Temperatures have been gradually warming up over the past several days. That trend will end as we head into the weekend. Another warming trend will begin Sunday and continue until another cold front brings some rain late next week.
A warm Friday & cooler weekend: While overnight lows have been in the 50s all week long, daytime temperatures have been getting a little warmer each day. Highs Thursday have climbed into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures Friday will likely stay a little above normal with lows Friday morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Daytime highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s. Cooler air will return this weekend with lows Saturday morning dipping into the mid to upper 50s. Highs Saturday afternoon will retreat to the upper 70s to lower 80s. We will end the weekend with lows Sunday morning in the low to middle 50s and daytime highs in the low to middle 80s.
The dry weather continues: The reason for the cooling trend will be a cold front that will pass through the area Thursday night. Futurecast shows that ahead of the front, we will see a few more clouds Thursday night. Expect to see plenty of sunshine once again Friday. We will stay dry on both Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sunshine and clouds.
Another warm-up leads to rain: Next week will feature another warming trend as we will begin with lows in the middle 50s and highs in the middle 80s. By Wednesday, expect lows to warm into the low to middle 60s as moisture gradually increases. Daytime highs will likely return to the upper 80s. That trend will end Thursday as a cold front will move through the area Wednesday night and bring a decent shot at some showers and thunderstorms. As we go into the last half of October, we will be entering our secondary severe weather season. Fortunately, severe weather is looking unlikely with the passage of this front. Models have backed off on the duration of this rain event and no longer show rain around the area next Friday or next weekend.
How much rain? Since long-range models have removed the hope of rain next Friday and Saturday, rainfall totals are not looking nearly as high. Right now it appears that we could see totals of less than 1/4” with much of the area potentially staying totally dry. We have not seen much consistency in model projections during the past several days. Given how this rain event is still several days away, the forecast will likely continue to change some.
TD 13 developing: Tropical Depression #13 will be developing in the Caribbean soon and will likely become Tropical Storm Julia and possibly Hurricane Julia. This system will continue to move towards the west with a landfall over Central America this weekend. It is looking unlikely that this will pose a threat to the ArkLaTex.
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