Our second round of strong to severe storms moves through the area Tuesday evening. Our highest severe weather risk arrives Wednesday afternoon. Sunshine will return Thursday and most of Friday with more rain expected for Easter weekend.
Tuesday evening storms: Our next round of potential severe weather is expected Tuesday evening. Strong to severe storms will develop to our west Tuesday afternoon. These will march east through our area Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a level 2 slight severe weather risk for our area. All severe weather threats will be possible. These storms will likely be at their strongest as they enter the western edge of the area early this evening. They will likely slowly weaken as they move through our area. The loop below contains the latest SPC forecasts for today and tonight as well as watches, warnings, flooding potential, and the latest power outages.
Severe risk increases Wednesday: Our best chance of seeing more widespread severe weather issues will arrive Wednesday. Thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday morning over the western half of the ArkLaTex. The broken line of storms will slowly strengthen as it moves east and will probably be at its strongest as it departs the eastern edge of the area late Wednesday afternoon. SPC indicates that there will be a slight risk where the storms develop over the western half of the area and a level 3 enhanced risk over the eastern half of the area. All severe weather threats will be possible including the chance for some tornadoes. That risk will be the highest east of Shreveport and Texarkana. The loop below contains the severe weather outlook for the week ahead including SPC’s Wednesday forecasts for wind, hail, and tornadoes.
Futurecast outlook: Futurecast shows the cluster of storms mentioned earlier weakening as it moves across the ArkLaTex Tuesday evening. The severe weather threat will likely be over for most of the area by midnight. It also shows our final round of thunderstorms developing over E & NE TX Wednesday morning. You can clearly see the expected increase in the intensity of the storms as they move east into NW LA and S AR. As of right now, it appears that Tuesday evening’s storms will move into both TXK and SHV at around 9 pm. Wednesday’s storms should increase over Texarkana early in the morning and arrive in Shreveport sometime around midday. We will likely see the clouds move out Wednesday evening in the wake of the storms. Expect a mostly clear sky Wednesday night as drier air moves in. Thursday is looking mostly sunny and pleasant.
Rainfall potential: Despite the potential for two rounds of storms from now through Wednesday, it appears that rainfall totals for most of the ArkLaTex should be rather limited. Most of the area will see amounts well below one inch. We will likely have a few swaths of over 1” over the north and possibly eastern edges of the area.
Rainfall potential through Wednesday
Easter weekend outlook: After some sunshine Thursday and most of Friday, another shot at some scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to our area just in time for Easter weekend. We will likely see some scattered showers with some thunder beginning Friday night. That chance of rain will likely continue through Easter. Although severe weather cannot totally be ruled out, the risk is looking very low at this point. High temperatures this weekend will likely be near 80 degrees.
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