.
weakest influenza outbreaks ever before. So there were just 3,000 deaths in Europe. Throughout Europe. As well as right here in Germany, 2,500 individuals pass away daily. As well as with a.
regular flu epidemic, for example, there are 40,000 even more fatalities in wintertime. And how is it.
now? Exactly how are the numbers currently? Well, 4,000 people died throughout Europe. It.
'' s all still somehow in the order of size that is to be expected. That'' s the disagreement of those. that think it'' s all hysteria. It'' s all absolutely overstated. Let''
s do. stats! And also in fact obtain to the base of the numbers. Normally, in Italy
, out of. a complete population of 60 million individuals, about 2,000 people pass away everyday.
This certainly. changes with the seasons. Yesterday, March
18, 2020., there were 475 more fatalities. That suggests we have an increase of well.
over 20%. Whoa. And also we would n'' t have discovered that in the statistics'? Let ' s take a. extremely details instance: the city of Bergamo.120,000 inhabitants. Normally. 10 individuals die in Bergamo a day. And also currently a standard of 20 people for a month. This means that the assumption that we would not have observed these numbers in the stats is.
currently wrong today, March 19, 2020. And a really quick detour into the.
theory of science: empirical theories should be able to fail despite experience. And also this.
hypothesis failed specifically because of experience. The most crucial question, of course, is: Can this.
death fact guide us regarding our actions? You can do that, for.
a little minute.
We have approximately 2,500 deaths in Germany every day. Good. And.
now a shooter comes and fires 10 people. Can you suggest that you are.
no more seeking it, since 10 individuals, 10 additional fatalities, that is not statistically.
visible? Of course not. As well as it can'' t be the instance
. that by avoiding.
any type of steps, we overload our health care system as if the physicians there get into.
a situation that no one can, absolutely nobody can expect, particularly to.
triage.
The triage basically comes from the circumstance in battle. We have a medical facility, so.
we have a certain variety of beds, we have a certain variety of gadgets. If.
I have a lot of sick people currently, that do I send out these devices to? To.
whom do I connect a ventilator, for instance? To triage implies to kind. Sort out really. This appears of an overall shortage. When there is.
simply nothing else way. Numerous, many more patients are showing up than.
we can also treat in the healthcare facilities. If we reach that factor, as.
has in fact happened in Italy, that'' s. that ' s generally the end of civil society
. At the very least at this minute. Exactly how away are we in Germany from.
the triage circumstance? You need to recognize that.
about 5% of the people experiencing from COVID-19 call for ventilation
.
As well as for that you have to know once more that air flow is anything however.
an easy “” yes, I'' ll offer you a little bit more.
oxygen””. Rather, air flow is a clinical.
high performance that can only be performed by specialists. And which is really delicate and the least error can be fatal to the client. Air flow is a traumatic experience, you put on'' t truly want that. According to the specialists
., we have 28,000 intensive treatment beds in hospitals in Germany. The majority of are now.
furnished with ventilators. The federal government has just bought 10,000 new ventilators
. Nevertheless, this will certainly take place for many years.
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00:05:43,000–> > 00:05:.
48,000. Yes, and afterwards, according to specialists, we currently have.
around 80% tenancy of these extensive treatment beds. As well as in turn, the.
healthcare facilities state that if you delay procedures that can be postponed,.
then about half of the intensive treatment beds can now be offered for this epidemic. That means we have 14,000 intensive treatment beds with ventilators.
offered in Germany. Currently you can ask on your own how large the number.
of newly contaminated individuals can be daily, with 5% of clients who need.
ventilation, to ensure that the wellness system does not break down? For this it is required to recognize.
how much time a client needs to be aerated, which is generally around a week. Then 2,000 new individuals can be brought right into this healthcare system daily.
as well as they can be ventilated.
If we now extrapolate from the 5%, specifically the 2,000 each day,.
to 100%, after that we can specify the limitation for the German medical care system. Particularly: 40,000 freshly contaminated people a day. This is the limitation. And when do we reach them? Yesterday, we had a rise of.
3,000 brand-new cases. The day before from 2,000, the day previously from 1,200, the day.
before from 900. That suggests we have a.
74.
00:07:18,000–> > 00:07:24,000.
increase, in the new infection rate or in the.
contaminated rate just how to desire, from concerning yes, between a quarter and also a third. If we now determine with a third, after that we have and I need to read that.
now, 4,000 today, around 5,300 tomorrow, then we would certainly have 7,000 the day after tomorrow, and so on and also so it continues.
as well as in 8 days we would have 39,000 freshly infected people.Without countermeasures, with unattended,.
exponential growth of a quarter or a third. As we see it presently,.
a 3rd of the German extensive care system has reached its limitations in 8 days as well as a quarter in 11.
days. [Audio Impact] Our computation goes quite well with.
a computation published by Imperial University in London. According to this, without.
countermeasures, if nothing were done whatsoever, 500,000 people would die in Great Britain, ie in the.
UK, and also 2.2 million in the United States. And.
also if there were really restrictive measures in both nations, the.
fatality prices would almost be halved.
So you'' re discussing 250,000 fatalities in the UK,.
Excellent Britain and 1.1 million to 1.2 million in the United States. As well as Imperial.
College states that despite having optimal control of the epidemic in Britain and also the.
United States, it requires 8 times as lots of intensive treatment beds as there are. In the light of.
these figures as well as these forecasts, the actions that governments around the.
globe are taking appear anything yet hysterical. And last yet not least, a charm.
to the reporters who offer area to such fake information, one should not.
leave it uncommented.
All the very best!.
