SINCE AS YOU MENTION, SOME FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAVE REAL ACTUALLY LOOSEN AND YOU DISCUSSED A FEW SECONDS AGO THAT THE MARKETPLACE DOESN'' T SEEM TO BELIEVE THE FED. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? SO THEY HAVE TO ACT TOUGHER, TALK TOUGHER AS WELL AS DO MORE POINTS TO– >> > > WELL HERE IS THE DANGER YOU HAVE THE OTHER DAY, YOU SAW THE DECLINE BUT THE FACT IS THAT WAS NOVEMBER WHEN HOME MORTGAGE FEES PEAKED IN EARLY NOVEMBER WELL THEY'' RE DOWN 90 BASIS THINGS SINCE AFTER THAT. THAT DOESN'' T REALLY AID YOU A WHOLE LOT. JUNK SPREADS, GOT 150 BASIS FACTORS CONSIDERING THAT IT PEAKED IN EARLY OCTOBER, LATE SEPTEMBER. THAT DOESN'' T REALLY DO A GREAT DEAL FOR THE FED. THE 10-YEAR TREASURY, WHICH YOU SEE EVERY DAY, DOWN 60 BASIS DETAILS ALL THAT DOESN'' T DO A GREAT DEAL FOR THE FED. EVERY ONE OF THESE DIFFERENT POINTS BEING LESS COMPLICATED BECAUSE THEN CLEARLY THE SECURITIES MARKET SEEN THE 3600 LOWS NEAR 10%. BUT THAT DOESN'' T DO MUCH IF YOU ' RE THE FED AS WELL AS CHATTING CONCERNING JUST HOW MUCH THE MARKETPLACE IS DOWN AND NOT DOWN, SINCE '' 19, PRIOR TO COVID, WE GOT 7, 8%YEARLY RETURNS THAT IS NOT SO BAD HISTORICALLY NOW THIS YEAR IS NOT GOOD BUT THE LAST 3 YEARS AS WELL AS I'' M SPEAKING THE END OF '' 19, PRIOR TO COVID, I SUGGEST WE HAVE REASONABLE RETURNS FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS BASED ON THAT RATE AS WELL AS YOU KNOW, I DON'' T KNOW IF 19 WAS THERE, OR IF IT WAS A NADIR OUT THERE BEFORE COVID STRUCK SO, I INDICATE, I'' M LOOKING AT THAT AS WELL AS I'' VE GOT– I ' VE GOT TO– I INDICATE, WE DON ' T HAVE COLLABORATED TIGHTENING UP AROUND THE ENTIRE WORLD.AND EVERYONE TIGHTENING AT THE SAME TIME FREQUENTLY. AND I PUT ON'' T. AS WELL AS I DON ' T HAVE PEOPLE TELL ME THEY ' RE GOING FOR FURTHER TIGHTENING AS WELL AS THEY DON'' T TELL ME IN WHICH THEY ' RE GOING TO GO AND YOU JUST WEAR ' T AND ALSO 2 YEARS HERE LISTED BELOW WHERE THEY TELL ME, IF THEY ' RE GOING THIS WAY TYPICALLY, SO MUCH LISTED BELOW IT YOU SIMPLY PUT ON'' T SO I HAVE THESE– IF YOU WISHED TO CALL THEM AND I RECOGNIZE PEOPLE SAY IN FLATION IS DOWN AND THEY SHOULD DO THIS AS WELL AS DO THAT AND ALSO THEY'' LL TELLING ME EVERY ONE OF THIS STUFF SINCE THEY'' RE WORRIED ABOUT THIS OTHER UNDERLYING INEQUALITY IN THE LABO MARKET BUT THEY DON'' T WANT RISING COST OF LIVING TO HOLD AND OBTAIN HIGHER YOU WEAR'' T WANT TO HAVE A CONSTANT STATE THAT YOU THINK AFTER YOU DO DETAILS AT 4% OR 4.5%, THEY WANT INFLATION AT 2% SO, THEY'' RE LOOKING AT THE ON WHEN THE RISING COST OF LIVING COMES DOWN FROM 8%, IT IS GOING TO BOIL DOWN TO 4% OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT THEY DON'' T INTEND TO GET IN FRONT– THEY NEED TO ENTER FRONT OF THAT.THEY '
RE NERVOUS ABOUT IT AND ALSO THE ECB IS NERVOUS ABOUT IT. SO IT IS– IT IS WHAT IT IS >> > > DAVID, I TIN'' >> T– >> > > AS WELL AS IT IS– > > AND ALSO CLOSING SHOP, WHAT DO> YOU DO > > SAY THAT? > > I TIN'' T PICTURE YOU ' RE THROWINGIN THE TOWEL AND ALSO CLOSING UP SHOT OVER THIS. IT IS A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT, BUT WHAT ARE YOU DOING >> > > NO, WE ' RE NOT CLOSING UP SHOP LISTEN, WHAT I DO AND WHAT OTHER INDIVIDUAL DO, WHAT A NORMAL FINANCIERS CHECK OUT THIS, YOU MUST HOLD SUPPLIES AND ALSO APPEARANCES WITH THESE THINGS AND ALSO FOR THE LASTING.
