hi everyone welcome to today’s video so if you open up any report path right now you will see a lot of negative commentary that you know what that russia is killing ukraine oil prices are going to go up your neighbour is going to take your scooter and run away so basically if you examine the commentary of any investor right now they are simply trying to build a narrative that everything is negative the part stock market is going to go to dust we are going to do a rational analysis today backed by some figures data and look at specific commentary that is coming out very important video from the simple point of view that right now if you are a beginner in the stock market you will get super scared by this situation so i will structure this video into four specific parts one we will look at big investor treatise what are they saying about world markets today and why they are painting this narrative of brew guided that pig extended has ended beer and has started that’s one second we are going to analyze the current scenario and make a call whether the bullshit raced has actually resolved or not third we are going to take a look at some critical concludes as to why the markets are falling and how frets should you be with all these reasons fourth and finally i will give you my finding what i am doing this is not an investment advice but hopefully after this video you will have your nerves little bit calm down so with that perspective give us start the analysis so let me show you this chart which is market mode indicator from ticker tape so essentially this sticker tells you that how horrible or greedy parties are while acting in the markets right now so you can clearly see that people are fearful right now and when people are fearful you should be buying stuff not selling material but you will say i am reading newspaper i am watching news i am following vladimir putin on twitter so these people are scaring me what should i is being done and should i be selling everything so let us first and foremost understand the commentary and slant of large-hearted investors like mr shankar sharma and here is a small clip for you three long years and by the way there’s an interesting thing i want to share with you guys that back in uh i think april or may of last year we were running the data and the numbers and the analytics and a simple two-minute metric that how many years in a hundred year age do groceries go up consecutively okay now now the data is very interesting that after two shows the third year is a merely a 50 50 probability of being up okay now that’s normal there’s no there’s no great insight in that it’s the toss of copper but if there are three consecutive shows okay and i’m not talking plus one percent i necessitate an important like a plus 5 plus 8 plus 10 then the fourth here is almost almost a made is going to be a down now the likelihood of a fourth up here in a row is virtually zero that’s the long-term data so when i saw this data in april or may last year i said so the viewpoint that he has presented is very negative no doubt about that one central point that he has mentioned is if you make four consecutive years then the market has not gone up on year-on-year basis the probability of that happening is close to zero now if you discover such commentary you will get intrigued and also you will get super scared and you will sell your capitals should you be doing it and is this data correct so the answer is no this data is not correct not even remotely so let me show you the remedy data for example if you take a look at the longest bull races in its own history of stock market this is what you will see one great stretch this previous for 114 months four years is 48 months so from that special attitude this is much longer than four years so bull rolls can continue up to eight nine ten years too right same starts for upright crisis polouse run this was a period between 2009 to 18. This again was 112 “months time” so reasonably long period now same vanishes for berth struggle boom right so this is slightly older not very relevant data but still make us swiftly go through it so this was 49 to 56 74 to 80 then 82 to 87 then 2002 to 2007 there was a 60 month full running our big investors deliberately misleading you i don’t know but their presentations could be fairly open-ended for example bull feed necessitates a general upward veering busines that lasts for certain years now within this bull lead there can be small corrections that happen or even slightly deep corrections for example 15 20 corrections are very normal and there is nothing to be scared about as long as that man guided floor is intact now let us analyze the data for the latest three man lopes that happening here now the first bullshit passed happened here the second bulldog happened here and third cop extended happened here right now what would you say the first thing you will observe is between 1990 and 2000 this was a bull flee season and stock market returned a lot of returns and post 2000 which was the dot-com bubble volley these stock markets redressed quite a lot and this was the end of the officer then second policeman operated previous from approximately 2001 to 2008 and again five period of six years good coin obliged then in 2008 we had a crisis and this polouse roll likewise intent then came the third bull range and third bullshit led continued up until then 2020. So the quality i’m trying to tell you is that the pig run recently ceased it’s not as if that we are continuing that 2009 onward bull lead so when people tell you this story either you know what bull run has ended this that no the bullshit loped has started yes there is short-term pain that is going on in the market but this does not mean to say that the patrolman moved then ended now let me try to prove this point by making you to the nifty five-year chart so what you will see the first and foremost thing that you should focus on is the returns for five years it has been 93.39 in a five-year window are these enormou returns the answer is absolutely not that in the last five years the market unfortunately has not given very high returns 100 return in five years is not big in five years your fund should double-faced in kagger calls this is not even 15 yearly raise the second key point that i want you to notice from this diagram is this that this was the end of the man extended point in 2020 after this it croaked up and it is sideways consolidating there is no beer flow that is happening even now there is small correction that has already happened and there is sideways movement yes going forward the markets might rectify by another 15 who knows no one can guarantee but is this thing intact the answer is yes i would be very surprised if there is recession on placard or if there is 50 60 correction that happens in next few months or even in couple of years now can i guarantee that absolutely not i cannot get it on but by looking at the data knowledge i can conclude that this is not the end of the policeman run it is just the starting yes the markets have run up quite a lot no doubt about that so we might sideways consolidate this is the same thing that i have been saying over and over but this is definitely not the end of the polouse run now before i move on to the next section i want to show you something mathematically right which was this 95 return in the last five years as i pictured you from the nifty show what does this symbolize if you apply the rule of 72 please comment what rule of 72 is i have taught that on my direct several times so if you segment 72 by 15 it comes out to be 4.5 times right so what this proves is that in the last five years the kaggar compounded annual growth rate has been less than 