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As Election Day draws closer, it’s getting tougher and tougher to get a clear read on the political landscape. On the one hand, the so-called fundamentals are still working against the Democrats: President Joe Biden’s approval rating is well under water, voters overwhelmingly think the country is going in the wrong direction, and high inflation is persisting. On the other, there are growing signs the party has benefited from the backlash to the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case.

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