SO TO A PARTICULAR LEVEL THAT SUGGESTS IF YOU'' RE STOCK PORTFOLIO IS– YOU'' RE STOCK MARKET FROM 50% TO LONG TERM, YOU WILL MOST LIKELY BE LESS LONG THAT IS WHAT IT SUGGESTS TO ME. SINCE THE TYPICAL INDIVIDUAL NEEDS TO NOT BE MOVING. WE'' RE GOING WITH A WARREN BUFFETT WOULD KEEP THINGS PERMANENTLY SO HE DOESN'' T NEED TO PAY TAX OBLIGATIONS ON IT. BUT ME, AS A BUSH FUND SUPERVISOR, I'' M GOING TO LEAN SHORT.'I ' LL BE SHORT WHEN AS WELL AS I'' LL DEMOC– I ' M NORMALLY AN OPTIMISTIC. I JUST HAVE THAT SORT OF– LEAN THAT MEANS THEREFORE IT RESEMBLES, I WOULD PROBABLY SAY I'' M LEANING SHORT ON THE EQUITY MARKETS.YOU KNOW, SO,
RIGHT NOW. BECAUSE I ASSUME– I ASSUME THE UPSIDE-DOWN DOESN'' T MAKE FEELING WHEN I HAVE SO LOTS OF INDIVIDUALS TELLING ME NUMEROUS CENTRAL BANKS TELLING ME WHAT THEY WANT TO DO. WHAT THEY EXPECT TO ACCOMPLISH I SUGGEST THEY HAVE– AS WELL AS IT HAS– AS WELL AS EVERYONE COME ON AS WELL AS SAY WELL THIS IS GOING, WELL THEY KNOW THAT THINGS BUT THEY'' RE WORRIED ABOUT THE UNDERLYING STUFF AND BY THE METHOD, IF YOU ASSUME THAT THEY'' RE MISDOING, YOU UNDERSTAND OUT THERE BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO DROP, WELL MAYBE, MAYBE THEY'' LL TIME OUT AND ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT– AND I WEAR'' T KNOW WHAT'THEY ' RE PHRASE, BUT MAYBE THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A SMALL ECONOMIC DOWNTURN OF KIND AND ALSO IMPACT COSTS AND WITH THE MARKET, LISTEN, YOU SEE THESE– I SAW SOMEBODY ELSE ON YOUR SHOW RECENTLY THEY HAVE A 220 PROFITS APPROXIMATE FOR THE S&P.
WELL AT THESE RATES OF INTEREST, WHERE DO WE HAVE MULTIPLES WHEN WE HAVE 1% PRICES TO ENSURE THAT IS THE CONCERN IN THE SECURITIES MARKET RIGHT NOW WHAT NEED TO BE THE MULTIPLE. AND JOE, YOU'' VE EXIST FOR A GREAT DEAL OF MARKETS, NOT TO PROVIDE YOUR AGE AWAY ON TELEVISION, BUT THESE MULTIPLES, WHAT NEEDS TO THE MULTIPLE BE. WE'' VE ENDURED MULTIPLES, WHEN WE WERE CHATTING 2010, THE MULTIPLE WAS LIKE 11, 12 BACK AFTER THAT, OKAY UPCOMING OUT OF 2009 AND ALSO THOSE WERE THOSE RATES I MEAN, TO REACH THIS MULTIPLE NOW, IF YOU HAVE 225 TIMES 16, IT IS 3600 I'' M NOT RECOMMENDING 225 IS RIGHT OR YOU COULD SEE WHAT INDIVIDUALS ARE ANTICIPATING ON YOUR SHOW IF IT IS A 16 MULTIPLE, YO.
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