15 percentage so if we are saying that you know what the market is in massive run-up no it is not in massive run-up anymore it has already deflated quite a lot can it go down further of course it can go down further no doubt about that but saying right now that the markets are overvalued no that is not correct now you would say that yakshat you know what you i have been hearing like so many commentaries the oil prices are going high-pitched there is like ukraine russia issue that is flaring up so what do you have to say and even i heard today that nse is into some scam so all these things are going to drag the market do you not agree yes in the short term these things might drag the market a little bit lower but let us try to break apart and understand these basic basic things in a very easy to understand language so let’s first and foremost talk about oil prices beings are giving really weird commentary on this that you know what that high oil prices are skyrocketing and that will decelerate growth in india and therefore a brew flowed will happen and therefore the economy will hurtle the rise will slow down this that so let’s analyze the historic oil prices and look at the correlation between increasing oil prices and the descend busines so you can draw a bumpy conclusion that for example so in 2000 there was a spike in the oil prices and time during that time the market crashed same in 2008 that thus that the high oil prices peaked now and there was a crash same nearly the same situation played out here that there was a sudden spike in the high oil prices now in 2020 this scenario did not play out because it was a pandemic or a healthcare based issue that impacted the world market not uh overheating of the economy issue but now the disagreement is being shaped that you know what just like in 2008 we are sitting in 2022 and again the high oil prices are creeping up now the word of the day today is creeping up so let me know what does that planned so high oil prices are slithering up and as the oil prices continue to climb that will lead to recession a disintegrate and bad things are going to happen so here are a couple of points regarding this so number one right now the oil prices have spiked because of russia ukraine crisis it’s a afford series oriented crisis and therefore the oil prices have gone up there is nothing wrong with that and it’s not alarmingly high-pitched for example if you take a look at the chart it is at eighty eight dollars a barrel in jan and “ive checked” the brent crude oil prices today it was approximately at ninety four dollars a barrel now if you go back to 2008 the high oil prices are 165 dollars a barrel so it was very high right now no such situation is being paid and this is not a very strong correlation that the oil price increase definitely “ve brought” a slowdown in the economy there is not a strong correlation there and therefore there is nothing to be scared about viewing oil prices now comes the next target russia ukraine conflict now okay i have made a separate video on russia ukraine you can go and watch it i have given my analysis but i’ll be brief and i’ll explain this to you in very easy to understand language in 2014 russia annexed crimea and there was temporary impact on the stock market extremely the russian stock market and after that the world stock market rebounds extremely very quickly and started throwing excess raise i pictured you that bull passage record this crimea’s annexation by russia was again a blip in that policeman roll floor all these geopolitical tensions keep on surfacing some residence or the other do you know how many countries china has been fighting with it has territorial feuds with 17 countries every now and then in south china sea china preserves on explosion and the establishment of more ruckus pottery deters on strong arming small nations that stores on happening regrettably or fortunately for the last couple of years china came super hectic with this coved treatment trouble after chewing so many at-bats and what not so therefore they are like you know taking it easy little bit in two years again they will start creating nuisance for a good deal of countries bottom line nonetheless is that bigger countries regrettably do not care about small countries like taiwan or small countries like tibet or small countries like ukraine it does not matter to them they will go back to their own homes and start handling their own crisis there will be no long-term trade sanctions or stopping of business with russia for this particular perspective so the business will go on there is absolutely no doubt about that now the third reason that people keep on pointing that we will affected a receding s because inflation has become out of control and there is no way that the governments are going to control it no they are going to control it they have infinite money reproducing strength so to say and they can keep on raising their obligation that’s the dance that they keep on doing and they have been doing it for the last one and a half decade and we met one of the biggest bull runs in its own history of the market from 2009 to 2020 onwards because of the exact quantitative easing dynamics having said this yes there are short-term stings in terms of inflation no doubt about that inflation has run haywire it is creating nuisance for the economy no doubt about that but the world countries cannot open not to grow so if you are taking a five year perspective on the market it seems like that there is no reason for you to be bearish about this sell satisfy be optimistic otherwise you might end up losing a lot of money so this imparts us to the final slouse what are some of the key things that i will recommend and what are some of the key things that i myself am implementing number one i am following contrarianism what it simply makes is that if people or big-hearted investors are giving negative note i’m going to go and do the opposite simply meant that if people are being super bearish and causing a great deal of that you know what this accident will happen this that i’m going to do the terminated opposite looking at this market feeling show and i am going to make opposite prestiges that is my strategy number one number two in the short term to midterm my goal is to invest majority of my money in companionships that are likely to survive a challenging phase for maybe a year and a half so so here i am taking positions in cash rich companies and some very strong jobs so from time to time i will keep on seeing more videos and “i m keeping” you aware about this situation third and finally i am avoiding story based firms specially ipo located organizations does it mean that i am not going to see do any tech assets no i am doing all my tech investments in the us and in the crypto cavity right now i’m not buying even one single stock in indian tech companionships as of now for the simple reason that it’s much easier to move tech oriented legends in the us or in the crypto nature compared to indian stock markets where there is less reliable knowledge for example if you check the valuation of a lot of ipoes in india go ipoes that i have formed so many videos on and i deliberately query beings not to invest in them they have been cut like anything in the market right now they have lost a lot of their valuation so there is no point in me putting my coin in these type of assets even this year there are a lot of companies that are going to launch their ipoes so please be very very careful and picky in terms of what ipos you are going to invest in i hope you experienced the video being given it a thumbs up that will help a lot and i will see you tomorrow you
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